Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation of Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts

Transcription

1 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation of Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts Guy Félio, Ph.D., P.Eng., FCSCE Practice Lead, Special Projects - Engineering and Public Policy Engineers Canada Canadian Network of Asset Managers Vancouver May 11-14, 2015 Who is Engineers Canada? STRUCTURE National organization for the engineering profession in Canada - Over 280,000 professional engineers in Canada Members - 12 constituent associations that regulate the practice of engineering FUNCTIONS Common approaches for professional qualifications, professional practice and ethical conduct Accredits undergraduate engineering programs that meet criteria in Canada 271 programs in 43 universities National and international voice of the profession Climate change work since of 37 1

2 Context Infrastructure Vulnerability to Extreme Weather 3 of X 4 of 37 2

3 5 of 37 6 of 37 3

4 7 of 37 Interdependencies 8 of 37 4

5 New stream crossing at Finch Ave. 9 of of 37 5

6 Why Address Infrastructure Risks? Minimize service disruptions Protect people, property and the environment Optimize service Manage lifecycle Manage operations Avoid surprises Reduce/avoid costs First step in planning adaptation 11 of 37 Potential Impacts from Increasing Climate/Weather Extremes Source: Environment Canada 12 of 37 6

7 The Past IS NOT the Future Current Trend Un-quantified Risk The Past is the Future 13 of 37 Small Increases Lead to Escalating Infrastructure Damage 14 of 37 7

8 Capacity Load 28/04/2015 How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure? Failure Design Capacity Safety Factor Impact of age on structure Impact of unforeseen weathering Design Load Change of use over time e.g. population growth Severe climate event 15 of of 37 8

9 Changing Climate and Professional Liability? Engineers, under their professional code of ethics, need to be involved in addressing the impacts of changing climate on infrastructure design and operations because it affects public safety and public interest. Engineers Canada Website Why is Climate Change Important to Engineers? There is a real risk that infrastructure stakeholders could be liable to people who suffer personal injury or property damage caused by infrastructure that has been adversely affected by climate change. Patricia Koval LLP in PEO s Engineering Dimensions, Jan/Feb of 37 Some Tools to Address Future Climate Challenges Not an exhaustive list 18 of X 9

10 ICLEI Building Adaptive and Resilient Communities (BARC 19 of 37 Insurance Bureau of Canada - MRAT 20 of 37 10

11 Atlantic Canada Adaptation Solutions 7 Steps to Assess Climate Vulnerability in Your Community: workbook Example: for Newfoundland, includes information on: Climate (current, future predictions) as well as expected trends Expected impacts from precipitation (intensity, frequency), temperature (average, extremes) and sea-level rise. 21 of 37 Future Climate and Infrastructure Engineering What is Engineers Canada is doing? 22 of X 11

12 Duties and Responsibilities of the Profession Professional engineers are responsible for designing and building core public infrastructure projects across Canada. As such, they are uniquely qualified to ensure that Canada s infrastructure can withstand the challenges created by climate change. 23 of 37 Engineers Canada Initiatives PIEVC Protocol (since 2008) Education course syllabus (2013) Training: more than 50 workshops across Canada since 2008 Model Guideline: Principles of CC Adaptation for Professional Engineers (2014) Infrastructure Resiliency Certification (expected launch early 2016) 24 of 37 12

13 Education, Guidelines and Certification 25 of X Climate Change Syllabus (2013) Title: A COURSE IN CLIMATE CHANGE FOR PROFESSIONAL ENGINEERS AND GEOSCIENTISTS Some expected learning outcomes: Apply climate change assessment and management principles Undertake a climate change risk assessment; Be able to effectively communicate a climate strategy to decision-makers. The course combines both theoretical and applied materials. Emphasis is placed upon case study discussion. Minimum of 36 standard lecture hours with associated inclass exercises, assignments, papers, and presentations. 26 of 37 13

14 of 37 Infrastructure Resiliency Certification Development of a certification program for engineers that recognizes, once certified, their competencies in planning, designing and managing resilient infrastructure assets and their components in the face of extreme weather. (To be launched in early 2016) In addition to and outside of licensure Builds on the experience and success of the development and deployment of the PIEVC Protocol. Initially targeted at climate risks (current and future) In the future: address natural, intentional/deliberate and accident/technical failure threats. 28 of 37 14

15 PIEVC Engineering Protocol 29 of X Guiding Principles The climate is changing Climate change threatens the ability of engineers to safely and effectively design resilient infrastructure to meet the needs of Canadians Design, operation and maintenance practices must adapt Growing liability concerns for profession Climate change engineering vulnerability assessment contributes to adaptation process Updated and improved codes, standards and practices needed 30 of 37 15

16 Consequence 28/04/2015 PIEVC Engineering Protocol: a risk screening tool Five step evaluation process A tool derived from standard risk management methodologies Intended for use by qualified engineering professionals Requires contributions from those with pertinent local knowledge and experience Focused on the principles of vulnerability and resiliency 31 of 37 Risk Assessment Matrix Probability of Occurrence 32 of 37 16

17 5 Steps plus an Optional TBL Module 33 of 37 Applied to 40+ Projects and Counting Water resources systems Storm & waste water systems Roads & bridges Buildings Transportation infrastructure Energy Infrastructure 34 of 37 17

18 In Conclusion 35 of X Building infrastructure today without considering future climate impacts is incorporating vulnerabilities that will later cause service disruptions and failures thus increasing costs to government, the private sector and users. 36 of 37 18

19 Thank you For more information: engineerscanada.ca 19