Coral threat assessment progress and conservation initiatives

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1 Coral threat assessment progress and conservation initiatives David Obura, CORDIO East Africa &Chair: IUCN SSC Coral Specialist Group // ) Paul Pearce-Kelly, Zoological Society of London (ppk@zsl.org)

2 Coral Crisis Working Group, Royal Society 6 July 2009

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5 The importance of coral reefs and reporting their health These values are captured in global conventions signed by countries: Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Aichi Target 10 (6, 11, 12) Decision XII/23 Priority actions on Coral Reefs - US$ 375 billion The estimated value of the services coral reefs provide, including food, shoreline protection, and jobs in sectors such as tourism Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development 12 Sustainable production and consumption (fisheries) 13 Climate action (coral bleaching, ocean acidification)

6 Getting coral reef data into decisionmaking processes is essential to ensure reef survival, from local to global levels Status studies coral reef health Reef management and sustainability protected areas, fisheries, etc. Global assessments IPBES/WOA/IPCC/etc CBD Aichi Targets Coral reef and species indicators and assessments Key role of two sets of processes: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRM) IUCN Knowledge Products Red Lists of species and ecosystems SDGs

7 Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network 2018 onwards International Coral Reef Initiative Started in 1994, under UNESCO-IOC 11 th Secretariat (France) took over from Japan/Thailand in June 2016 (2 years). Members - 26 countries + 37 other entities, including UNEP, CBD, etc. Implementation and Governance Plan To be developed in 2018 Based on strengthening monitoring/data delivery networks (national/regional) Focus on Essential Ocean Variables (coral cover, algal cover, fish herbivore biomass) Readiness levels (GOOS Framework for Ocean Observations) Supported by: GCRMN regions and progress Reporting completed 1. Caribbean/SE Atlantic (2014) 2. Western Indian Ocean (2017) Reporting underway 3. Central/South Pacific ( Palau to Pitcairn, 2018) 4. East Asia (2019) To be started 5. Eastern Tropical Pacific 6. Red Sea/Gulfs 7. South Asia 8. Australia

8 Western Indian Ocean report Launched 7 December REGIONAL CHAPTERS 1.1 Introductory sections 1.2 Long term monitoring The 2016 coral bleaching event 1.4 Long term regional drivers and responses 1.5 References 2 NATIONAL CHAPTERS 1.2 Comoros 1.3 Kenya 1.4 Madagascar 1.5 Mauritius 1.6 Mozambique 1.7 Reunion (France) 2.7 Seychelles 3.8 South Africa 3.9 Tanzania

9 Key results By country Coral and algal cover - overall National averages (colours) Regional average (black) and 95% confidence interval around the mean (grey shading) Trend line (dashed grey line) 1998 mass bleaching and mortality

10 Key finding Does this mean lower resilience of corals and/or shift to algal-herbivory system? Corals to algae shift after 1998 bleaching What will happen after 2016 bleaching? Coral cover Algae cover? Increasing dominance by herbivores and detritivores, Increasing dominance by smaller-bodied fish?

11 Hard coral cover Declining coral cover, increasing macroalgal cover and declining fish -> increasing importance of herbivores Macroalgal cover

12 Red List Index for the world s mammals, birds, amphibians and corals. IUCN Red List of Coral Species first SRLI have been completed. Sampled Red List Index for Plants Plants Under Pressure Efforts to obtain a first value for a SRLI for plants are being lead by Royal Botanical Gardens Kew, National History Museum of London, and IUCN. For more information see: researchdata/directory/projects/sampledredlistindexp.htm. The first point for a SRLI for plants shows that one in five plants are threatened with extinction, with gymnosperms (including conifers and cycads) being the most threatened group. Around a third of plant species are so poorly known that we still do not know whether they are threatened or not. In terms of threat: tropical rainforests contain the highest number of threatened species, and 81% of threats to plants are human induced, with conversion to agriculture impacting 33% of threatened species. Comparing plants with other groups: plants are as threatened as mammals, they are more threatened than birds, but not as threatened as amphibians. Last update: 2012 Next update: 2013 Scale Levels at which the indicator is currently used: Global, Regional, Sub global, National, Sub national/local (in Szabo et al) The Indicator The Red List Index, key taxonomic groups Assessment of reef corals Done by the Global Marine Species Assessment Carpenter et al /3 of coral species threatened Red List Index indicator of changing status, used in global policy fora (CBD, etc), included a back-dated analysis to pre-1998 (1 st global bleaching event) showing corals as the taxon exhibiting the most severe decline among assessed taxa in recent decades.

13 IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Newly developed under IUCN s Commission on Ecosystem Management and programme Ecosystem risk assessment Classification mirrors the Red List of Species Trialed in the context of multiple ecosystems: Caribbean coral reefs (Keith et al. 2013) Meso-American Barrier reef (Bland et al. 2017)

14 Combining species and ecosystem assessments The criteria, applied to corals/coral reefs Species A. Declining population B. range size, fragmentation, decline or fluctuations C. Small population size and fragmentation, decline, or fluctuations D. Very small population or very restricted distribution E. Quantitative analysis of extinction risk (e.g., Population Viability Analysis) Ecosystem A1 current decline in distribution A2 future decline in distribution A3 historic decline in distribution B1-3 occurrence, area of occupancy, number of locations C1-3 environmental degradation D1-3 disruption of biotic processes E quantitative risk estimate 2008 mostly used Crit. A, some done using B To do: Criteria - D (with C?) Approach - coral cover as key indicator of declining populations, environmental degradation (Essential Ocean Variable), with supporting variables from e.g. algal cover, fish populations, etc (Supporting or sub-variables).

15 Coral reef species and ecosystem assessments, overview Proposed workflow Regional GCRMN regional report Red List - Ecosystems Red List - Species Global compilations Overview of whole process

16 Regional Global GCRMN Red List - Ecosystems Red List - Species GCRMN regional and national data Regional status of reefs Regional status of reefs Global GCRMN report Other sources EOV/EBV: Main - Coral cover Supporting: - Fleshy algae - Herbivorous fish Reef extent WCMC reef layer Reef threats Reefs at Risk; Halpern Climate/bleaching van Hooidink; 50 reefs; Donner (bleaching dbase), CCSG Criteria: C - environmental degradation; D - disrupted biological processes Species and distributions Corals of the World, Veron; World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS) Species traits coral traitbase, Madin et al. Criteria: A - declining population B - restricted range species Global Red List of Coral Reefs (ecosystems) Global Red List of Corals (species) Convention on Biological Diversity, COP 23 (Aichi Target 10) Sustainable Development Goals (Targets 14.1/2/5) GCRMN regional reports, database Regional Red Lists of Coral Reefs Regional Red Lists of Corals

17 What? Regional GCRMN regional report Red List Coral Reef Ecosystems Who? Why? Reef management and sustainability protected areas, fisheries, etc. SDGs Global assessments IPBES/WOA/IPCC/etc CBD Aichi Targets Red List Coral Species Global compilation Paris Agreement RCP 2.6 < 2 o C warming < 400 ppm CO 2

18 What is the 50 reefs initiative? An overview

19 What is 50 reefs? DEFINING THE PROBLEM AND THINKING ABOUT CRITERIA 50 Reefs will identify and protect coral reefs that are least vulnerable to climate change, and also have the greatest capacity to repopulate other reefs over time Conservation Action Conservation Science Science Communication Communic- Ation Chasing Coral 1

20 A 3-stage approach Stage 1 Current status 1) Final identification of planning units near complete, for launch in early 2018 (Economist World Ocean Summit?) 2) Conservation approach and options elaborated, through white papers 3) Engagement with donors for picking up the costs of stages 2 and 3; and with governments/partners for next steps Stage 2 Stage 3 Global - Identify 50 planning units o o o o o Global scale datasets with total spatial coverage Risk of coral mortality through climate change Connectivity and capacity for reseeding Mathematical decision-science process Data-driven approach Regional - Identify focal areas within each unit o Expert consultation o Regionally/locally available scientific data o Combined science & local knowledge o o NGO consultation o o Socio-economic considerations o o Local - Prioritise actions Engagement with local partners Data discovery: addresses gaps Establishing systematic monitoring A flexible, adaptive approach

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25 Arctic sea ice decline Arctic sea ice minimum volumes

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27 Regional level reviews: Amazon INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

28 Regional level reviews: Himalayas INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

29 Are we locking ourselves into a mass extinction event?

30 Are we locking ourselves into a mass extinction event?

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32 Key messages Reduce carbon emissions support the Paris accord Support and expand local reef management from MPAs to watersheds Convince policy and decision-makers Generate public and stakeholder support Build up scientific evidence for successful reef management

33 Coral Reef Solution-Scape: A Summary of Approaches to Coral Reef Conservation - WCS and 50Reefs Chasing Coral Voices from the Reef Coral Reef Life Declaration UN Ocean Conference n/files/en/ pdf Some tools

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