2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Transcription

1 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 National Industrial Transportation League William Landuyt Feb 1, 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 216. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1

2 The energy equation People living standards energy needs 2 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

3 Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 215 Level Percent 1% 75% 5% 25% % x GDP +25% demand +1.8 billion people +1% CO 2 emissions -45% CO 2 intensity 3 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

4 Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living Economics and policies impact the energy mix Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards O i l remains the world s primary fuel through 24 N atural gas grows more than any other energy source Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty 4 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

5 Developing Nations Lead Population Growth Global Population Billion People 1 8 Non-OECD OECD ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

6 Non-OECD Leads Economic Growth World GDP Trillion 21$ Growth Trillion 21$ % AAGR 8 Non-OECD 1.9% AAGR Africa Other AP 4 India 4 OECD Europe China 2 United States OECD Non-OECD 6 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

7 Demand Growth From Developing Nations 12 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Demand without Efficiency Growth Quadrillion BTUs 1 Energy Savings Americas 16 8 Mid East Africa 12 6 Non-OECD Other AP 8 4 Demand India 2 OECD China Non-OECD 7 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

8 Economics and policies impact the energy mix. 8

9 CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Other Renewables 4 8% Wind & Solar Nuclear 3 Non-OECD Coal 6% 2 4% Gas China 2% Oil 1 OECD % U.S ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

10 Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. 1

11 Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE Light Duty Chem Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 11 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

12 Transportation Demand Driven by Commerce Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

13 Transportation Demand Varies by Region/Sector By Region/Sector MBDOE Commercial Light Duty 15 1 Asia Pacific North America Europe Latin America Russia/ Caspian Africa Middle East 13 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

14 Commercial Transportation Grows in All Aspects Growth MBDOE 9 6 ROW Africa AP NonOECD OECD 3 Heavy Duty Marine Air Rail 14 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

15 Personal Mobility Increases Penetration Vehicles Per Thousand People U.S. Car Sales by Class Percent 6 4 1% % Small 4 5% Mid-size 2 Motorcycles Large 25% Vans SUVs Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India Cars Pick-ups % ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

16 Consumer Preference and Policy Determine Fleet Mix Fleet by Type Million Cars Light Duty Vehicle Demand MBDOE Vehicle Miles Traveled Trillion Miles 2 15 Gasoline Diesel Natural Gas & LPG Full Hybrid Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 ' ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

17 Liquids Supply Highlights Technology Gains By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other Non-OPEC Russia North America 2 4 OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC Tight Oil NGLs Deepwater Oil Sands Biofuels Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 17 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

18 All Scenarios Require Ongoing Development Liquids Supply/Demand MBDOE 12 1 Other NGLs 8 Tight Oil 6 4 Natural decline in the absence of further investment Deepwater Conventional Crude and Condensate New investment in supply required to offset natural decline and meet growing demand *Based on IEA sources; excludes biofuels 18 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

19 Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 19

20 Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 2 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

21 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Electricity Net Delivered by Type Thousand TWh China Other Renewables 6 4 Other Asia Pacific United States Europe 2 Wind & Solar Nuclear Gas 2 India 1 Coal Oil 21 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

22 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 22

23 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Intensity Index CO 2 / Energy.6 Energy / GDP.4 CO 2 / GDP ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

24 Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 24 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy

25 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app 25