Thunder Bay Sub-Region Local Advisory Committee Introductory Meeting. November 26, 2015

Transcription

1 Thunder Bay Sub-Region Local Advisory Committee Introductory Meeting November 26, 2015

2 Presentation Outline Role of the Local Advisory Committee Regional Electricity Planning Process Electricity Planning in the Thunder Bay Area Electricity Needs and Options Discussion 2

3 ROLE OF THE LOCAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE 3

4 Role of the Local Advisory Committee Provide input and recommendations on the development of the regional plan for the Thunder Bay area Provide input in the design of engagement approaches related to regional planning in the Thunder Bay area Share information on local priorities to be considered in the development and implementation of the regional plan

5 Meetings are a Forum for Information Sharing Updates on progress and results from the Thunder Bay Working Group Working Group to provide information on identified options of solutions for meeting the region s electricity needs; cost and benefits A venue for a broader energy dialogue and a bridge between regional planning cycles

6 REGIONAL ELECTRICITY PLANNING PROCESS 6

7 Key Participants in Ontario s Electricity Sector Regulation Ontario Energy Board Generation Ministry of Energy Ontario Electricity System and its Customers System Operation, Planning and Procurement Distribution Transmission Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and other generators Hydro One, Great Lakes Power Transmission, Five Nations and others Local Distribution Companies (LDCs), Hydro One Distribution and other distribution customers 7

8 Components of a Typical Electric Power System Transmission System Centralized Generation Distribution System Distributed Generation 8

9 What is Regional Electricity Planning? A process for identifying and addressing local electricity needs Link between provincial bulk system planning (led by the IESO) and local distribution system planning (led by LDCs) Objective of maintaining a safe and reliable electricity system Operates in the context of existing criteria and frameworks Applies the IESO s reliability standards Aligns with provincial/municipal planning policies, and where possible, with local interests Either an integrated approach (considers conservation, generation, wires and other innovative solutions) led by the IESO, for studies with more expansive needs; or for studies with wires only solutions, led by Hydro One or other Transmitters. 9

10 Context for Regional Electricity Planning

11 Planning in Northwest Ontario Provincial electricity planning agencies (the former OPA and the IESO) have been planning to address needs in Northwest Ontario since the mid 2000s A plan for the Thunder Bay area was included in the first IPSP, filed in 2007 The former OPA continued to periodically review supply and demand in the area over the last decade and make recommendations Pickle Lake Little Jackfish connection Remote Community Connection Plan East West Tie reinforcement Northwest Bulk Transmission line With the adoption of Ontario s newly formalized regional planning process, the IESO is leading development of regional plans in all areas of the Northwest 11

12 Bulk Transmission Planning Initiatives: East-West Tie and Northwest Transmission Bulk Line East-West Tie: - 230kV double circuit line from Thunder Bay to Wawa - Planned in-service date: IESO to provide a needs update report to Ontario Energy Board in mid-december Northwest Transmission Bulk Line: - Identified as a priority in the 2013 Long-Term Energy Plan - Planned In-service date: Oct 2014: IESO provided Hydro One with the need, scope and timing for the project and requested initiation of development work - IESO continuing to work with Hydro One 12

13 Integrated Regional Resource Planning in the Northwest October 2014 Engagement meetings in Thunder Bay to kick-off planning process for three sub-regions in Northwest: Thunder Bay West of Thunder Bay Greenstone-Marathon January 28, 2015 Scoping Process Outcome Report ( Scoping Report ) and Terms of Reference for IRRPs completed In addition, a North of Dryden IRRP is complete, and a draft Remote Community Connection Plan is being engaged upon 13

14 Engagement Outcomes Regional Planning Process Thunder Bay IRRP: Status and Next Steps Fall 2015 Spring 2016 STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 Understand electricity demand growth Identify electricity needs Examine ways to address electricity needs Implement recommended actions Electricity Demand Forecast Electricity Needs & Timing Options Near-Term Investments & Longer-Term Roadmap 2015 Summer Regional Engagement FOLLOW UP: Incorporate input into the demand forecast and needs assessment First Nations Communities, Métis and municipalities will be engaged at various points in the process 14

15 ELECTRICITY PLANNING IN THE THUNDER BAY AREA 15

16 Regional Planning in the Thunder Bay Area A Working Group consisting of the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), Thunder Bay Hydro, and Hydro One Networks was formed in early 2015 to examine the electricity needs of the Thunder Bay area. To date, the Working Group has developed a demand forecast, engaged with local municipalities and First Nation communities to receive feedback on the forecast assumptions, and identified the area s electricity needs 16

17 Thunder Bay IRRP Study Area The Thunder Bay IRRP area includes: 10 municipalities Fort William First Nation and Red Rock Indian Band Distribution customers in the City of Thunder Bay are supplied by Thunder Bay Hydro, and by Hydro One Distribution in the surrounding areas Several industrial customers receive supply directly from the transmission system 17

18 Thunder Bay Electricity System The Thunder Bay area electricity system consists of a 115 kv network with several transformer stations that supply distribution customers The area is supplied by the Lakehead TS autotransformers and local generation: Nipigon river plants Bowater CTS Thunder Bay GS (biomass) Nipigon NUG Kakabeka Falls GS Silver Falls GS 18

19 Historic Peak Demand (MW) Current Supply and Demand in the Thunder Bay Area Electricity demand has declined from historic levels, stabilizing at around 350 MW in the last 5 years Dependable peak capacity of local generation is currently around: 200 MW hydro 100 MW thermal generation The balance of the area s supply is delivered from the transmission system

20 Drivers of Electricity Demand Growth Growth in communities, including spinoff economic activity from resource development across the Northwest Potential local mining development Recovery of forestry industry Gas-to-oil pipeline conversion project Significant uncertainties in the degree and timing of these developments 20

21 Net Peak Demand (MW) Thunder Bay Area Demand Forecast Historic High Reference Forecast scenarios were developed to reflect uncertainties Conservation is included in the forecast, based on LDC conservation plans and long-term provincial targets 21

22 ELECTRICITY NEEDS AND OPTIONS 22

23 Planning under Uncertainty There are substantial uncertainties inherent to the demand forecast in this region Whether and when individual projects proceed depends on numerous factors that are difficult to predict (e.g., future resource prices, economic trends, social acceptance of projects) Projected demand developments are large and would have a significant impact on the electricity system Important to balance risk of stranded investments (if loads don t materialize) against risk of not being ready (if they do) A margin-based approach is being adopted for the Thunder Bay regional plan Assess the current system capability and its margin to supply additional growth Compare to potential future developments Develop a plan to increase this margin as needed and identify conditions that would trigger implementation 23

24 Current Load Meeting Capability of the Thunder Bay Area The Load Meeting Capability (LMC) of the Thunder Bay area is defined by the capability of the area s major supply sources: The Lakehead auto-transformers Local generation The Thunder Bay area has sufficient capacity today There is currently about 100 MW of margin to supply additional growth in peak demand Future demand growth and changes to the local supply mix may use up this margin 24

25 Possible Developments Affecting Future LMC Margin Regional Load Meeting Capability (LMC) Pipeline Conversion & Additional Greenstone Mining Growth Changes in local supply 100 MW Greenstone Area Mining Growth Thunder Bay Area Mining Growth Thunder Bay Area LDC Growth Today's Load

26 Planning to Ensure Adequate LMC in the Thunder Bay Area Significant uncertainties in the timing and size of forecast demand growth Nonetheless, it is prudent to initiate development of a solution today to be ready for changes on the system Various alternatives will be considered, including: Transmission Local Generation Demand Response Alternatives will be evaluated based upon established decision criteria, including: Cost-effectiveness (Net Present Value of alternatives) Feasibility Reliability performance 26

27 Other Identified Needs The following localized needs have been identified within the City of Thunder Bay: 1. Ensure transformer station capacity is adequate Depending on growth, additional capacity may be required in the medium to long term 2. Ensure local 115 kv network meets reliability standards Review system under new North American reliability standards 27

28 Bulk System Needs Two bulk system needs have been identified in the Northwest that have an impact on the Thunder Bay area. These needs are being addressed through IESO s bulk planning process. 1. Bulk supply to support growth in the Northwest Provide supply capability to the Northwest, including to the Thunder Bay area, as overall Northwest demand grows East-West Tie expansion is being developed to meet this need Target in-service date: Voltage control on the 230 kv system under outage conditions Following a major outage involving both Lakehead auto-transformers (N-1-1), high voltages on the bulk 230 kv system cannot be managed with existing infrastructure IESO is conducting a feasibility study of reactive requirements to address this issue 28

29 Next Steps Integrate feedback from the LAC and develop options for discussion at the next LAC meeting (early 2016) Finalize Thunder Bay plan (Q2 2016) Thunder Bay area plan to be integrated with North of Dryden, West of Thunder Bay, and Greenstone-Marathon plans in a consolidated regional plan for the Northwest (Q3 2016) 29

30 Questions for Discussion Do you agree that a margin-based planning approach is appropriate for the Thunder Bay area? Are there additional local priorities or decision criteria that should be considered in the development of the plan? How can the broader community be engaged in this discussion? 30