CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

Transcription

1 CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas June-July Why Bury Pipelines? By Thorn Walden The vast majority of energy and water pipelines are buried, generally to a depth of - metres. One notable exception is the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS), much of which is elevated to avoid melting permafrost. (A small section is buried and refrigerated, again to avoid melting permafrost.) Various pipelines have small sections that protrude above ground level. Another is the Tas-Tumas/ Yakutsk natural gas pipeline in Siberia, also traversing permafrost. Most of it is above ground on untreated timber H-supports or within a berm. The TAPS oil pipeline is elevated sufficiently to enable large animals to pass beneath at various crossing points. Even so, it has been observed that mosquito-harassed caribou tend to balk at crossing beneath. Animals apparently prefer a ramp to enable them to cross over rather than under a pipeline. The comparative risks to pipeline integrity are not straightforward. One might think that exposure to the elements would be a disadvantage to aboveground pipelines. Third-party damage to buried pipelines from construction equipment is one of the more common causes of ruptures to buried pipeline, although above-ground pipelines are not immune to third-party damage. Enbridge recently suffered a CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei (mmei@ceri.ca) Contents Featured Article... Natural Gas Prices... Weather... Consumption and Production... Transportation... Storage... Liquefied Natural Gas... Drilling Activity... rupture near a pumping station in Illinois when two drag racers crashed through a chain-link fence and continued more than feet to hit the aboveground pipeline. A third alternative has been proposed by Alexander Bolonkin, based on the buoyancy of natural gas. He envisions a trunk natural gas pipeline that would be tethered rather like a helium-filled balloon, not elevated or buried. Methane, the chief constituent of natural gas, has half of the molecular weight of oxygen, so the buoyancy would disappear as pressure approaches two atmospheres. Pressure in conventional natural gas pipelines often exceeds atmospheres, so a tethered pipeline would have to be of much larger diameter to preserve buoyancy. (Bolonkin proposes to keep pipeline pressure below. atmospheres.) In order to keep the pipeline buoyant, he also proposes replacing the conventional metal or plastic pipeline material with a double layer of lightweight flexible thin film. He illustrates the concept with a pipeline design that calls for a diameter of metres, with the bulk of the pipeline elevated 9 metres above the land surface. Bolonkin claims that such a pipeline would be orders of magnitude cheaper to construct than a buried pipeline, and would require less energy to operate. Among the other advantages, he cites the following: Much lower environmental impact as clearance of an entire right-of-way would be unnecessary, and river crossings would not require trenching or directional drilling Possible shortening of construction time from years to months Reduced interference with enjoyment of surface rights Ease of repair Reduced exposure to theft and terrorism Relevant Independent Objective

2 Page Although natural gas is the most obvious commodity to transport in this fashion, Bolonkin also claims that it can be used to transport heavier-than-air commodities, using what he calls a wing container, that employs a very light monorail. Rather than construct a canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea to prevent the water levels in the latter from continuing to fall, he proposes to cover 9 percent of the Dead Sea surface with plastic, and to transport water from the Red Sea by means of a - metre tethered pipeline at an estimated one twenty -fifth of the capital cost of the proposed canal. Endnotes McFadden, T. T. and F. L. Bennett, Construction in Cold Regions: A Guide for Planners, Engineers, Contractors and Managers, Wiley, 99, p. 9. Truett, J. C. and S.R. Johnson, The Natural History of an Arctic Oil Field: Development and the Biota, Academic Press,, p.. Two Cars in Fiery Pipeline Crash were Drag-Racing, Police Say, Chicago Tribune, March,. Bolonkin, A. A., A Cheap Levitating Gas/Load Pipeline, accessed at arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/ papers/..pdf. CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

3 Page US$/MMBtu Henry Hub/AECO Beginning of Next Month Spot Price Henry Hub 9 AECO-C Differential - Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- US$/MMBtu Henry Hub/Chicago Beginning of Next Month Spot Price Henry Hub Chicago Differential Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily Price Guide. US$/MMBtu Henry Hub/Rockies Beginning of Next Month Spot Price Henry Hub 9 Rockies Differential - Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- US$/MMBtu 9 - Henry Hub/Southern California Beginning of Next Month Spot Price Henry Hub Southern California Differential Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily Price Guide. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily Price Guide. Relevant Independent Objec ve

4 Page Canadian Heating Degree Days Canadian Heating Degree Days vs Residential and Commercial Consumption -Year Avg. Degree Days, Degree Days Consumption CERI Estimate, Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-9Jul-9Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul- SOURCE: Canadian Gas Associa on. SOURCE: CERI, Canadian Gas Associa on, Sta s cs Canada. US Heating Degree Days US Heating Degree Days vs Residential and Commercial Consumption, -Year Avg. 9 Degree Days, Degree Days Consumption CERI Estimate, Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-9Jul-9Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul- SOURCE: Canadian Gas Associa on, NOAA. SOURCE: CERI, NOAA, EIA. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

5 Page SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: NOAA. Relevant Independent Objec ve

6 Page SOURCE: NOAA. SOURCE: Environment Canada. SOURCE: NOAA. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

7 Page Canadian Consumption Canadian Marketable Production By Sector By Province/Region Industrial & Power Commercial Residential BC, Yukon, NWT AB SK E. Coast Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- SOURCE: Sta s cs Canada. SOURCE: Sta s cs Canada, NEB. US Consumption By Sector Industrial Electric Power Commercial Residential US Marketable Production US Total Louisiana GOM Federal Waters Texas Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- SOURCE: EIA. SOURCE: EIA. Relevant Independent Objec ve

8 Page BC, Yukon, NWT Marketable Production AB Marketable Production SOURCE: Sta s cs Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Sta s cs Canada, NEB. SK Marketable Production East Coast Marketable Production SOURCE: Sta s cs Canada, NEB. SOURCE: Sta s cs Canada, NEB. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

9 Page 9 System Field Receipts TransCanada + Westcoast; Monthly Average Alberta System Deliveries Empress McNeil AB-BC Alliance Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- SOURCE: CERI. SOURCE: CERI. Canadian Gas Exports to the US Canadian Gas Exports to the US By Export Point - West Kingsgate Monchy Elmore Huntingdon 9 By Export Point - East Emerson Iroquois Others Niagara 9 May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB. Relevant Independent Objec ve

10 Page US Imports of Canadian Gas Average Canadian Export Price By US Region By US Region West MidWest East C$/GJ West MidWest East May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- SOURCE: NEB. SOURCE: NEB. Total US Pipeline Gas Imports Canada Mexico Canadian Gas Imports By Import Point Courtright Sarnia St. Clair Other May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- SOURCE: NEB, EIA. SOURCE: NEB. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

11 Page Canadian Working Gas Storage Canadian Storage by Region -Year Avg. West East Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. US Lower- Working Gas Storage US Storage by Region, -Year Avg.,,, East West Producing Region,,,,,,,,,,,, Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. Relevant Independent Objec ve

12 Page - - Western WC_IJ_WD Canada Storage Injections/Withdrawals -Year Avg. - Eastern Canadian Storage Injections/Withdrawals -Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. Canadian Storage Injections/Withdrawals -Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

13 Page US Western Consuming Region Storage Injections/Withdrawals US Eastern Storage Injections/Withdrawals Year Avg Year Avg. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. US Producing Region Storage Injections/Withdrawals US Storage Injections/Withdrwals -Year Avg. -Year Avg SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. SOURCE: CERI, Pla s Gas Daily. Relevant Independent Objec ve

14 Page Eastern US LNG Imports By Facility US GOM LNG Imports By Facility BCF Cove Point Elba Island Everett NE Gateway Neptune Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- BCF Freeport Lake Charles Sabine Pass Cameron Golden Pass Gulf LNG Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. US LNG Imports By Origin Volume-Weighted Average LNG Price BCF Egypt Nigeria Trinidad Norway Qatar Yemen Peru US$/MMBtu Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- SOURCE: US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

15 Page SOURCE: US DOE, NEB. SOURCE: US DOE. Japan US LNG Exports to Japan US LNG Exports By Exporter BCF BCF ConocoPhillips Marathon Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- SOURCE: EIA, US DOE. SOURCE: US DOE. Relevant Independent Objec ve

16 Page North American Active Rigs Rigs, US WCSB, Canadian Rig Fleet Utilization Weekly Average Active Rigs Rigs, Active Rigs Total Rig Drilling Fleet 9,,, Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- SOURCE: CERI, CAODC, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. WCSB Active Rigs by Province Western Canada Active Rigs Weekly Average Rigs SK AB BC Weekly Average Rigs -Year Avg. Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul Week Number SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. SOURCE: CERI, CAODC. CERI Commodity Report Natural Gas

17 Page US Total Active Rigs US Total Active Rigs Rigs,, Oil-Directed Gas-Directed Gas-Directed %,,,,,, Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- % 9% % % % % % % % % % Rigs, Total Oil-Directed GOM Gas-Directed Onshore Gas-Directed,,, Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. US Gulf of Mexico Active Rigs Rigs Oil-Directed Gas-Directed Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan- SOURCE: CERI, Baker Hughes. Relevant Independent Objec ve