Energy Futures for India. Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Dept of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay

Transcription

1 Energy Futures for India Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Dept of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay India-UK Technology Foresight Workshop New Delhi, March 19-21, 2013

2 India and UK (Selected Indicators for 2010) Population 1171 million 62.2 million GDP (PPP) 3763 Billion 2005 US$ 2021 Billion 2005 US$ (3213 $/person) (32491 $/person) Primary Energy 29.0 EJ 8.5 EJ Energy/person 24.7 GJ/person/year 136 GJ/person/year Electricity/person 644kWh/capita/year 5740 kwh/capita/year CO2 emissions Per person Per GDP 1626 Million tonnes 484 Million tonnes 1.39 tonnes /capita/year 7.78 tonnes /capita/year 0.43g /US$ ppp 0.24 kg /US$ ppp 2 Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2012

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5 Approaches to Energy Futures Exploratory/ Extrapolative Integrated Energy Policy Committee National Energy Road Map (PSA) Aggregate modelling- IIMA/ TERI/ IRADE Discrete Scenarios - CSE, New Delhi, 2010 Greenpeace- Energy Revolution Normative DEFENDUS (Reddy 1990s) 5

6 Gaps/ Issues/ Technology Foresight Development pathways Industry, Agriculture, Services Optimisation models vswhat if Scenarios? Projections- Numbers or Insights? Technology roadmaps typically qualitative based on expert opinion segmented- sectoral Equity and Access Efficiency/ Demand Side Management Low Carbon as a goal? Energy Security 6

7 Electrification Status different states Source: ckinetics analytics, Rural Electrification Corp, NSSO Source: S Khazanchi, ETV

8 Equity Not researched adequately Implications not understood Low carbon pathways increase equity? Low carbon pathways decrease equity? Mutually independent? Trade-offs? Synergies Win-Win? Budget Constraints? Climate as a Co-benefit for Equitable Development pathways 8

9 India Trends CAGR (%) Population (million) GDP ( PPP Billion 2005 US $ ) Energy use (EJ) Electricity use (Billion units) Oil imports (million tonnes) Share of energy imports 8% ~30% - Installed power generation capacity 46, , % of households un electrified Not known 40 - Renewable power installed capacity (excl large hydro) 0 17,297 MW - Share of Nuclear Generation 2.7% 3.5% - 9

10 Sectoral Shares of GDP in 1985 and % Industry 42.7% Services 31.2% Agriculture 55.19% Services 17.7% Agriculture 27.1% Industry 10

11 Time Series Trends 25 CAGR=3% CAGR=5% CAGR=5.5% CAGR=7% Energy Intensity of GDP (toe/10000$) Emissions Intensity of GDP (tco2/10000$) Emissions Intensity of Energy (tco2/toe)

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13 [1 Sectoral Shares in India s GDP Industry 23% 25% 26% 25% 27% 27% Services 36% 39% 44% 51% 57% 59% Agriculture 42% 36% 30% 23% 16% 13.9% 13

14 Future Scenarios 2030 (mix changing) Industry Services Agriculture Scenario I Scenario-II India % 57% 16% Sectoral contributions remain at current ratios till % 57% 16% Average sectoral growth rates remain the same as the last 5 years 20% 72% 8% 14 Scenario-III Increase in the contribution of Industry by 2030 (China) 47% 42% 11%

15 Emission Intensity of GDP Change in Emissions Intensity of GDP Including Energy Intensity trend Scenario-I Scenario-II Scenario-III 0% -24% 62% -24% -46% 14% 15

16 Primary Energy Mix 100% 80% Coal 60% Oil and Gas 40% 20% Renewables and Nuclear 16

17 Power Generation Supply mix 100% 80% Thermal 60% Nuclear 40% 20% % Renewables (incl Hydro) 0

18 Frozen Efficiency Scenarios for % (Moderate) 8% (High) % (Low) Population (in billions) GDP (in US 2005 Billion PPP) GDP/ capita Primary Energy (in EJ) Primary Energy per capita (in GJ)

19 Elect. int/gdp Electricity Intensity of GDP Trend Year 19

20 Business as Usual Scenarios for % (Low) 6.4% (Moderate) 8% (High) Population (in billions) GDP (in US 2005 Billion PPP) GDP/ capita Primary Energy (in EJ) Primary Energy per capita (in GJ) Electricity Supply (in billion units) Electricity Supply (in units/ capita)

21 Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate) - Electricity- High Coal (A) Supply Scenario (BAU) - 2% Projections for 2035 Coal Natural Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewab les Total % Electricity Supply Share 66% 12% 2% 3% 11% 6% 100% Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kwh) Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26% Installed Capacity (in GW)

22 Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate)- Electricity- High Renewables (B) Supply Scenario Green (Coal Low, Renewables High) - 2% Natural Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewab les Projections for 2035 Coal Total % Electricity Supply Share 50% 12% 2% 3% 11% 22% 100% Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kwh) Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26% Installed Capacity (in GW)

23 Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate)- Electricity- High Nuclear (C) Supply Scenario Green (Coal Low, Nuclear High, Renewables Moderately High ) Natural Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewab les Projections for 2035 Coal Total % Electricity Supply Share 40% 12% 2% 13% 11% 22% 100% Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kwh) Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26% Installed Capacity (in GW)

24 Power Generation Supply mix 80% A B C Thermal 60% Nuclear 40% 20% % Renewables (incl Hydro)

25 India Annual CO2 Emissions SC SC % % 8%

26 Renewable Share in Power Renewable Installed Capacity Renewable Generation Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity 26

27 Installed Capacity (MW) Potential = MW Potential = 45000MW Year Diffusion Curves for wind energy 27

28 Installed Capacity (MW) Diffusion curve Upper limit of uncertainity Lower limit of uncertainity Potential = MW Year Diffusion Curves for wind energy

29 Installed Capacity (MW) Potential = W Diffusion curve Upper limit of uncertainity Lower limit of uncertainity Year Diffusion Curves for wind energy

30 No. of house holds: 29 Connected load : 1.4 kw 5 kwp Solar PV power plant at Rajmachi Village, Maharashtra 30 Source: Manoj and Banerjee, 2010

31 Power(Watts) and Voltage (Volts) Measurements VOLTAGE POWER :00 2:24 4:48 7:12 9:36 12:00 14:24 16:48 19:12 21:36 0:00 Time (hrs) 31

32 Zero Energy Buildings BbB (Germany/Sweden) 32 ECBC, Teri GRIHA Building rating schemes Dependent on climatic zone, share of AC space Bayer Innovation Centre Noida Zero Emissions Building 45 kwh/m2/year, solar PV

33 Building Primary Energy (EJ/yr) 70.0 Building Stock (x10 9 sqm) "Today" 2010 A. Business as Usual B. Green C. Sustainable D. Sustainable & Equitable E. Sustainable, Equitable and Urban 0.0 Embodied Energy Operating Energy Building Stock 33 Source: Sanjay Prakash, ETV, 2035

34 34 Source: A. Sarkar, ETV 2035

35 HDI vs Primary Energy supply 35 Source: Steinberger, Roberts, 2009

36 HDI and Electricity use 36 Source: Pasternak, 2000

37 Summary Need for Overall modelling approaches/ frameworks that provide insights into choices and trade-offs Structure of economy important, Development pathways, Equity impacts need for research Micro- Macro Linkages Energy Technology Vision 2035 Expert Opinion- Brainstorming ongoing Need for better Technology foresight methods 37

38 References ckinetics analytics, Rural Electrification Corp, NSSO IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2012 United Nations, World Population Prospects (2009) A.D.Pasternak, Global Energy Futures andhuman Development: A Framework for Analysis, 2000,UCRL-ID , USDOE Julia K. Steinberger, J. Timmons Roberts(2009) Across a Moving Threshold: energy, carbon and the efficiency of meeting global human development needs, Vienna Foresight Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Project (2008). Final Project Report.The Government Office for Science, London. Pillai and Banerjee, 2009: Renewable energy in India: Status and potential, Energy, (34)8, , August Manoj and Banerjee, 2010: Analysis of isolated power systems for village electrification, Energy for Sustainable Development, (14)3, , September 2010 TIFAC Energy Technology Vision 2035 draft in progress 38

39 End- Note Alice :I was wondering if you could help me find my way. Cheshire Cat: Well, that depends where you want to go. Alice: It really doesn't matter, as long as... Cheshire Cat: Then it really doesn't matter which way you go. If you don't know where your going, then any road will get you there. Source: Lewis Carroll: Alice In Wonderland 39

40 Acknowledgment TIFAC ETV 2035 Advisory Group Members: Mr. S P Dharne - Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), Mumbai Dr. Naushad Forbes - Chairman & Managing Director, Forbes Marshall, Pune Dr. Anuradda Ganesh Professor, IIT Bombay Dr. Gautam Goswami / Shri. Manish Kumar - Director, TIFAC, New Delhi Dr. Hari Shankar Jain - Executive Director, (R&D), BHEL, Hyderabad Dr. Ajit K. Kolar Professor, IIT Madras, Chennai Dr. Arun Kumar / Shri. Sanjay Khazanchi - President, Dev Alternatives Shri. Sanjay Prakash Director, SHiFt: Studio for Habitat Futures Dr.. Ashvini Kumar - Director, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, New Delhi + Additional Contributors Tejal Kanitkar Jay Dhariwal Balkrishna Surve 35 rangan@iitb.ac.in Thank you