Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Options: The Nigerian Experience

Transcription

1 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Options: The Nigerian Experience Prof. Ayobami T. Salami Head, Space Application and Environmental Laboratory (SPAEL), & Coordinator, Climate Change Unit, Institute of Ecology and Environmental Studies, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

2 Introduction Climate change is the single biggest environmental issue facing the world today. 10 Million species (lower animals and plants) versus 1 species (man) Climate Change: Ecosystems and Biodiversity Nigeria is one of the most vulnerable countries in Africa.

3 Focus of the Presentation This presentation attempts to answer the following questions: Why should we bother about Climate Change? How vulnerable is Nigeria to climate change? What are the potential effects of climate change on Nigeria?

4 Focus Contd. What is the present level of our adaptive capacity to climate change? What needs to be done with respect to mitigation and adaptation options?

5 Why should we bother?

6 Variations of the Earth s surface temperature in the last 1000 years

7 Climate Change: Human Activities

8 Inbalance of component for climate stabilization (UNEP, 2009)

9 With permission from Mathis Wackernagel

10 SITUATION REPORT In recent years, the beginning/end of rainy season has become less and less predictable for farmers IPCC (2007) predicts global warming will be more intense in Africa than in the rest of the world West Africa has seen a drop (20 40%) in annual rainfall in recent decades (between 1930 to 1990) Current global projections predict sea level rise of between cm by

11 Evidence of Climate Change in Nigeria The effects of climate change have already been felt in many parts of the country with the modifications of: Intensity and seasonal nature of the rains; Elevation of average annual temperatures; and Increased frequency of widespread, high impact weather phenomena including drought and flooding.

12 Spatially aggregated rainfall (x10 5 mm) Cyclical Fluctuation of Rainfall in Nigeria ( ) y = x Years

13 Our Vulnerability Why then are the people in Nigeria increasingly vulnerable to the impact of climate change? More and more people are living and working in climate change-prone areas in Nigeria. Over 60% of the country's total industrial establishments are in coastal areas. Although people may not be directly affected by the hazard, but when productive infrastructure, including land and crops, are damaged or destroyed, the loss of income can have a serious effect on health and well-being.

14 Nigeria s Triple Vulnerabilities Land-based vulnerability to the environmental impact of CC (desert encroachment & threatened coastline) Economic vulnerability as Nigeria depends on revenue from fossil fuel production Population-based vulnerability since majority of Nigerians are resource-poor rural dwellers whose poverty burden might be compounded by CC (resulting in increased human misery). Significant portions of its population and economy are tied to activities that are climate sensitive, such as rainfed agriculture, livestock rearing, fisheries, and forest products extraction, The northern Sahel zone and the heavily populated coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change.

15 Climate Change Induced Land Degradation

16 Relationship with Population Density

17 Nigeria and Climate Change... Nigeria faces many significant challenges associated with climate change. Low levels of awareness of climate change amongst policy makers and the public at large, and poor understanding of its risks have hindered effective decision making.

18 Expected Climate Change in Nigeria Climate change scenarios and projections should inform new policies, programs and other measures that support climate change adaptation. To develop climate change scenarios, it is important to consider the various processes that influence GHG emission sources and sinks (where GHG is absorbed and retained), such as population growth, socioeconomic development, technological progress, alternative energy systems and land-use changes, among others.

19 BNRCC There has been inadequate information to date in Nigeria on future climate scenarios and impacts. In order to rectify this situation, a study was recently commissioned to provide scenarios of future rainfall, temperature changes, heat waves, droughts and extreme weather events. The work was undertaken through a partnership between the Climate Research Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa and the Institute of Ecology and Environmental Studies at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

20 BNRCC A statistical downscaling approach was employed to downscale simulations of 9 GCMs over 40 NIMET stations in Nigeria. Downscaled baseline climate data ( ) was established over the 40 Nigerian stations and the four zones, using the empirical downscaling method (Hewitson and Crane, 2006).

21 Nigerian Vulnerability to Climate Change

22 Annual Variation in Temperature and Rainfall over Southern Nigeria

23 Annual Variation in Temperature and Rainfall over Northern Nigeria

24 Nigerian Vulnerability to Climate Change

25 Nigerian Vulnerability to Climate Change

26 PRELIMINARY RESULTS Findings suggest a warmer climate in the future. The strongest scenario projects a temperature increase of 0.04oC per year from now till The coastal regions are projected to warm less than the interior regions, because of the cooling effects from the Atlantic Ocean; The northerly stations are expected to be warmer than the southerly stations. The highest increase occurs in the northeast.

27 PRELIMINARY RESULTS CONTD. The projected changes in precipitation vary across the country, with the scenario suggesting a wetter climate in the south along the coast, but a drier climate in the northeast from now till The scenarios suggest a peak increase in rainfall of about 2 mm/day in August over Mangrove and Rainforest zones and about 1 mm/day in rainfall in the same month over the derived and guinea savanna zones.

28 IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and severity of floods, droughts and other extreme events. Drastic changes in rainfall patterns with rising temperatures will introduce unfavorable growing conditions. This will modify growing seasons which could subsequently reduce productivity Are farmers and fishermen aware of climate change? How vulnerable are they? What according to them are the causes of climate change?

29 Sea Incursion into the Built-Up Area

30 Climate Change Projections

31

32 The Nigerian Experience... Climate Change Impacts...

33 Challenges How do we mitigate the CO 2 emissions in a country with rapid growth in energy consumption and production like in Nigeria? How do we prepare Nigeria for the consequences of climate change? How do we secure availability of water and food?

34 Challenges... Becoming a low carbon society is quite a challenge for Nigeria as its economy is highly dependent on fossil fuel. The aftermath effect of Nigerian government inaction to climate change mitigation and adaptation now will be that the cost will result in an higher price later.

35 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Options Mitigation Mitigation involves finding ways to slow the emissions of GHGs or to store them, or to absorb them in forests or other carbon sinks. At the core of most proposals is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through: Improved energy efficiency performance of new and existing buildings/infrastructures and influencing behaviour of occupants;

36 A SHOPPING LIST

37 Mitigation... Reducing the need to travel through affordable and efficient communications system Ensuring good accessibility to public and other sustainable modes of transport; Embark on vehicle emission monitoring programme Promoting land use that acts as carbon sinks; and Encouraging development and use of renewable energy

38 Adaptation Adaptation, on the other hand, involves coping with climatic change taking measures to reduce the negative effects, or exploit the positive ones, by making appropriate adjustments. The level of preparedness of a person, community or nation refers to pre-defined emergency actions that could be activated when extreme climate events or natural disasters occur in order to minimize damages which are likely to result

39 Adaptation... Adaptive capacity of a nation or region relates closely to its: level of wealth; Strength of educational institutions; and Access to technology. This implies that the more developed nations are better equipped to deal with the risks and dangers associated with climate change.

40 Mitigation and Adaptation... Until recently, policy makers concentrated on mitigation, partly because of worries that highlighting adaptation options might reduce the urgency for mitigation. Mitigation is essential and adaptation is inevitable. It must be stated however, that mitigation and adaptation are not alternatives; both need to be pursued actively and in parallel.

41 Mitigation and Adaptation... Public Awareness programme on climate change and environmental issues Environmental Education Programmes in Schools Zero tolerance to unsustainable lifestyle

42 Iterative Steps in planned Adaptation to Climate Change

43 Suggestions Improving Climate Forecasting Capacity; Capitalizing on Local Knowledge and Adaptation Strategies; Involving Local Actors and Stakeholders in Environmental Management; Integrating Climate Change/modeling into Regional Development Strategies by NDDC, Ministry of Niger Delta etc.

44 Suggestions Contd. All companies must be held responsible for the consequences of their actions, including financial responsibility for negative impacts; Partnerships between government, the private sector and civil society must be built

45 Some Issues for Consideration Many of the freshwater resources in the region are trans-boundary watercourses which are not appropriately accounted for as far as national strategies are concerned; The current exchange of adaptation experiences is poor, even when good practices are concerned;

46 Some Issues for Consideration Availability of expertise, considered on a per country basis, is sometimes insufficient to face up to the scientific and technical challenges posed by climate change; Science and policy are sometimes disconnected at the regional level. There is a great need to put science at the service of decision-making and ensure that the concerns raised by decision makers are taken into account by scientists.

47 Strengthening Mitigation and Adaptation in Nigeria through Green Technology Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Tariffs Energy Efficient Fuel Energy Efficiency in Transportation Sector

48 Strengthening Mitigation and Adaptation in Nigeria... Energy Efficient Buildings Compliance with Developmental Plans Environmental Fiscal Measures Research, Development and Demonstration

49 Concluding Remarks... The existing government agencies and commissions saddled with the responsibilities for the strategic planning and co-ordination of national policies related to climate variability/change in Nigeria should be sufficiently strengthened to achieve the desired goals and objectives. Improved understanding of the key drivers of climate variability and climate change in Nigeria is required.

50 Concluding Remarks... There is need for improved computer models of climate variability and change over Nigeria which must include downscaling global circulation models using appropriate methods for understanding social/economic impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation requirements. Sufficient attention must be paid to the impacts of climate change in Nigeria with a view to formulating adaptive strategies, resilience and coping mechanisms.

51 Concluding Remarks... Renewable energy sources such as wind energy, solar energy, hydroelectric power energy e.t.c. should be adopted and encouraged as alternatives to fossil fuel. Trans-boundary water resources management, particularly across West African sub-region should be initiated. Mass transport system including rail transport should be developed to reduce proliferation of cars and motorcycles on our roads.

52 Prioritizing actions Easy Tackle items in this quadrangle first Importance Low Importance High Difficult

53 Thanks For your attention