Climate change science-models, past trends and future projection

Transcription

1 Climate Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Workshop on CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH: IMPACTS TO ADAPTATION held at ICDDRB, Dhaka, 1-3 December 2015 Climate change science-models, past trends and future projection Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

2 Outline Global Warming and Green house effect Climate Change Predictions Potential Impact of Climate Change Responsibility?

3 Climate Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Understanding climate change at Global, Regional and Local Scale

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5 Green house gases CO 2 and some other minor gases 1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth. 2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space. These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases. They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.

6 Climate Change, Global Warming and Green House Effect Co2 and some minor radioactively active gases are (known as greenhouse gases) acted as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse

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8 Increasing trends of CO2

9 Human induced changes of green house gases

10 CO 2 from the measuring station at Mauna Loa (Hawaii) is located at an altitude of 3400 meters

11 Global temperature and Greenhouse gases

12 Climate Forcing

13 Temperature variation past 1,000 years

14 Increase of Temperature past 140 year

15 Trends of increase of Temperature

16 Surface Air temperature ( )

17 Trends of Seal Surface temperature

18 Changes of Sea Surface Temperature

19 Ice melting Images from gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right)

20 Cracks in Ice bars

21 Sea Level Rise ( )

22 Trends of Precipitations

23 Predictions by Climate Models Climate models are computer-based simulations that use mathematical formulas to re-create the chemical and physical processes that drive Earth s climate. To run a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3- dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points. Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice.

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25 GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans.

26 Projected Annual Green House Gas Emission

27 Future Projection of Green House Gas

28 Global Average Surface warming

29 Projected Change in Average Annual Temperature

30 Near Term projections of global mean temperature

31 Predicted Arctic sea Ice Results from community climate system models Arctic Sea Ice in 2000 Arctic Sea Ice in 2040

32 Prediction of Sea level rise

33 Changes of Average Precipitation

34 Impacts of climate change Human Health impacts Ecosystem Impacts Agriculture Impacts Water Resources Impacts Market Impacts

35 Possible Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges. Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards Climate Refugees Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people. Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

36 Possible Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges. Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards Climate Refugees Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people. Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

37 Temperature Data Analysis of last 60 years ( ) Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of C per century 27 (c) y = x R 2 =

38 Increase of Costal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise and Intense Storm SMRC, 2005 IWM, 2010 Source: Murshed, M., Ahmed,Z., Khan, Z.H., and Hasan, M.M. (2010) Vulnerability of Coatal Region due to Storm Surge Inunda Changing Climate, Proceedings of the International MIKE by DHI Conference 2010, Denmark

39 Change of Flood Inundation area Source: IWM study for WARPO (2001)

40 Future Monthly Precipitation and temperature (changes from baseline) % change of Temperature from baseline In three future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s % change of Rainfall from baseline Paul and Islam et al. (2014)

41 Seasonal Changes of flow % Change of seasonal flo Change of seasonal flow Paul and Islam et al. (2014

42 Changes of flow in 2020s % Change of monthly flow Change of monthly flow

43 Changes of the future flows using CMIP5 CORDEX-SA data Future Projection of Mean Discharge in Brahmaputra River under RCP4.5 Scenario Future Projection of Mean Discharge in Brahmaputra River under RCP8.5 Scenario January February March April May June July August September October November December 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December historical rcp45_20s rcp45_50s rcp45_80s historical rcp85_20s rcp85_50s rcp85_80s Percent Change of Mean Discharge in Brahmaputra River under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% % January February March April May June July August September October November December rcp45_20s rcp85_20s rcp45_50s rcp85_50s rcp45_80s rcp85_80s

44 Predicted seasonal discharge of Brahmaputra River under RCP 8.5 scenarios of different RCMs RCM Model 1 ACCESS1-0_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M 2 CCSM4_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M 3 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM- CM5_SMHI-RCA4 4 CNRM-CM5_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M 5 ICHEC-EC-EARTH_SMHI-RCA4 6 MPI-ESM-LR_CSIRO-CCAM- 1391M 7 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_MPI-CSC- REMO MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_SMHI-RCA4 9 NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M_SMHI- RCA4 10 IPSL-CM5A-MR_SMHI-RCA4 11 MIROC-MIROC5_SMHI-RCA4

45 Summary of changes of riverine floods of Bangladesh in Brahmaputra river basin The uncertainty for pre-monsoon flow maintain through the end century which is very high. But the confidence level for increasing monsoon flow are more prominent. Majority of the model predicts future monsoon flow will be increase by 5 to 10%.

46 Impact of Crop Yield 30 Boro Rice 4 T. Aman Rice Rajbari Chapai Nawabganj Satkhira Sunamganj 2020s s 2080s 0-1 Rajbari Chapai Nawabganj Satkhira Sunamganj 2020s 2050s 2080s Source: Mondal et al. (2012) Changes in the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Temperature, Rainfall, Sunshine and Humidity in Bangladesh, Final Report, CDMP.

47 Climate Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Responsibility?

48 Global Emission

49 Per capita CO 2 emission

50 Per capita emission

51 Bangladesh ton ton

52 Thank you Questions?