Communicating and Defining Drought in a way that Matters

Transcription

1 Communicating and Defining Drought in a way that Matters Case study in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin Chris Martinez Agricultural and Biological Engineering University of Florida

2 Outline Motivation Purpose People Process Progress (Better days)

3 Motivation and droughts linked, in part, to La Niña events. Both drought events were forecasted many months in advance. Little, if any, actions were taken in advance New to Being Dry, the South Struggles to Adapt Erik S. Lesser for The New York Times Val Perry of the Lake Lanier Association walking from his dock last week. The governor of Georgia wants the Army Corps of Engineers to reduce the amount of water it releases from the lake. By SHAILA DEWAN and BRENDA GOODMAN Published: October 23, 2007 Correction Appended ATLANTA, Oct. 22 For more than five months, the lake that provides drinking water to almost five million people here has been draining away in a withering drought. Sandy beaches have expanded into flats of orange mud. Tree stumps not seen in half a century have resurfaced. Scientists have warned of impending disaster. TWITTER LINKEDIN PRINT SINGLE PAGE REPRINTS SHARE Mo T Si MO E- Enlarge This Image And life, for the most part, has gone on just as before. The response to the worst drought on record in the Southeast has unfolded in ultra-slow motion. All summer, more than a year after the drought began, fountains sprayed and football fields were watered, prisoners got two showers a day and Coca-Cola s bottling plants chugged along at full strength. On an 81-degree day this month, an outdoor theme park began to manufacture what was intended to be a 1.2-million-gallon mountain of snow. G 8 10

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5 Purpose No One-size-fits-all definition of drought Hydrology and landuse varies greatly across the ACF basin Are Hydrologists from Venus and Climatologists from Mars? Goal: provide actionable, stakeholder-driven drought information

6 Hydrologists are from Venus Watershed to Local Scale Deterministic High Skill Climatologists are from Mars Continental to Global Scale Probabilistic Low Skill How to cultivate skepticism while combating pessimism? Pagano and Garen, 2005

7 Diverse Groups Georgia Atlanta Flint agriculture Hydropower Recreation Alabama Economic growth Energy Florida Endangered & threatened species Shellfish

8 Upper Chattahoochee Middle Chattahoochee & Flint Apalachicola River & Bay The good news?: There are issues people actually agree upon

9 What do the stakeholders think about? Courtesy L. Darby NIDIS/NOAA

10 Process Technical: How is drought quantified? Drought can be defined using one of more components of a water balance Stakeholder: What is most meaningful to the end-user? Likely different depending on interests

11 Quantifying Drought A drought index is calculated using one or more variable Drought is relative Different calculation approaches give different results Rainfall Streamflow Combination Droughts

12 Current Drought Rainfall-based Indices Soil Moisture - based Streamflow - based

13 Process Technical: Quantify drought in different ways for each sub-basin 1. Reservoir levels 2. Streamflow 3. Groundwater recharge (model-based) 4. Soil moisture (model-based) 5. Combination (weighted) Stakeholder: Meetings with interested stakeholders in each sub-basin Rank and discuss definitions of drought based in past experience, which one(s) was right for you? Stakeholder defined weights in #5

14 Model-based Estimates National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) 1/8 degree resolution Remotely sensed and ground-based inputs Near real-time NASA:

15 Progress Letter of support written by ACFS for NOAA grant Grant not funded this year Presented concept at December 2011 ACFS meeting Informal one-on-one and group discussions at ACFS quarterly meetings Pilot testing approach

16 Current Drought Rainfall-based Indices Soil Moisture based (model) Streamflow based (model)

17 Moving Forward: Concerns/Potential Issues Getting the right people in the room Making sure everyone is heard Not letting a single person dominate

18 Anticipated Outcomes Increase understanding of stakeholders on drought products and forecasts New, custom definition(s) of drought specific to each sub-basin Further the conversation within ACFS

19 Questions? Rain Apr-June Temperature Apr-June