ICEM and MRC - SEA of hydropower on mainstream Mekong River 1

Transcription

1 1 1. PURPOSE OF THE SEA 2. WHAT IS AN SEA? 3. SEA SYSTEMS IN THE REGION 4. THE PLAN THE SEA IS ASSESSING 5. THE SEA APPROACH 6. INITIAL REVIEW OF KEY ISSUES Jeremy Carew-Reid, Team Leader MRC SEA of hydropower on mainstream Mekong

2 2 Aims of the SEA SEA purpose, objectives and outputs

3 Purpose of the SEA 3 Identify the potential opportunities and risks as well as contribution of hydropower to regional development by assessing: mainstream Mekong hydropower development strategies, the regional distribution of costs and benefits with respect to economic development, social equity and environmental protection.

4 Objectives of the SEA 4 Hydropower focus: 1. Provide an understanding of the implications of mainstream hydropower development 2. Provide specific policy-level recommendations to support decisions on whether and how those hydropower projects should best be pursued; 3. Provide an initial baseline and assessment framework for individual mainstream project EIAs, thereby supporting the Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement SEA as a tool in development planning: 1. Serve as a methodological framework for sub-basin hydropower SEAs in the LMB, which will be carried out as input to MRC s Basin Development Plan; and 2. Include capacity building to strengthen the respective analytical SEA capabilities in the concerned line agencies of the MRC Member States.

5 SEA expected outputs 5 A comprehensive SEA of mainstream hydropower development in the LMB including: 1. Specific recommendations supporting decisions relating to mainstream development plans 2. Environmental safeguards and mitigation measures linked to hydropower planning in the LMB 3. Recommendations for institutional and policy reform 4. Recommendation for improving the guidelines for SEA in the hydropower sector 5. A set of tools and a database for future SEAs in the hydropower sector 6. Enhanced capacity for conducting SEAs

6 6 What is an SEA? The main characteristics of strategic environmental assessment as a development planning tool

7 7 Limitation of EIA as a development planning tool Come late in the planning process Site specific Project specific (often sub-project specific) dealing separately with, eg: Dam and reservoir Transmission lines Roads Resettlement areas Limited consideration of economic and social issues Limited consideration of alternatives (eg sites) Limited consideration of cumulative impacts with other sectors No long term analysis of impacts (forecasting)

8 What is an SEA? 8 Can follow similar steps to EIA but have much larger boundaries in terms of time, space and subject coverage Identify and assess the strategic trade offs between sectors and areas (eg between provinces or countries) Act to integrate environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability Include assessment of cumulative impacts of many projects within a plan Define approaches for managing the strategic trade offs and issues relating to development options Serve as an umbrella level of analysis that shapes more specific SEAs and EIAs and improves their quality

9 SEA is... 9 An analytical and participatory approach that aims to integrate environmental considerations into policies and plans and evaluate inter linkages with economic and social considerations.

10 SEA can 10 Evaluate (i) an existing plan (to improve environmental performance in on-going implementation) or (ii) an existing plan which is to be revised or (iii) Contribute to preparing a new plan (so that it addresses environmental concerns as the plan takes shape).

11 SEA of plans 11 Sector or spatial policies and planning levels Basin, national or sector policies and plans SEA provides common baseline for CIAs and EIAs Project level Project proposals CIA of EIAs of cascades projects

12 SEA may have different forms 12 It may: focus (i) only on environmental impacts or (ii) integrate environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability; engage (i) a broad range of stakeholders or (ii) be limited to expert evaluation; be conducted (i) in a short time frame or (ii) over a long period;

13 SEA is best. 13 carried out as part of the plan formulation based on quick appraisal techniques It is much less effective as: a stand alone procedure a mega-eia

14 14 SEA systems in the region

15 SEA in China 15 SEA to be applied to land use plans and plans for regions, river basins and sea areas plans prepared by ten main development sectors - industry, agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, energy, water, conservation, transportation, urban construction, tourism and natural resources development. A draft plan without an SEA cannot be approved and implemented. Projects under plans cannot proceed without an SEA of the plan China, 37 SEAs have been conducted at national level and more than 100 at local government level.

16 SEA in Vietnam 16 Strong legal basis for SEA of strategies and plans (not policies) Shifts responsibility to plan owners An open process with stakeholder involvement Extensive program of piloting SEAs 6 at national level and some 20 at local level. Vietnam s SEA similar to sustainability analysis it covers environmental, social and economic affects Hydropower the focus of three most comprehensive SEAs under the new legal framework

17 Vietnam 17 SEA for 6 categories of strategies and plans: 1. National socio-economic development 2. Sector development (each central govt. agency) 3. Provinces and cities 4. Inter-provincial (regional) land use, forest protection and development, natural resource development 5. Key economic regions 6. basins

18 SEA in other LMB countries 18 Thailand: SEA guidelines and policy commitment moving to legislation. Piloting SEA. Cambodia: No formal requirement for SEA. Pilot SEA of the national tourism development strategy Laos: No formal requirement for SEA. SEA of the national hydropower plan in Lao PDR, with a focus on the Nam Thuen II Hydropower Project. The project EIA was a cumulative, area-wide assessment on a regional scale but could not address many of the wider strategic concerns associated with the project.

19 Mekong regional SEAs 19 Only three at regional level (on-going): I. the GMS NSEC SAP and II. III. the MRC hydro on mainstream Mekong The MRC three Ss cumulative assessment ADB GMS Power Trade RETA to recommend two pilot SEAs for two river basins in the region ADB EOC to conduct SEA of EWEC MRC BDB scenario assessment similar to an SEA?

20 20 The plan the SEA is assessing All SEAs are linked to a plan or policy

21 Mekong region development planning system 21 GMS economic sector planning (3 year cycle) BDP integrated spatial planning National planning Local government planning Some regional planning Project planning Key characteristics of planning system Project and investment driven Far reaching multiplier and cumulative effects Piecemeal environmental assessment Little spatial or integrated planning Not transparent or inclusive

22 Candidate plans as the SEA focus GMS energy road map 2. Basin Development Plan 3. The 4 national power development plans 4. The 8 & 11 existing and planned mainstream projects in Yunnan Province, Lao PDR and Cambodia

23 Dams on the mainstream Mekong Upper Mekong 8 existing or planned Lower Mekong 11 planned Dams on Mekong Tributaries Existing and planned 94 (only hydro dams does not include irrigation dams 23

24 Developers Dam Developer Country Pak Beng Datang International Power Generation China Louangprabang Petrovietnam Power Corporation Vietnam Xayabouly SEAN & Ch. Karnchang Public Co Ltd Thailand Pak Lay CEIEC and Sino-Hydro China Sanakham Datang International Power Generation China Pakchom N/a Ban Koum Italian Thai Asia Corp. Holdings Thailand Latsua Charoen Energy and Water Asia Co Ltd Thailand Don Sahong Mega First Malaysia Stung Treng Open Joint Stock Co. Bureyagessttroy Russian Sambor China Southern Power Grid China

25 Dam Status Environmental study status Commission date Status Pak Beng MoU, feasibility IEE submitted 2016 Louangprabang MoU, feasibility Feasibility study, 2016 Xayabouly MoU, feasibility Feasibility and full ESIA submitted 2016 Pak Lay MoU, feasibility IEE submitted 2016 Sangkham MoU, feasibility Not yet 2016 Pakchom Master Plan Not yet 2017 Ban Koum MoU, feasibility Not yet 2017 Latsua MoU, pre-feasibility Pre-feasibility study submitted 2018 Don Sahong MoU, detailed planning Full EIA submitted, Additional studies requested 2013 Stung Treng MoU, pre-feasibility Not yet N/a Sambor MoU, pre-feasibility Pre-feasibility submitted 2020

26 Statistics about the dams Project Name Rated Head m Plant Design Dischar ge m3/s Installed Capacity MW Peaking Capability MW Mean Annual Energy GWh Firm Annual Energy GWh Pakbeng 31 7,250 1,230 1,230 5,517 4,073 Luangprabang 40 3,812 1,410 1,412 5,437 4,205 Xayabuly 24 6,018 1,260 1,260 6,035 5,139 Paklay 26 4,500 1,320 1,320 6,460 4,252 Sanakham 25 5,918 1,200 1,200 5,015 3,978 Pakchom 22 5,720 1,079 1,079 5,318 5,052 Ban Kum 19 11,700 1,872 1,872 8,434 8,012 Latsua 10 9, ,504 2,452 Don Sahong 17 2, ,375 1,989 Stung Treng 15 18, ,870 2,937 Sambor 33 17,668 2,600 2,030 11,740 9,150 TOTAL 14,111 64,706 51,239

27 Statistics about the dams Project Name Full Supply Level mamsl Low Supply Level mamsl Live Storage mcm Reservoir area sq km Pakbeng Luangprabang Xayabuly Paklay Sanakham Pakchom Ban Kum Latsua Don Sahong ha Stung Treng Sambor TOTAL 1367

28 Dimensions (these details are changing as design proceeds) Dam Length of dam (m) Height (m) Reservoir area (sq.km) Pak Beng Louang Prabang 1, Xayabouly Pak Lay Sanakham 1, Pakchom 1, Ban Koum Latsua n/a na 13 Don Sahong ha Stung Treng 10, Sambor 18,

29 People to be resettled Dam Revised estimates No estimates yet of downstream affected people Pak Beng 6,694 Louangprabang 17,700 Xayabouly 2,151 Pak Lay 18,000 Sanakham 12,950 Pakchom N/a Ban Koum 2,570 Latsua N/a Don Sahong 66 Stung Treng 9,160 Sambor 19,034 TOTAL 88,325

30 Pak Beng Proposed dam at Pak Beng FSL = 345 masl MDL = 339 masl Area = Length = km

31 31 Luangprabang

32 Xayaboury Proposed dam at Xayaboury FSL = 275 masl MDL = 270 masl Area = 49 sq.km Extends 150km to Louangprabang

33 33 Pakchom Sankham Paklay

34 Cambodia 1. Stung Treng 2. Sambor Flatter topography Reservoirs extend beyond the river channel

35 Characteristics and opportunities for the SEA to held shape development 35 The SEA is not being conducted as a formal requirement within a legal framework -- but it is supported by the MRC member countries It is not addressing an existing plan or one in preparation but a group of feasible project proposals for the same river The projects are all in the planning stages so, in principle remain open to influence Most of the projects have not been subject to EIAs or any form of cumulative impact assessment so those more specific studies are open to influence A broad development plan for the LMB (the BDP) is under preparation so is open to influence National power development plans are under review and preparation therefore open to influence The GMS energy road map and strategy is regularly reviewed and therefore open to influence

36 36 SEA approach The main steps in the SEA of mainstream hydropower

37 Steps in the SEA Scoping 1. Identification of key issues for development of the river basin 2. Scoping of key issues to define the strategic issues of concern 3. Defining the sustainability objectives for the SEA 2. Baseline assessment and trend analysis 1. Gathering of the evidence base in each country 2. Analysis of past trends and current situation in the key development issues

38 Steps in the SEA Risk (impact) assessment 1. Defining the scenarios to be assessed Without hydropower development With hydropower development 2. Defining future trends in the key issues under each scenario 3. Assessing the combined/cumulative effects of future trends in the key issues under each scenario 4. Valuation of risks and development options 4. Avoidance, enhancement and mitigation 1. Identifying avoidance, enhancement and mitigation measures

39 1. SEA scoping phase 39 The SEA scoping phase is to establish: Temporal and spatial boundaries Institutional and planning context Issue coverage The nature and extent of stakeholder participation Identification of a limited number of key strategic issues

40 1. Scoping Regional baseline assessment workshop Baseline Assessment 3. Impact Assessment

41 The SEA process for mainstream developments 41DEVELOPMENT SEA STAGES CONSULATION PLANNING STEPS MOUs Prefeasibility studies IEE process Feasibility studies EIA process Project development agreement s (PDA and PPA) Inception Report Trend analysis and additional study reports Initial Draft SEA Final Draft SEA Final SEA Report Scoping (May to July): SEA objectives, baseline assessment, sustainability objectives, key issues definition & Additional studies Baseline Assessment & Trend Analysis (July to Sept): Analysis of past trends and current situation in the key development issues Opportunities and Risk Assessment (Oct to Dec): future trend analysis (with & without Hydropower), Assessing the combined effects on future trends in the key issues, Valuation of risks and development options Avoidance, enhancement and mitigation (Dec to March) Identifying avoidance, enhancement and mitigation measures Communications & Consultation Plans National Scoping Workshops & Capacity Building Sessions Regional Scoping Workshop Regional Baseline Assessment Workshop & Cambodian Field Mission Regional Impacts Assessment Workshop & Thailand Field Mission Regional Multi-stakeholder Workshop Regional Mitigation Workshop & Vietnam Field Mission

42 SCOPING BASELINE ASSESSMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT MITIGATION DATE MEETING LOCATION SEA STAGE NATIONAL CONSULTATIONS Viet Nam Scoping Phase JUNE JULY JUNE VN Government line agency meetings July Ha Noi JULY 02 VN National Workshop Ha Noi Lao PDR JULY 06- LAO Government line agency meetings 07 Vientiane LAO National Workshop 09 LAO Civil Society meeting LAO Field Mission: Xayabouly, Luang Prabang Cambodia JULY 14- KH Government line agency meetings Phnom 15 Penh KH National Workshop 17 KH Civil Society meeting KH Field Mission Stung Treng, Sambor Thailand AUG 4-5 THAI Government line agency meetings Bangkok 6-7 THAI National Workshop REGIONAL CONSULTATIONS Cambodia Baseline Assessment Phase AUG OCT SEPT Cambodian Government Department Meetings Phnom Penh Regional Baseline Assessment Workshop Thailand Impacts Assessment Phase OCT DEC DEC 3-4 Thai Government Department Meetings Bangkok 5-6 Thai Field Mission: Ban Koum Ban Koum 7-8 Regional Impacts Assessment Workshop Bangkok Lao PDR DEC 15 Regional Multistakeholder Workshop Vientiane Lao Regional Field Mission: Luong Prabang Viet Nam Avoidance, Enhancement & Mitigation Assessment Phase JAN - MAR JAN 4 Vietnamese Government Department Meetings 5-6 Regional Mitigation Workshop Can Tho Viet Nam Field Mission Mekong Delta

43 43 Initial review of issues MRC SEA on Mekong mainstream hydropower

44 Initial scoping phase activities 44 In April to May initial scoping involved: 1. Initial consultations on scope and key strategic issues 2. Surveying baseline data availability and gap analysis on legal and policy framework 3. Scoping MRC inputs to the SEA 4. Proposing approaches to communication and stakeholder involvement 5. Preparing an issues background paper

45 MRC Mandate 45 Development on the Mekong mainstream is the sovereign decision of the individual governments within the framework of the Mekong Agreement (1995) National decisions are subject to National planning & regulatory processes All riparian nations require EIAs of projects Vietnam requires SEAs of plans Some decisions require prior notification under the MRC Prior Notification, Prior Consultation Agreement (PNPCA) MRC has a role in initiating and facilitating discussions among Member Countries

46 Regional Issues Transboundary decision making processes 2. Existing national capacities to manage the projects 3. Cumulative effects of many projects 4. s ecology and resource values 5. Uncertainty of power demand 6. Alternative generation sources

47 1. Decision making processes New tools are needed to deal with transboundary impacts: What is the role & scope of MRC processes What is the extent of transboundary influence over national decision making 2. Mainstream dams present a significant test to the effectiveness of: MRC process of prior notification MRC influence on decision-making systems

48 2. Existing national capacities National capacity and regulatory framework for managing complex hydro projects needs to be stronger, eg implementation of social and environmental assessment and mitigation Coordination and integration of multiple dam operations 2. In this context, particularly important that SEA : Supports national planning processes, Effectively involves regulatory authorities

49 3. Cumulative effects All countries concerned about cumulative effects of several dams in cascades 2. Present process of feasibility studies & impact assessment does not account for cumulative impacts This view was shared by some of the regulatory authorities 3. Need for the SEA to provide a clear, transparent evidence-based assessment of these potential cumulative impacts

50 4. s ecology and resource 50 values 1. Acknowledged by all as important, especially: fish habitats, stocks and migration livelihoods of fish-dependent communities 2. Some worried that the focus on fisheries could result in other important social & environmental issues being neglected, eg: Nutrient & sediment flows Terrestrial ecosystems including agriculture bank and bed erosion

51 5. Power demand Area of great uncertainty in the short-medium term 2. Important consideration for financial viability of dams and investment returns 3. Need a comprehensive & credible future regional power demand projection for the SEA

52 6. Alternative generation sources Alternative power generation needs comprehensive assessment consensus on this point amongst government & civilsociety 2. No consensus on whether or not alternative sources could replace mainstream power Can the SEA provide some clarity on this issue? Is it within the scope of the assessment?

53 Regional summary (1) 53 Hydropower is a complex development with a wide range of issues considered to be strategically significant for the LMB 1. Mainstream Mekong dam construction is the: i. most significant issue facing the river basin in ii. contemporary times most challenging issue that MRC needs to address for the foreseeable future need to get it right because of the irreversible nature of dam impacts 2. Wide range of issues are considered to be of strategic significance

54 Regional summary (2) Strong emphasis given by all countries on: impacts on affected livelihoods likely ecosystems changes 2. The need for better analysis acceptance of the need for a process like the SEA 3. Need to effectively integrate social & environmental concerns into hydropower planning

55 National issues 55 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

56 CAMBODIA: National context 56 Both a potential beneficiary and where impacts are likely to be significant key issues are seen as complex trade-offs Wide-scale interest in the SEA need broad stakeholder participation throughout the SEA Government in principle favours the dams in Cambodian territory provided adequate safeguards

57 CAMBODIA: National concerns Fisheries 2. flows 3. Sedimentation & erosion 4. Impacts on the Tonle Sap system especially reversal of flow and fisheries 5. Impacts on livelihoods of riverine communities

58 LAO PDR: National concerns National development & foreign exchange earnings, with few other national alternatives Questions how reliable hydro foreign exchange earnings will be in the long run 2. Internal market and electrification of Lao not a driver of mainstream hydropower 3. Regulatory capacity (e.g. ability to implement ESIA regulation and manage projects) 4. Social & environmental impacts, but a general feeling that these could be adequately mitigated if a dams are financially feasible

59 THAILAND: National concerns Dominant issue: possible impacts on riverine communities: Accelerated erosion Changes to sedimentation regime Habitat changes/loss Diminished ecological resource availability Changes to water quality & availability 2. Thai government & civil-society groups: strong concerns for wider environmental impacts, including upstream/downstream of Thailand 3. Thai national power demand & future energy security seen as of little relevance because: i. Future power demands have been significantly over-estimated, and ii. Mainstream dams will only play a minor role in meeting demand projections

60 VIETNAM: National context 60 Government and civil society - Very strong concerns over mainstream dam development General feeling that Vietnam will not benefit and may suffer the costs of mainstream dams Overwhelmingly emphasise basin-wide environmental and resource impacts of mainstream dam development

61 VIETNAM: National concerns 61 Mekong delta already experiencing multiple stresses, concerns related to: 1. flow regime 2. sediment & nutrient flows 3. Fish migration patterns 4. Biodiversity 5. Extent & severity of saline intrusion (surface & groundwater) 6. Increasing uncertainty of climate change impacts 7. Potential neglect of the Delta 8. Want specific & detailed analysis of the impacts of mainstream dams on the delta 9. Transboundary decision making process considered a key strategic issue