Soil and Water Lab Biological and Environmental Engineering Cornell University Ithaca, NY

Transcription

1 Watershed Modeling Cayuga Lake Modeling Project Meeting nyalt.org Soil and Water Lab Biological and Environmental Engineering Cornell University Ithaca, NY

2 Why? In order to model the lake, we need to estimate how much phosphorus is flowing into it the watershed model will provide this information to the lake model Models are a convenient tool for testing the likely consequences of different scenarios, e.g., changes in land management

3 health.usgs.gov Phosphorus Sources

4 Phosphorus Sources savethesheyenne.org

5 Phosphorus Sources fertilizershop.net

6 Phosphorus Transport

7 Phosphorus Transport

8 Transparent One Modeling Challenge Rain Phosphorus Etc. Streamflow Phosphorus Etc. Opaque Simple Complex

9 One Modeling Challenge Transparent Rain Phosphorus Etc. Opaque Streamflow Phosphorus Etc. Simple Complex

10 One Modeling Challenge Transparent We will use both modeling approaches together to take advantages of the each approaches benefits Opaque Simple Complex

11 Modeling Strategy: Big Picture Courtesy of Doulas Haith Land use + soils + weather Phosphorus Export

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17 Total Phosphorous Loading kgs Biological and Environmental Engineering Preliminary Output (TDP) Total Phosphorous per Year Years

18 Monitoring/Data Strategy Inside Watershed New Sites Watershed Outlet Other Sites

19 UFI Tributary Monitoring Routine Monitoring Program began in March and has continued biweekly (3/18-10/30) >17 routine monitoring days collected in 2013 Field measurements and chemistry analytes have been collected Event Monitoring (4 events were proposed for the project) Events were monitored in April, June, July, August, September, and October 6 runoff events (~ 55 total samples) monitored for Fall Creek, including Aug which was the highest flow peak of the year. Similar results for other 3 streams (Salmon Creek, Six-Mile Creek, and Cayuga Inlet)

20 UFI Tributary Monitoring Coverage: Fall Creek 42 days sampled > 1 sample per day

21 TP (ug/l) Biological and Environmental Engineering Fall Creek Series1 upstream discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m 3 /L) 0 12/31/ /19/ /10/ /30/ /19/ /07/ /27/2013 0

22 TDP (ug/l) Biological and Environmental Engineering Fall Creek Tributary Data outlet upstream discharge (m3/s) Discharge (m 3 /L) /31/ /19/ /10/ /30/ /19/ /07/ /27/2013 0

23 TDP (ug/l) Biological and Environmental Engineering Fall Creek (Bouldin data) Discharge (m 3 /L) /21/1972 3/18/ /12/1977 9/7/1980 6/4/1983 2/28/ /24/1988 8/21/1991 5/17/1994 2/10/1997

24 Fall Creek (CSI data)

25 TP (ug/l) Biological and Environmental Engineering Fall Creek (CSI data) Discharge (m 3 /L) /1/2001 5/16/2002 9/28/2003 2/9/2005 6/24/ /6/2007 3/20/2009 8/2/ /15/2011 4/28/2013

26 Some Known Data Sources USGS Stream discharge, Fall Cr., Sixmile Cr., Inlet, some Salmon Cr. Dave Bouldin Fall Creek, Cayuga Lake CSI Various points along several creeks Various independent research projects Easton et al Water Resources Research Likens Water and Nutrient Budgets for Cayuga Lake, New York Looking for more as part of this project

27 Thank You Acknowledgements Erin Menzies, Brian Buchanan, Becky Marjerison Also thanks to: Zach Easton, Tammo Steenhuis, Larry Geohring, Dan Fuka, NYC-DEP (Schneiderman/Zion), USDA-ARS (Gburek/Sharpley), NYS-DEC (Bishop) Could run through an example modeling analysis from the NYC watersheds

28 Evaluate Best Management Practices Tile Diversion New drainage, waterways, etc. Water Impervious/Barnyard Deciduous Forest Shrub Pasture Hay Crop

29 Riparian fencing/buffers Water Impervious/Barnyard Deciduous Forest Shrub Pasture Hay Crop

30 Barnyard improvements e.g., re-grade, divert water, concrete pad Water Impervious/Barnyard Deciduous Forest Shrub Pasture Hay Crop

31 Use the NYS P-Index to develop spreading schedule X

32 Dissolved P (kg) Cumulative Export (kg) Biological and Environmental Engineering Easton, Walter, Steenhuis J. Environ. Qual. (in press) Dissolved Phosphorus 20 Pre BMP Post BMP Oct 93 Nov 94 Apr 97 Jun 98 Jul 99 Jun 00 Jul 01 Aug 02 Jul 03 Observed Predicted Pre BMP Post BMP kg/ha-yr 0

33 Dissolved P (kg) Cumulative Export (kg) Biological and Environmental Engineering Easton, Walter, Steenhuis J. Environ. Qual. (in press) Dissolved P Export (kg) Export (kg) Measured Post BMP Modeled with no BMPs 0 Sept 20 Nov-96 Mar-97 Oct-97 May-98 Feb-99 Jun-99 Jul Dec Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jul b Measured Pre BMP 16 Modeled with BMPs and Manure P Export 12 a What If: We made no changes? Observed Modeled Post BMP kg/ha-yr Cumulative P Export (kg) P Export (kg)

34 Pre-BMP P Loss (g ha -1 d -1 ) 0 Complex Patterns of P Loss 20 b c Post-BMP P Loss (g ha -1 d -1 ) 0 No BMPs P Loss (g ha -1 d -1 ) 0 B E 20 20

35 Thank You Acknowledgements Erin Menzies, Brian Buchanan, Becky Marjerison Also thanks to: Zach Easton, Tammo Steenhuis, Larry Geohring, Dan Fuka, NYC-DEP (Schneiderman/Zion), USDA-ARS (Gburek/Sharpley), NYS-DEC (Bishop)

36 We want to avoid this Pollutant Sources Ditch - Stream Saturated Area

37 Monitoring/Data Strategy Why do we need new data? Why so many sites? Why not more data? We want to capture spatial and temporal variability We want as much data as possible

38 Some Known Data Sources USGS Stream discharge, Fall Cr., Sixmile Cr., Inlet, some Salmon Cr. Dave Bouldin Fall Creek, Cayuga Lake CSI Various points along several creeks We will look for more as part of this project

39 Distributed Modeling ET Precip Interflow Runoff Percolation Interflow Bedrock Reservoir Baseflow

40 Dissolved P (kg) Cumulative Export (kg) Biological and Environmental Engineering Easton, Walter, Steenhuis J. Environ. Qual. (in press) Example: Management questions 20 Pre BMP Post BMP Oct 93 Nov 94 Apr 97 Jun 98 Jul 99 Jun 00 Jul 01 Aug 02 Jul 03 Observed Predicted Pre BMP Post BMP kg/ha-yr 0

41 Take-home messages Nobody believes the model (except the guy who made it) Everybody believes the data (except the guy who collected them) So do both

42 What is a Watershed Model? A collection of equations that calculate the flow of water and pollutants. Weather Topography Land use Soils

43 Stream flow and Water Quality Data? Calibration: Because we do not have a perfect understanding of how the environment works, some equations need to be calibrated. Validation (or testing): We need to check that our calibrated model works be testing it against different data.

44 Stream Flow (cm/day) Biological and Environmental Engineering Example from the Catskills E = 0.84 Calibration Period Observed 10 Simulated

45 Progress to Date Assembled most base data (e.g., topography, land use, etc.) Proof-of-concept simple and complex modeling for Salmon Creek watershed Developing a systematic way to calibrate sub-watersheds Working on algorithm to predict stream sediment loads