Sustainable energy provision for South African Cities

Transcription

1 Sustainable energy provision for South African Cities September 2011 Mark Borchers

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3 Energy Growth into the Future Energy consumption for Business as Usual is expected to almost quadruple by 2050

4 Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Future Greenhouse gas emissions associated with the Business as Usual energy growth is untenable given the national and international pressures to reduce carbon emissions.

5 KEY ISSUE : PROCEEDING ALONG A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO HAS SIGNIFICANT RISKS Higher energy expenditure for city occupants Vulnerability to power price hikes Inefficient economy Fewer jobs taken advantage of in the energy sector A vulnerability to a carbon constrained future Energy Demand will quadruple by 2050 if energy demand growth continues

6 What do we do? Energy interventions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Business as usual 1 Electricity efficiency 2 Transport efficiency Optimum Energy Future 3 Renewable electricity supply Optimum Energy Future interventions do not compromise energy service delivery.

7 Total End User Expenditure for Scenarios (excl transport costs) Optimum Energy Future results in lower energy expenditure if transport infrastructure investments are excluded (a portion of which would come from national govt).

8 1 EFFICIENCY: ALMOST ALL ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS ARE FINANCIALLY SENSIBLE AND PAY THEMSELVES BACK, LEADING TO A MORE EFFICIENT ECONOMY R R R Cumulative net saving from electricity efficiency interventions up to 2025 Mid-hi inc residential Commercial The bars represent cumulative net savings (i.e. considering capital costs and electricity savings) of electricity efficiency interventions. R R R R Low-inc residential Govt R 0 LI lighting LI fridge HI lighting HI fridge HI water COM HVAC COM water COM lighting LG lighting LG HVAC LG street lights LG traffic signals

9 R millions ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMMES AND CITY REVENUE Efficiency seen to reduce revenue from electricity sales City revenue dependent on electricity sales How to protect City revenue? Annual financial surplus/shortfall per service Electricity Water Sanitation Rates & general Solid waste SOURCE: PALMER DEVELOPMENT GROUP

10 cents/kwh CCT Electricity Tariff Increase to Compensate for Revenue Loss due to EE Interventions Required Tariff Increase (cum) Required Tariff Increase (ann) 2.5 Cumulative tariff increase Annual tariff increase 0.5 0

11 3 Renewables: Electricity supply mix BUSINESS AS USUAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX (IRP2010) Existing Coal Wind Nuclear New Coal Dirty Clean

12 OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX Existing Coal Landfill gas Solar Thermal Wind New Coal Dirty Clean

13 OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX Landfill gas Existing Coal Solar Thermal New Coal Wind Dirty Clean

14 cents/kwh Generation Cost of Electricity Supply options 150 Solar PV 100 Nuclear PWR Solar CSP 50 Wind 29%CF Coal supercritical Coal fluidised bed 0 Source: ERC (UCT) SNAPP Tool PWR nuclear

15 Supply options for munics. Large scale PPAs (wind CSP ) Embedded options (PV, Wind ) Landfill gas Sewage methane Small hydro

16 Experience with landfill gas generation Big city can generate 5 to 10MW (maybe 80GWh/year), but Technically challenging (gas extraction and elec generation) Specialist team Driven by dedicated munic official Needs carbon financing to be viable: CDM process demanding Demanding contracts (CO2e guarantees) ethekwini system working well tho!

17 Rands per kwh (discounted) Embedded small scale solar PV generation costs Solar PV (grid-tied) cost comparison Solar PV cash Solar PV financed Normal elec Year

18 Rands per kwh (discounted) Embedded small scale wind generation costs 4.00 Small scale Wind (grid-tied) cost comparison Wind cash Wind financed Normal elec Year

19 Contribution of small PV & wind, and landfill gas kw/ system CF No. systems Peak MW Annual GWh % of CT GWh Wind 5 20% % PV 5 25% % Landfill gas % Initial rollout of wind and PV will have limited impact on grid balancing and peak load Small embedded generation standards NRS too demanding?

20 Optimising use of system assets EE-DSM Options Efficiency -households -commercial -industrial -government Demand smoothing -Interruptible (geyser, HVAC etc) -ToU Consumers Keep the lights on Generation Options Existing Coal New Coal Nuclear Gas fired Wind CSP Small solar PV Lower costs Lower carbon Resilient economy Small wind Landfill gas

21 Priorities: Way forward? Energy Efficiency rollout is critical Local renewable generation options: Solar PV will take off facilitate Landfill gas (pending carbon finance) Maximise interruptible & other DSM measures Consider: PPAs for large scale Renewables Elec Depts need strategic planning capacity

22 THANK YOU