Anthropogenic Global Warming. Be aware, be concerned and. start acting. - it is real

Transcription

1 Anthropogenic Global Warming - it is real Be aware, be concerned and start acting

2 Ben Rose Sustainability Consultant, Nov 2009

3 AIMING FOR CARBON NEUTRAL -THE 4 C S 1. CO2e AWARENESS 2. CUT DOWN on CO2e emitting items/ activities 3. CHOOSE CLEAN EFFICIENT 4. CARBON OFFSET (e.g plant trees)

4

5

6 Sea-ice_1950s-2050s.gif (81KB, MIME type: image/gif) Projected changes in Arctic sea ice from 1950 to 2050 based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's R30 atmosphereocean general circulation model. This image is a work of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, taken or made during the course of an employee's official duties. As works of the U.S. federal government, all NOAA images are in the public domain.

7

8 The alarming prediction was made by a research team led by James Hansen, from NASA's Goddard Institute, and published in a peer-reviewed paper titled Climate Change and Trace Gases. The document argues the Earth is perilously close to entering a new era of runaway climate change, warning that while conditions are currently classified as "serious", they are likely to tip into "dangerous" over the next decade. It says while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had forecast a sea level rise of 18cm-59cm, that figure did not take into account melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

9

10 Two Must See - films : AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH. by Al Gore If we don t believe the rightful president of the United States, who do we believe? CRUDE the incredible journey of oil

11 Global warming The causes

12 the atmosphere Most of the atmosphere (about 80%) is within 16 km of sea level. Air that is dense enough for us to breathe is less than 5 km above sea level.

13 THE CARBON CYCLE IS OUT OF BALANCE While natural processes, e.g. photosynthesis by plants in oceans and forests, can absorb about half of the 6.3 billion t of anthropogenic carbon emissions (23.1 billion t of carbon dioxide) an estimated 11.6 billion t CO2e is added to the atmosphere annually.

14

15 Global warming The science

16 Mann et al, This graph is to year 2000 and shows CO2 only. If we count all GHG s (NOx, methane, HFC s) CO2e levels may have already increased by 60% from pre-industrial levels to 455 ppm, the level of dangerous climate change

17 Sea level rise (ice melting, >1000 yr Sea level rise (expansion) Global temperature CO2 in atmosphere Rate of CO2 emission

18 Source: Ruddiman, F. (Scientific American, March 2005)

19

20 Greenhouse gasesthe sources

21 Global CO2 emissions are increasing by > 2.5% per year this century) Chinas emissions are estimated to increase 11% per year (University of California, 2008). Expected to surpass those of the United States before India is the other major polluter that is expected to have significant growth in emissions over the next 20 years. (Energy Information Administration 2007)

22 Greenhouse gas emissions are expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e). They are, in order of total global warming impact: carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O ), methane (CH4) - 20 times more potent than CO2 nitrous oxide (N2O ) times more potent than CO2 There are small amounts of man-made greenhouse gases but their effect is relatively minor. All greenhouse gases are molecules composed of more than two component atoms, bound loosely enough together to be able to vibrate with the absorption of heat (infra-red radiation). The major components of the atmosphere (N2 and 02) are two-atom molecules too tightly bound together to vibrate and thus they do not absorb heat and contribute to the greenhouse effect.

23 Greenhouse gases, in order of total global warming impact: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Water vapor (H2O ), Methane (CH4) - 20 times more potent than CO2 Nitrous oxide (N2O ) times more potent than CO2

24 in its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC points to the need for reductions in global GHG emissions of at least 40 per cent by 2050 and 75 per cent by 2100 in order to limit global warming to between 1.2 deg. and 2.3 deg.c by the year There is growing acceptance internationally of the need for deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions this century. The UK has set a goal to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.