16TH ANNUAL ENERGY FORECASTING MEETING / EFG AUSTIN, TX APRIL 25-27, SAE UPDATES. Oleg Moskatov and Mike Russo April 27, 2018

Transcription

1 16TH ANNUAL ENERGY FORECASTING MEETING / EFG AUSTIN, TX APRIL 25-27, SAE UPDATES Oleg Moskatov and Mike Russo April 27, 2018

2 2018 RESIDENTIAL UPDATE Oleg Moskatov

3 PRIMARY CHANGES FROM 2017» Reference Case no longer accounts for the Clean Power Plan (CPP)» Revised lighting assumptions» Revised miscellaneous assumptions» Adjustments to other end-uses

4 HEATING (KWH/HH)» Slightly lower heat pump efficiency as a result of correction to 2017 forecast» Despite downward adjustments to heat pump efficiency, heating usage remains largely unchanged

5 COOLING (KWH/HH)» Adjusted heat pump efficiency results in slightly higher near-term cooling intensity and lower long-term cooling intensity growth

6 BASE USE (KWH/HH)» Despite changes in magnitude and considerable differences on end-use level, there is little difference in base use growth through the forecast period

7 ELECTRIC WATER HEATING AND DRYING (KWH/HH)» Lower saturation projection drives electric water heating intensity down» Accounting for ongoing and projected utility energy efficiency programs results in significantly lower electric clothes dryer intensity

8 LIGHTING (KWH/HH)» Residential lighting is adjusted to better reflect historical shipment data of incandescent, CFL, and LED light bulbs, as well as utility rebate incentives We get to the same place in the end, but follow a slightly different path

9 MISCELLANEOUS (KWH/HH)» Between 2019 and 2025 miscellaneous intensity declines before flattening out» Primary reason for the decline is the impact of new standards for pool pumps and ceiling fans

10 MISCELLANEOUS - ISSUES» In the context of SAE modeling, we define miscellaneous as a bundle of end-uses This includes everything from electric can openers to pool pumps virtually everything that plugs into the home not defined as a major end-use» This makes the miscellaneous end-use challenging to define, measure, and forecast

11 MISCELLANEOUS - ISSUES» Miscellaneous usage varies significantly in magnitude and growth rates across census divisions» The miscellaneous curves as a share of base loads looks more reasonable

12 MISCELLANEOUS IN SAE MODELS» When base loads are rolled into XOther variable, the end result also looks reasonable in most cases

13 MISCELLANEOUS - ISSUES» More problematic in the context of SAE modeling is the path the miscellaneous usage takes through the forecast period» We smooth the raw intensity projections in the near-term, mitigating the most significant fluctuations

14 MISCELLANEOUS ALTERNATIVE APPROACH» One alternative approach is to think of miscellaneous as package of technologies that diffuse through the market like all other technologies in the past

15 BASS DIFFUSION MODEL» First published in 1963 by Frank M. Bass who was a professor in the business department at Purdue University» The first to describe mathematically the idea as to how new products penetrate the market the portion of the potential market that adopts at time t given they have not yet adopted is equal to a linear function of previous adopters. f t 1 F t = p + q M A t f(t) = the portion of M that adopts at time t F(t) = the portion of M that has adopted by time t p q = coefficient of innovation (since it does not depend on past adopters) = coefficient of imitation (the number of adoptions at anytime depend on how many have already adopted the product) A(t) = the cumulative number of adoptions in at time t M = market potential

16 MISCELLANEOUS ALTERNATIVE APPROACH» Bass Diffusion Model can be used to develop an alternative miscellaneous intensity path.» Coefficient of innovation (p), coefficient of imitation (q), and ceiling (M) are calibrated to the starting point, 2009 base-year, and ending point Diffusion models have been estimated for each Census Division and will be made available as part of this year s SAE release

17 MISCELLANEOUS DIFFUSION MODEL COMPARISON kwh per household» The model-based miscellaneous sales trend results in slower average use decline through the forecast period

18 COMPARISON OF AEO17 AND AEO18 INTENSITIES kwh per household» Despite differences at the end-use level, 2018 total intensity is not significantly different than 2017

19 RESIDENTIAL GAS HEATING therms per Household» No significant change in gas heating intensity

20 RESIDENTIAL GAS WATER HEATING therms per household» Flat 2018 gas water heating intensity forecast as a result of slightly stronger saturation projections. Stronger heating saturation is driven by lower natural gas prices

21 RESIDENTIAL GAS therms per household» 2018 total gas intensity declines at a slightly slower rate

22 QUESTIONS?

23 2018 COMMERCIAL UPDATE Mike Russo

24 ENERGY INTENSITY BY BUILDING TYPE» 2013 base year total intensity

25 MIX OF END-USE INTENSITY

26 PRIMARY CHANGES FROM 2017» Reference Case no longer accounts for the Clean Power Plan (CPP)» Revised lighting assumptions» Revised miscellaneous assumptions» Revised ventilation assumptions

27 SOLAR AND EFFICIENCY PROGRAM SAVINGS» EIA develops a solar energy forecast that is primarily allocated back to cooling and miscellaneous use In developing the SAE spreadsheets, we add own-use solar back to these enduses as most utilities make their own solar adjustments» EIA also now accounts for utility efficiency program activity by incentivizing (lowering the cost) of the more efficient technology options for some enduses At this point we do not have a way of backing out these impacts We effectively need EIA to execute the models without the rebates

28 SOLAR GENERATION» Solar own-use energy forecast is converted into solar use per sqft and added back to Cooling and Miscellaneous intensities.

29 IMPACT OF SOLAR» Adding solar own-use to cooling intensity reduces the decline by 0.3% through the forecast period» Adding solar own-use to miscellaneous intensity reduces the growth by 0.2% through the forecast period

30 COOLING Average Growth Rate Year % -1.0% % -1.0% % -1.0% % -0.5%» Little to no change in cooling intensity

31 HEATING Average Growth Rate Year % -4.0% % -3.9% % -1.2% % -1.4%» Revision to heating efficiency results in a stronger near-term decline, though the overall impact would be minimum as commercial heat is a relatively small share of total building use

32 BASE INTENSITY Average Growth Rate Year % -0.9% % -0.8% % -0.8% % -0.7%» Largely as a result of the revisions to lighting, miscellaneous, and ventilation, base-use intensity decline is significantly stronger than last year.

33 LIGHTING INTENSITY Average Growth Rate Year % -4.2% % -3.2% % -1.9% % -2.7%» Adopted EIA s commercial lighting intensity forecast. Hinges on strong commercial LED lighting penetration.

34 LIGHTING EFFICIENCY» Much stronger stock lighting efficiency as a result of updates to EIA s technology menu cost and performance characteristics.

35 LIGHTING STOCK» LED as a share of commercial lighting increases from 10% in 2017 to 85% in 2050.» LED penetration is driven by falling costs; purchase price of a typical LED light bulb decreases by about 70% between 2015 and Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018

36 MISCELLANEOUS» Office equipment assumptions updated using revised contractor report» Other consumption is now indexed to domestic nonindustrial and service gross output

37 MISCELLANEOUS INTENSITY Average Growth Rate Year % 1.6% % 1.1% % 0.5% % 0.2%» As a result of technology updates, aggregate miscellaneous intensity is higher in the near term, but shows much slower growth in the out years

38 VENTILATION EFFICIENCY» Efficiency projections were revised to reflect updated technology menu is now consistent with building codes ASHRAE (2016) and ASHRAE (2024).

39 VENTILATION INTENSITY Average Growth Rate Year % -1.7% % -1.6% % -2.5% % -2.6%» As a result of significant efficiency improvements, ventilation intensity declines a % per year

40 TOTAL INTENSITY Average Growth Rate Year % -1.0% % -0.9% % -0.8% % -0.7%» In the near term total intensity declines at a slightly faster rate, the more significant difference comes after 2023 largely due to updated lighting and ventilation intensity projections.

41 QUESTIONS?

42 CONTACT US