Aquatic Salinization in a Changing Climate Impacts on Fish Habitats, Mangrove Species and Poor Communities in Coastal Bangladesh

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1 Aquatic Salinization in a Changing Climate Impacts on Fish Habitats, Mangrove Species and Poor Communities in Coastal Bangladesh Susmita Dasgupta DECEE World Bank 2016

2 Poverty Map of Bangladesh million people in Bangladesh live in poverty million extremely poor do not meet the basic needs of food expenditure.

3 Overview Coastal Bangladesh Coastal Bangladesh in a Changing Climate Increasing River Salinity Loss of Fish Habitat Adverse Impact on Livelihood and Nutrition Change in UNESCO Heritage Mangrove Forest Sundarbans Implications for Forest-based Livelihood Implications for Poverty Message to Policy Makers

4 Bangladesh: Coastal Region 19 districts (and 148 sub-districts). Accounts for 32% of the land area of Bangladesh and 26% population in Bangladesh (sustains livelihood of more than 37 million). High incidence of poverty: 11.8 million poor in Cyclones struck 154 times during 1877 and 1995, and 5 severe cyclones struck between 1995 and On average, severe cyclones strike Bangladesh every three yearsproducing storm surges that can reach heights of 10 m. High river and soil salinity in the southwest coastal region are apparent.

5 River Water Salinity in the Coastal Region Average salinity is higher in the dry season than in the monsoon. Steady increase in salinity from October to late May. In early June, salinity drops sharply with the onset of monsoon rain. At present, the rivers of the southwest coastal zone are highly saline. Scarcity of drinking water and water for irrigation in the southwest coastal region are apparent and serious.

6 River Salinity in the Southwest Region Spatial variation of maximum river salinity during Source: IWM, 2013

7 River Salinity Modeling: Conceptual Framework River water salinity in coastal Bangladesh depends on: Volume of freshwater discharges from the upstream river systems Surface water runoff from rainfall Salinity of the Bay of Bengal near the coast, and Tidal dynamics of the coastal river system

8 River Salinity Modeling u/s: upstream boundary d/s: downstream boundary of a river Source: IWM, 2013

9 Area Estimates Salinity classification* 1 ds = 1.75 ppt Baseline (March 2012) Best (March 2050) Worst (March 2050) Slight saline (<1 ds/m) Slight to moderately saline (1-5 ds/m) Moderate to high saline (5-10 ds/m) Highly saline (>10 ds/m) 22 % 16 % 13 % 35 % 30 % 21 % 8 % 17 % 27 % 35 % 38 % 40 % *WARPO-Bangladesh: National Water Management Plan

10 Expected Impacts River area: freshwater (0-1 ppt) 40.8% River area: water for dry season agriculture (< 2ppt) 50.6% 39.5% 19.7% 17.1% 20.9% Baseline: March 2012 Best March 2050 Worst March 2050 Baseline: March 2012 Best March 2050 Worst March 2050 Expected increase in river salinity is likely to impact wild habitats of fresh water fish. In Sunderbans (UNESCO Heritage site), a shift in mangrove species is expected.

11 Exposure of Poor to Increased River Salinity Change from the current situation to the best future (2050) Change from the current situation to the worst future (2050) Total population Poor Extremely poor +15 % +17 % +23 % +100 % +111 % +130 %

12 Important Source of Dietary Protein Wild, small freshwater fish are the most common fish consumed in rural Bangladesh Image: Pritthijit Kundu

13 Implications for Fish Habitats Analysis is based on 83 fish species consumed in the region. Adverse impacts on reproductive cycles, reproductive capacities, extent of spawning areas and feeding/breeding/longitudinal migrations of fresh water fish species are expected. GIS overlays of maps of river salinity and fish habitats by salinity tolerance of fish species are conducted to predict impacts of salinization on prevalence of fish species from 2012 to 27 climate scenarios in Analysis is conducted for 101,600 pixels (one pixel has an area of sq. km, which is equivalent to a square cell with side length of m). Exposure of the poor to changes in fish habitats (loss, gain and no change) is calculated from GIS overlays of the count of poor from the poverty map at sub-district level and mean percent changes in fish species for the sub-districts.

14 Findings: Implications for Fish Habitats Areas with poor population that lose species are 6 times more prevalent than areas gaining species 6,000,000 Poverty Population 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Extremely poor Loss Gain None Poor Fish species change Livelihood of fishermen in the region will be adversely affected. Significant impact on animal protein intake of poor women and children is expected.

15 Overall Impacts: Change in Mangroves Significant impact on mangrove species in Sunderbans (UNESCO Heritage site) is anticipated, A shift in species is expected from Heritiera fomes to Ceriops decandra and Excoecaria agallocha. A negative impact on standing stock of timber in the region is inevitable. Overall honey production is likely to increase. Human and wildlife conflicts in Sundarbans will increase. Analysis is based on 14 mangrove species and mixed species.

16 Impacts for Adjacent Poor Sub-Districts Sub-districts in the region: Dacope, Koyra, Mongla, Sarankhola and Shyamnagar are in 71.5 to 92.3 national percentiles for extreme poverty and 77.0 to 91.0 for poverty. 437,200 people in these districts are poor and that includes 266,500 extreme poor. Shyamnagar and Koyra are the poorest and most populous. Significant decline in Heritiera fomes (58%) in Koyra in expected by Shyamnagar will experience large declines in Avicinea alba, marina, officinalis (71%), Exoecaria agallocha (67%) and Sonneratia apetala (68%). Salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strong regressive impact on the value of standing timber stocks in the region..

17 Health Implications of Increased Water Salinity Controlling for many other determinants of infant mortality, the econometric analysis found high significance for salinity exposure of mothers during the last month of pregnancy. The estimated impact of salinity on infant mortality is comparable in magnitude to the estimated effects of traditionally-cited variables such as maternal age and education, gender of the household head, household wealth, toilet facilities, drinking water sources and cooking fuels.

18 Livelihood Threats and Household Responses Coastal families face recurring inundations from cyclonic storms. Degradation of natural resources from progressive salinization salinity is apparent. Agricultural productivity loss, loss of fresh water fish species are affecting the livelihood of coastal families adversely. Economic necessity drives more working-age adults to seek outside earnings in households threatened by inundation and salinization, particularly those that are relatively isolated from market centers. Those left behind face a far greater likelihood of extreme poverty than their counterparts in less-threatened areas.

19 Livelihood Threat and Household Composition Households subject to high inundation and salinization threats have out-migration rates for working-age adults (particularly males), dependency ratios, and poverty incidence that are significantly higher than their counterparts in non-threatened areas. The critical zone for inundation risk lies within 4 km of the coast, where about 8% of the population of Bangladesh currently resides, with lesser impacts observed for coastalzone households at higher elevations.

20 Summary This research quantified the impact of aquatic salinization on southwest coastal Bangladesh with and without climate change. Significant salinity during October - May is already apparent. Progressive salinization of river water in a changing climate is imminent. Significant scarcity of drinking water and water for irrigation is expected. Expected increase in river salinity is likely to impact wild habitats of fresh water fish, low-value indigenous species and nutritional intake of the poor, especially women and children. Expected change in mangrove species in Sundarbans will affect assets of Bangladesh and forest based livelihood in adjacent poor sub-districts. Households threatened by inundation and salinization, particularly those that are relatively isolated from market centers respond by hollowing out, as economic necessity drives more working-age adults to seek outside earnings. Those left behind face a far greater likelihood of extreme poverty than their counterparts in less-threatened areas.

21 Urgent Call for Action With a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized today, families in coastal Bangladesh are already on the front line of climate change. Their adaptation foretells future decisions by hundreds of millions of families worldwide who will face similar threats well before For sustainable poverty alleviation, it is imperative for policymakers to begin planning to cope with the potential poverty trap that climate change may create. Implementation of new policies takes time. Therefore, the time is now for the policymakers and development partners to prepare and implement policies that reduce vulnerability to climate change.

22 Co-Researchers Mainul Huq, Development Policy Group, Bangladesh Zahirul Huque Khan, Institute of Water Modeling, Bangladesh Md. Golam Mustafa. World Fish, Bangladesh Ainun Nishat, BRAC University, Bangladesh Farhana Akhter Kamal, Institute of Water Modeling, Bangladesh Sharifuzzaman Choudhury, Institute of Water Modeling, Bangladesh David Wheeler, World Resources Institute Md. Istiak Sobhan, World Bank Brian Blankespoor, World Bank

23 Acknowledgement Bank-Netherlands Partnership Program South Asia Water Initiative - Sundarbans Landscape

24 References River Salinity Aquatic Salinization and Fish Habitats Drinking Water Salinity and Infant Mortality Sundarbans in a Changing Climate Livelihood Threat

25 Discussion Images downloaded from Google

26 Q & A Images downloaded from Google