NSTA Web Seminar: The Heat is On! Climate Change and Coral Reef Ecosystems

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1 LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminar: The Heat is On! Climate Change and Coral Reef Ecosystems Ocean Acidification Presented by Dr. Dwight Gledhill, NOAA Thursday, April 2, 2009

2 Ocean Acidification What it is and what it means NSTA Elluminate Web Seminar 2009 Presented by: Dr. Dwight Gledhill Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Assisted on the chat by: Dr. Mark Eakin (Coral Reef Watch) Tyler Christensen (Coral Reef Watch) Paulo Maurin (Coral Reef Conservation Prog.) Bruce Moravchik (NOAA) 2

3 PART I Making the case for a Balanced Budget Amendment 3

4 The Growing Challenge of Population & Energy _growth.jpg er_population2.jpg 4

5 Global Weirding Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL) 5

6 470 Global Weirding 420 Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL) 6

7 Keeping a Balanced Budget UNESCO (2006) Updated from Sabine et al (2004), SCOPE 62 Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL) 1 Gt = 1,000,000,000 tons 7

8 Keeping a Balanced Budget UNESCO (2006) Updated from Sabine et al (2004), SCOPE 62 Slide provided by John Dunne (GFDL) 1 Gt = 1,000,000,000 tons 8

9 Let s Pause for Two Questions. 9

10 PART II Ocean Acidification That Other CO 2 Problem 10

11 The Basic Chemistry 48% of anthropogenic CO 2 taken up by the ocean CO 2

12 The Basic Chemistry 48% of anthropogenic CO 2 taken up by the ocean CO 2

13 The Basic Chemistry 48% of anthropogenic CO 2 taken up by the ocean CO 2

14 Poll Question Based on the previous equation, if the CO 2 concentration increases what will happen to the ph? A) ph goes up (become more basic) B) ph goes down (becomes more acidic) C) ph stays the same due to buffering action

15 The Basic Chemistry ph CO 3 2- CO 2(aq) Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

16 The Basic Chemistry ph CO 3 2- CO 2(aq) Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

17 NOAA CMDL CCGG CO 2 data at Mauna Loa, HI Derived surface (50 m) values obtained using on-line data available at and solved using the Lewis E. and Wallace D.W.R. (1998) Basic program for CO 2 system in seawater. ORNL/CDIAC-105, Oak Ridge National Lab 17

18 Plant/Animal/Mineral Reef Community Slide after of Joan Kleypas, NCAR 18

19 Poll Question What is currently considered the primary threat posed to coral reefs by "Ocean Acidification"? A) corals will dissolve B) reef growth will be compromised C) corals will expel their zooxanthellae D) there will be fewer fish E) coral will grow too quickly

20 A) corals will dissolve B) reef growth will be compromised C) corals will expel their zooxanthellae D) there will be fewer fish E) coral will grow too quickly

21 Let s Pause for Two Questions. 21

22 PART III My Favorite Greek Letter What it means and where it s going 22

23 Saturation State (Ω) Saturation state describes the degree to which a solution is saturated with respect to a mineral phase Ca 2+ + CO 3 2 CaCO 3 Ω phase = [ Ca ][ CO ] 2+ 2 K sp, phase 3 W>1= precipitation Ω<1= dissolution 23

24 Important Benthic Calcifiers NOAA SW Ross Impacts of Increasing Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers: A Guide for Future Research,

25 Coccolithophores Important Planktonic Calcifiers Forams Images courtesy of Joan Kleypas, NCAR 25

26 26 Carbonate Shells Provide Many Functions 1. Protection 2. Buoyancy 3. Light modification 4. Reproduction 5. Anchoring to the substrate 6. Extension above the bottom 7. Competition for space P. Harrison D. Lea T Hughes Slide courtesy of Joan Kleypas, NCAR

27 Predictions of Ocean Acidification in the Global Oceans Aragonite Saturation State after Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

28 Predictions of Ocean Acidification in the Global Oceans Aragonite Saturation State after Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

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30 PART IV 30

31 Biosphere 2 Measured responses of marine calcifying organisms to increased pco2 SHARQ Aquaria/ Mesocosm s 31

32 Ocean Acidification: Impacts on Corals and Reefs

33 Coral Reef Growth in the Balance Bioerosion Dissolution Calcification

34 Coral Reef Growth in the Balance Calcification Bioerosion Dissolution

35 Let s Pause for Two Questions. 35

36 PART V 36

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39 ph Fraction Bleached 380 ppm ppm ppm

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41 The Eastern Tropical Pacific goes Global? Should atmospheric CO 2 levels achieve 550 ppm most tropical coral reefs will reside in waters akin to the Tropical East Pacific 41

42 Let s Pause for Two Questions. 42

43 PART VI Trouble comes in. 43

44 Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems 44 Freiwald, A 2004; environment/destructive/problem_en.htm Mapped distribution of known deep(cold) water coral 44

45 Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems 45 Living on the Edge of the Aragonite Saturation Horizon Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH) 45

46 Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems 46 Guinotte et al., % of deep-sea coral above ASH 1765 Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH) surface 46

47 Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems 47 Guinotte et al., Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH) surface 47

48 Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems 48 Guinotte et al., Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH) surface 48

49 Deep-Water Coral Reef Ecosystems 49 Guinotte et al., % of deep sea coral above ASH 2099 Aragonite Saturation Horizon (ASH) surface 49

50 Let s Pause for Two Questions. 50

51 PART VII What we don t know 51

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53 The Big Questions Remain? Effects on Ocean Food Webs? Effect on Coral Reef Ecosystems? Species Adaptation? Climate Feedbacks? Increased Ocean Stratification? Terrestrial Input? Physiological Mechanisms? Carbonate chemistry on reefs? 53

54 Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. LaParguera/La_Parguera_main.htm. NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009) NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006) USGS SHARQ Mesocosm (March, 2009) Columbia Univ. boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009) 54

55 Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. Parguera/La_Parguera_main.htm. NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009) NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006) USGS SHARQ Mesocosm (March, 2009) Columbia Univ. boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009) 55

56 Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. Parguera/La_Parguera_main.htm. NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009) CO 2 NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006) USGS SHARQ Mesocosm (March, 2009) Columbia Univ. boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009) 56

57 Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. Parguera/La_Parguera_main.htm. NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009) CO 2 NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006) USGS SHARQ Mesocosm (March, 2009) Columbia Univ. boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009) 57

58 Atlantic Ocean Acidification Test-bed: A nexus of monitoring a research OA activities in the Greater Caribbean uniting autonomous and discrete sampling platforms in concert with process and modeling studies. Parguera/La_Parguera_main.htm. NOAA PMEL MAPCO2 (Jan, 2009) NOAA AOML ICON (Jan, 2006) Ω arg /16/09 1/26/09 2/5/09 USGS SHARQ Mesocosm (March, 2009) Columbia Univ. boundary layer flux machine (Feb, 2009) 58

59 PART VIII Some Final Thoughts 59

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61 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

62 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

63 Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions Factor (relative to 1990) World F Emissions (emissions) P Population (population) g = G/P 0.6 h = F/G Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

64 Concluding Remarks Ocean Acidification is a direct chemical response to rising atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 There is mounting evidence that such changes in surface ocean chemistry may challenge marine ecosystems this century. Coral reefs may prove particularly vulnerable through reduced accretion (growth) rages Balance your budget Reduce, reuse, recycle, Act on the best available intel

65 Special Thanks to for sponsoring this Web Seminar!

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68 National Science Teachers Association Dr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-learning NSTA Web Seminars Paul Tingler, Director Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator