Energy Technology Perspectives: Transitions to Sustainable Buildings

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1 Energy Technology Perspectives: Transitions to Sustainable Buildings John Dulac International Energy Agency IEA

2 Global buildings status report

3 Buildings are not on track to meet 2DS objectives Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017 Despite some positive developments in the last two years, more assertive action is still needed to put the global buildings sector on track.

4 Change since 1990 EJ EJ Change since 1990 Building energy intensity is not dropping fast enough Building energy use and intensity per m 2 since OECD 150% 75 Non-OECD 150% % % 45 90% 45 90% 30 60% 30 60% 15 30% 15 30% % % Biomass (traditional) Coal Oil Natural gas Electricity Commercial heat Renewables Intensity reduction Floor area growth Global building energy intensity per m 2 improved at roughly 1.5% per year since 1990, but this was not enough to offset strong growth in buildings sector floor area at nearly 3% per year.

5 Additions to 2060 (billion m 2 ) Share of additions built by 2035 Floor area will increase sharply over the next 20 years Floor area additions to 2060 by key regions 60 60% 50 50% % 30% 20% Non-residential Residential Share of additions 10 10% 0 North America Europe China India ASEAN Africa Middle East Latin America 0% Floor area additions to 2060 will largely occur in developing countries. Half of global building additions will be completed by 2035.

6 especially in regions not covered by building energy codes Building energy code coverage, 2015 Swift action is needed to address building envelope performance over the next 20 years to avoid the lock in of energy intensive building investments, especially in developing regions.

7 Forging a pathway to sustainable buildings

8 EJ MWh per person Capturing the enormous energy efficiency potential in buildings Buildings final energy consumption by scenario and fuel type Renewables Commercial heat Electricity Natural gas Oil Coal Biomass (traditional) Energy intensity RTS 2DS B2DS Going from RTS to B2DS would save the equivalent of twice global energy production in 2014.

9 in support of net-zero emissions by 2060 Key contributions to CO 2 emissions reduction in buildings 10 8 RTS Direct emissions reduction Gt CO2 6 4 Envelope improvement Technology performance DS B2DS Technology choice Indirect (power) More than 50% of cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction in buildings to 2060 under the B2DS results from shifts to low carbon and high performance technologies.

10 Average energy intensity improvement Locking in better buildings today Changes in global residential building stock and energy intensity to % nzebs % Renovated buildings Billion m % 30% 20% Improvement New construction 30 10% Renovated stock 0 RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS RTS 2DS / B2DS 0% Global average High performance building construction and deep energy renovations of existing buildings play a critical role in reducing buildings sector energy demand.

11 EJ to avoid energy demand tomorrow Consequences of a ten year delay in achieving building envelope objectives 100 Cumulative loss by region (EJ) RTS B2DS Total heating nzeb and renovated buildings Other buildings Loss to delay loss 93 EJ 34 EJ Total cooling loss Eurasia 10 Other non-oecd 15 Other Asia 15 China 39 OECD 48 Delaying implementation and enforcement of building envelope measures would result in the equivalent of three years of additional energy consumption for heating and cooling in the buildings sector.

12 Transitioning to a low-carbon buildings sector Evolution of heating equipment in buildings to 2060 Inner to outer ring RTS 2DS B2DS Coal and oil boilers Gas boilers Efficient gas technologies Heat pumps Electric resistance District heat Solar thermal Efficient biomass The B2DS represents a strategic shift away from fossil fuel equipment to high efficiency and renewable technologies, such as heat pumps, solar thermal and modern district energy.

13 Co-efficient of performance Average annual cooling growth to 2025 Cooling sales aren t keeping up with performance potential Typical energy efficiency ratios of split-package air conditioners in % % 6% 3% Available performance Average performance Average annual growth rate in cooling to USA China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa Brazil 0% Cooling demand could increase as much as tenfold in some countries over the next 40 years, and average equipment performance is far from its energy efficiency potential.

14 A call to action

15 Technology strategies for a B2DS buildings sector Whole building High-performance envelope components and whole building packages nzeb(+) building construction across all countries Low-cost deep energy renovation solutions Zero-carbon building energy communities Heating and cooling equipment Improved thermal distribution and control High-performance heat pumps and solar thermal solutions Responsive and affordable thermal energy storage Integrated, flexible district energy solutions Lighting and appliances High-performance, lower cost solid state lighting Integrated design and control for lighting service High-efficiency appliance technologies Performance standards for plug loads and smarter use of connected devices Cooking and energy access Clean, affordable cooking solutions for developing countries Low-cost solar thermal and storage solutions Efficient, low-polluting biomass solutions

16 Policy strategies for a B2DS buildings sector Building construction & renovation Mandatory building energy codes for new and existing buildings Capacity building and training Financing schemes and market incentives Cooperation and knowledge sharing Transition to zero-carbon buildings Long-term, strategic vision for energy transition Phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and other perverse incentives Assertive market frameworks Integrated, flexible district energy solutions Rapid energy efficiency deployment Minimum energy performance standards Labelling and awareness programmes Financing schemes and market incentives Support for market scale (e.g. bulk procurement) Technology innovation Supporting R&D beyond current BAT Cost reductions for critical technologies Integrated energy technology solutions Advances in clean energy technologies

17 Thank you! Contact: IEA