The UK Government s NEED data framework and how it influences policies. Chris Nicholls

Transcription

1 The UK Government s NEED data framework and how it influences policies Chris Nicholls

2 Contents What is NEED? Methodology and results Using NEED in government Impact on research 2

3 What is domestic NEED HEED Energy efficiency measures Framework for combining data from existing sources Energy Suppliers Consumption (Elec. and gas) AddressBase Unique property reference Experian Household characteristics VOA Property attributes Provides insights into how energy is used Impact of installing an energy efficiency measures on gas consumption 3

4 National Energy Efficiency Data-Framework (NEED) Energy company billing systems Energy suppliers Xoserve [For 4 aggregators - approx. 20m meters] What is NEED? Meter readings Meter readings Measures delivered through Gov t schemes Data inputs Gas IGTs [other 6 aggregators - app. 1m meters] Supplier permissions SoTA Data aggregators [31 organisations] Gemserv Electricity Walker Martin Meter Number (MPRN), address and consumption Consumption and meter number (MPAN) Meter Number (MPAN) and Address Consumption data (used for sub-nat) Measures delivered (excluding supply info) Matching via AddressBase UPRN Meter point consumption data Matching to other data Matching via AddressBase UPRN Energy Company Obligation (ECO) measures installed Energy Performance Certificates Data inputs Obligated energy suppliers Ofgem Assessment by accredited assessor EST web-survey (self completion) Housing Surveys Data from trade associations (e.g. FENSA, Gas Safe) Construction and measures installed in homes Measure installed, date of installation and address HEED energy efficiency measures installed (managed by EST) Energy efficiency measures installed Output Area Classification Census 2001 Experian consumer surveys Modelling Experian household demographics and mosaic Household level estimates for income and tenure Experian Residata Household characteristics National Statistics Postcode Directory ONS data GROS NISRA Royal Mail Ordnance Survey Freely available information e.g. information about properties sold. Voluntary questionnaires Property surveys Information from Local Authorities on planning consent. Valuation Office Agency Property Attributes Data Property attributes Linking via UARN/UPRN lookup NEED Analysis file at VOA (inc. prop attributes data)

5 Results domestic consumption 5

6 Results domestic consumption Consumption, 2012, by rural urban classification Rural properties typically consume the most gas and electricity Driven by property size Off gas properties in rural areas 6

7 Median gas consumption (kwh) Results domestic consumption Gas consumption, 2012, by floor area and index of multiple deprivation 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, or less 51 to to to 200 Over 200 Floor Area, m² Index of Multiple Deprivation Quintile For each floor area band, consumption higher for less deprived properties Deprived areas are more likely to be social housing - more energy efficient, could be under-heating 7

8 Impact of measures methodology Difference in differences approach Gas consumption Comparator group Intervention group A B C Intervention Preintervention Postintervention Time Each property in the intervention group is also matched to an equivalent property in the comparator group to allow comparisons of median, and distributions. 8

9 Percentage saving Results impact of measures Annual gas consumption savings by type of measure, % Cavity wall insulation Loft insulation Condensing boiler Solid wall insulation -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% -18% Median Mean 9

10 Results impact of measures Annual gas consumption savings by type of measure, 2012 Energy Efficiency Measure Percentage Savings Saving (KWh) CWI Median -8.4% -1,200 Mean -7.1% -1,300 Loft Insulation Median -2.6% -400 Condensing Boiler Solid Wall Insulation Mean -2.2% -400 Median -9.2% -1,300 Mean -8.0% -1,500 Median -17.2% -2,200 Mean -14.7% -2,100 10

11 NEED s influence on DECC s policies Green Deal and ECO: estimates of savings from insulation measures to inform in-use factors for carbon savings delivered Revisions to carbon savings delivered by previous schemes (eg. CERT, CESP) Fuel poverty: consumption by income and tenure to inform policy Inform development of other policies: heat; RHI, FITs, future policies etc. More accurate understanding of the impact of policies on Carbon Budgets 11

12 NEED-related research Consumption by property attributes: determine under-heating rebound effects Linking to other data: EPCs: link between EPC ratings and energy consumption Green Deal evaluation: energy efficiency behaviours and intentions Behaviours of high/low consumption households Serial installers Motivators 12

13 Thank you 13