Future Buildings Forum 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives. Brian Dean, International Energy Agency Singapore, October 2017

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1 Future Buildings Forum 217 Energy Technology Perspectives Brian Dean, International Energy Agency Singapore, October 217

2 A rapid reversal in trends to meet global climate ambitions Global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion Gt CO 2 eq RTS 2DS B2DS Meeting global ambitions to meet 2 C or below will require a rapid reduction in CO 2 emissions. Sources: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre; IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances; IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

3 Buildings are not on track to meet 2DS objectives Tracking Clean Energy Progress 217 Despite some positive developments in the last two years, more assertive action is still needed to put the global buildings sector on track. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

4 Energy demand in the buildings sector continues to grow Decomposition of global final energy demand in buildings by key contribution EJ Other Floor area Household occupancy Population Energy efficiency Final energy change Energy efficiency in buildings is not keeping up with the impact of a growing and more prosperous global population, resulting in 425 EJ of cumulative energy demand growth since 199. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

5 Through aggressive energy technology deployment Cumulative energy savings by end use relative to the RTS EJ DS B2DS Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other Rapid energy efficiency deployment, alongside shifts from fossil fuels to high performance, renewable and integrated energy technologies, leads to cumulative energy savings of EJ under the B2DS.

6 we can reverse historical trends Decomposition of global final energy demand in buildings by key contribution Historical EJ Population Floor area Activity Envelope improvements Product performance Technology choice Others Annual energy change B2DS EJ Energy efficiency measures under the B2DS reverse historical trends, offsetting the effect of an increasing global population, building activity drivers and growing floor area in buildings. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

7 Capturing the enormous energy efficiency potential in buildings Buildings final energy consumption by scenario and fuel type EJ MWh per person Renewables Commercial heat Electricity Natural gas Oil Coal Biomass (traditional) Energy intensity RTS 2DS B2DS Going to B2DS would increase electrification and the use of renewables Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

8 Space Heating and Cooling Mission Innovation challenge #7 OECD/IEA 217

9 MI challenge #7 : affordable heating and cooling in buildings Building end-use energy to RTS 16 B2DS EJ Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other Rapid energy efficiency deployment, and a shift from fossil fuels to high performance, renewable and integrated energy technologies, leads to most savings in heating and cooling under the B2DS. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

10 MI challenge #7 : affordable heating and cooling in buildings Heating and cooling final energy use and equipment stock shares by scenario Final energy use by equipment type Equipment shares 8 1% 6 75% EJ 4 5% 2 25% 214 RTS DS - 26 B2DS - 26 % 214 RTS DS - 26 B2DS - 26 Fossil fuel equipment Conventional electric equipment Efficient electric equipment District heating and cooling Renewables Strategic shifts to heat pumps, renewables and low-carbon & efficient district energy would cut final energy demand for heating and cooling by more than 4% in 26. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

11 Heat-pumps can drive energy efficiency in buildings 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% World Heating equipment energy efficiencies % Coal boilers Oil boilers Gas boilers Gas heat-pumps Electrical heat-pumps Modern solid biomass Heat pump technologies continue to improve and can drive energy efficiency in buildings. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

12 Heating equipment Evolution of heating equipment in buildings to 26 Inner to outer ring RTS 2DS B2DS Coal and oil boilers Gas boilers Efficient gas technologies Heat pumps Electric resistance District heat Solar thermal Efficient biomass Heat pumps, solar thermal and district heat is key to B2DS Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

13 Demand for space cooling is heating up Index 199 = Global energy consumption by building end-use, Space cooling Appliances and other equipment Lighting Water heating Cooking Space heating Space cooling (along with appliances and lighting) is expected to have significant growth. Source: IEA Energy Efficiency Market Report 216

14 Cooling sales aren t keeping up with performance potential Typical energy efficiency ratios of split-package air conditioners in % Co-efficient of performance % 6% 3% Average annual cooling growth to 225 Available performance Average performance Average annual growth rate in cooling to 225 USA China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa Brazil % Cooling demand could increase as much as tenfold in some countries over the next 4 years, and average equipment performance is far from its energy efficiency potential. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 216

15 Space cooling energy savings are achievable Cooling final energy (PJ) Cooling final energy savings potential, Cooling equipment policies New building envelope policies Retrofit building envelope policies Cooling equipment BAT New building envelope BAT Retrofit building envelope BAT Space cooling energy use could plateau by 26 with improved policies or decrease with the implementation of best available technology Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217, IEA Energy Efficiency Market Report 217

16 Lighting OECD/IEA 217

17 LED starts to see the light of day 1% Residential lighting sales share by technology type 8% 6% 4% LEDs LFLs CFLs Halogens Incandescents 2% % LED market share in residential lamp sales overtook incandescents in 215 and reached nearly 3% of the lighting market in 216.

18 Accelerating deployment of high-efficiency technologies Lighting equipment performance and residential LED sales share to 26 lm/w Share of residential LED sales 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Incandescent Halogen CFL LFL LED - RTS LED - 2DS LED - B2DS Rapid deployment of energy efficient technologies will create critical mass in the market, helping to lower technology costs and drive R&D for greater energy performance.

19 Building envelope OECD/IEA 217

20 Locking in better buildings today Changes in global residential building stock and energy intensity to 26 Billion m RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Average energy intensity improvement nzebs Renovated buildings Improvement New construction Renovated stock Global average High performance building construction and deep energy renovations of existing buildings play a critical role in reducing buildings sector energy demand.

21 to avoid energy demand tomorrow Consequences of a ten year delay in achieving building envelope objectives 1 Cumulative loss by region (EJ) EJ RTS B2DS Total heating nzeb and renovated buildings Other buildings Loss to delay loss 93 EJ 34 EJ Total cooling loss Eurasia 1 Other non-oecd 15 Other Asia 15 China 39 OECD 48 Delaying building envelope measures would result in the equivalent of three years of additional energy consumption for heating and cooling in the buildings sector.

22 A call to action OECD/IEA 217

23 Delivering sustainable energy in buildings at affordable prices 14 Building investment to 26 and share of total B2DS investment by key region USD trillion RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS Other Asia & Pacific 17% Middle East & Africa 18% Latin America & Caribbean 6% India 16% North America 12% China 18% Western Europe 1% Eurasia 3% OECD non-oecd Continued R&D and larger economies of scale can help to drive down the costs for high performance, energy efficient and renewable technologies to 26.

24 Technology strategies for a B2DS buildings sector Whole building High-performance envelope components and whole building packages nzeb(+) building construction across all countries Low-cost deep energy renovation solutions Zero-carbon building energy communities Heating and cooling equipment Improved thermal distribution and control High-performance heat pumps and solar thermal solutions Responsive and affordable thermal energy storage Integrated, flexible district energy solutions Lighting and appliances High-performance, lower cost solid state lighting Integrated design and control for lighting service High-efficiency appliance technologies Performance standards for plug loads and smarter use of connected devices Cooking and energy access Clean, affordable cooking solutions for developing countries Low-cost solar thermal and storage solutions Efficient, low-polluting biomass solutions Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

25 Policy strategies for a B2DS buildings sector Building construction & renovation Mandatory building energy codes for new and existing buildings Capacity building and training Financing and market incentives Cooperation and knowledge sharing Transition to zero-carbon buildings Long-term, strategic vision for energy transition Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and other perverse incentives Assertive market frameworks Integrated, flexible district energy solutions Rapid energy efficiency deployment Minimum energy performance standards Labelling and awareness programmes Financing and market incentives Support for market scale (e.g. bulk procurement) Technology innovation Supporting R&D beyond current BAT Cost reductions for critical technologies Integrated energy technology solutions Advances in clean energy technologies Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 217

26 Action: deliver multiple benefits through energy efficiency Energy Efficient Prosperity Energy efficiency as a means to support economic and social development.

27 IEA