The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case. Dr. Marc R. Stammbach / MD HZI Australia Bioenergy Australia 2017 Conference

Transcription

1 The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case Dr. Marc R. Stammbach / MD HZI Australia Bioenergy Australia 2017 Conference 1

2 The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case Source Separation and Kompogas Anaerobic Digestion 55,000 tpy AD Example Business Case Project Outcome Summary 2

3 Source Separation and Kompogas Anaerobic Digestion 3

4 We need at least three bins to achieve zero waste to landfill Energy & Compost from biowaste with anaerobic digestion Energy & Material from non recyclable waste with thermal treatment Recycling Compost & fertiliser Direct Recycling Glass, paper, metals Recycling Metals & minerals 4

5 Dry AD with Kompogas Closing the Nutrient Cycle while Generating Energy Food Waste Green Waste 1 t comingled bio-waste or Compost Soil conditioner / Fertilizer 60 Nm 3 Bio-Methane as GtG or CNG replaces 60 l Petrol / km drive 250 kwh electricity 5

6 Anaerobic Digestion with Kompogas Faedo, Italy (1 out of > 80 Kompogas References) Plant Capacity 32,000 t/a Green & Foodwaste Compost 29,000 t/a Biogas Production 3,800,000 Nm 3 /a Bio CNG Equivalent 2,100,000 Nm3/a Net Energy Efficiency 66 Nm 3 Bio CNG/t, 660 kwh/t 6

7 55,000 tpy AD Example 7

8 Example Kimbriki Tender, Sydney Dec 2016 Process 8

9 Example Kimbriki Tender, Sydney Dec 2016 Process Key Figures 55,000 tpy food & green waste Fully enclosed Feedstock decontamination AD for 0-60mm Composting & maturation of digestate and oversize biowaste in tunnels Decontamination of compost Weighbridge, education center, administration 9

10 Example Kimbriki Tender, Sydney Dec 2016 Drawing Courtesy NALG 10

11 Feedstock decontamination Organic material pre-treatment Intermediate storage in flat bunkers 11

12 Fully enclosed composting Composting tunnels Organics after high rate composting 12

13 Automated Filling and Emptying of Tunnels Automated filling Automated emptying through walking floor 13

14 Digester and Biogas to Energy Conversion Single Digester Combined Heat and Power (CHP) engine 14

15 Front-end and Back-end Processes are all Enclosed Automatic doors at biowaste reception Delivery of refined, matured compost to storage 15

16 Building Envelope Building during construction phase Final building wall 16

17 Business Case 17

18 20 Year Design, Build, Own, Operate, Transfer (DBOOT) Main design and project parameters: 55,000 tpy nominal biowaste capacity 30 year design life with several refurbishment cycles (hand over plant after 20 years to site owner) 30% equity and 70% project finance Foreign exchange risk hedged at Financial Close Minimum biomass quality defined (food to green ratio biogas yield, contamination residuals to landfill) Council to shift food waste to existing green waste bin & residual waste to stabilisation (excluded from this study): Overall a small sized installation with the constraints of an urban setting resulting in $212/t gate-fee Unknown management fees and council profit on top The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 18

19 Major Risk Elements for Design, Build, Own and Operate around Base Case Gate of Fee of 212 $/t Risk area Risk element Base case value Best case Worst Case Project EPC Price $45m $36m (-20%) $66m / +20%) 19

20 Major Risk Elements for Design, Build, Own and Operate around Base Case Gate of Fee of 212 $/t Risk area Risk element Base case value Best case Worst Case Project EPC Price $45m $36m (-20%) $66m / +20%) Finance Equity IRR 12.5% 11.25% (-10%) 15% (+20%) 20

21 Major Risk Elements for Design, Build, Own and Operate around Base Case Gate of Fee of 212 $/t Risk area Risk element Base case value Best case Worst Case Project EPC Price $45m $36m (-20%) $66m / +20%) Finance Equity IRR 12.5% 11.25% (-10%) 15% (+20%) Market Biomass quantity 55,000 tpy 66,000 tpy (+20%) 44,000 tpy (-20%) Compost ex-gate 20 $/t 40 $/t (+100%) 0 $/t (-100%) Electricity 80 $/MWh electrical 160 $/MWh (+100%) 40 $/MWh (-50%) Heat 0 $/MWh thermal 20 $/MWh (na) 0 $/MWh (-0%) 21

22 Major Risk Elements for Design, Build, Own and Operate around Base Case Gate Fee of 212 $/t Risk area Risk element Base case value Best case Worst Case Project EPC Price $45m 178 $/t 247 $/t Finance Equity IRR 12.5% 201 $/t 237 $/t Market Biomass quantity 55,000 tpy 177 $/t 266 $/t Compost ex-gate 20 $/t 207 $/t 217 $/t Electricity 80 $/MWh electrical 208 $/t 215 $/t Heat 0 $/MWh thermal 210 $/t 212 $/t 22

23 Impact of Risk Elements on Gate Fee Gate Fee $/t 212 $/t Base case EPC Price Equity IRR Biomass quantity Compost ex-gate -5 5 Electricity -4 3 Heat -2 0 Best case Worst case The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 23

24 Impact of Risk Elements on Gate Fee Gate Fee $/t Innovation subsidies Hypothecated landfill levies 212 $/t Base case Project Management Guaranteed Maximum Price EPC Capability EPC Price Equity IRR Operational efficiency Asset management Guaranteed supply Merchant capability Biomass quantity Compost ex-gate Electricity De-bottlenecking makes money High returns should be sought in other industries Heat -2 0 Best case Worst case The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 24

25 Impact of Risk Elements on Gate Fee Gate Fee $/t Innovation subsidies Hypothecated landfill levies 212 $/t Base case Project Management Guaranteed Maximum Price EPC Capability EPC Price Equity IRR Operational efficiency Asset management Guaranteed supply Merchant capability Biomass quantity Compost ex-gate Electricity De-bottlenecking makes money High returns should be sought in other industries Heat Best case -2 0 Worst case Small as electricity mostly used to cover air control needs for invessel composting The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 25

26 Project Outcome 26

27 Outcome of Kimbriki Tender Main outcomes: No food waste separation and no in-vessel composting NSW Waste Strategy disregarded Council to shift food waste to existing green waste bin & residual waste to stabilisation (excluded from this study): No on-site mixed waste stabilisation; transferred to offsite mixed waste composting and landfilling at unknown price X X X X X Productivity: Council wasted approx. $10m & 10 years planning Industry wasted approx. $5m & 5 year tender preparation & 1 year tendering? The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 27

28 Summary 28

29 Summary of The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case Anaerobic Digestion with in-vessel composting is capital intensive Guaranteed Maximum Price is key for investors Landfill levy hypothecation would help separate food waste collection and processing affordability Excellency in operational efficiency, asset management, and waste supply capability De-bottlenecking and increased throughput generate cash and profit The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 29

30 Waste is our Energy. Engineering is our Business. Sustainable Solutions are our Mission. Check our References. The Anaerobic Digestion Business Case 30