Climate change adaptation planning in Slovenia

Transcription

1 LIFE14 CAP/SI/ Climate change adaptation planning in Slovenia Barbara Simonič Ministrstvo za okolje in prostor Predstavitev pilotnega finančnega mehanizma NCFF 31. maj 2018, hotel Brdo

2 Climate change adaptation planning in Slovenia May 2018 Barbara Simonič Climate change unit

3 Triglav glacier 1959, 1975, 1990, 2003 Source Digitalna enciklopedija DEDI REPUBLIKA SLOVENIJA Climate change in Slovenia 1/2 Trends in the past project : temperature rose by 1,7 C in the period Extreme weather events are getting more frequent...

4 indeks (%) indeks (%) indeks (%) temp. odklon ( C) REPUBLIKA SLOVENIJA Climate change in Slovenia 2/2 trends : Air temperature: +0,33 C/10 yrs precipitation: 2 %/10 yrs Snow cover: 15 %/10 yrs Sun radiation: +2 %/10 yrs the most significant change : the average annual air T, which on average increased by 1.7 degrees Celsius Odklon temperature zraka leto Indeks višine padavin leto Indeks višine snega leto Indeks trajanja sončnega obsevanja available on the web portal Meteo.si leto

5 Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 by 2100 Average annual air temperature deviation in Slovenia in the period National Climate change scenarios Based on the new IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios, ensemble of 6 models from EURO- CORDEX for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 have been taken to assess the long term (until 2100) changes in climate variables; Work in Progress... The data for these new climate scenarios will be published in September Projected T changes till 2040 (left) and 2070 (right) Uncertainities Slovenian Environment Agency is using 6 regional models to better assess uncertainties related to forecasts as well as to better assess the interval of future changes

6 Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts Summer and winter Precipitation 0 PRELIMINARY - Projection of changes of 100-year flow (flow with a return period of 100 years - Q100) gives a slight increase in the west half of the country for the future period and a decrease in the Q100 in the eastern half of the country In winter the amount of precipitation is expected to increase and in summer decrease by 2070 the amount of precipitation will increase in the Eastern half of Slovenia at an annual level towards 2070 Impacts on agriculture and forestry sector have already been presented, while some other need to be addressed in the future (forest fires, avalanches, sea level )

7 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Preliminary expert bases from 2014 Economic impact Floods were assessed to be the biggest risk in Slovenia due to relatively frequent occurrence and high impact. In the last 25 years, major flood events in Slovenia caused about 2,100 million. Drought is the most common problem in Slovenian agriculture. The highest estimated drought damage in 2003 amounted to 130 million. (29% covered in state aid), F: 2,100 mio D: 130 mio /y increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods altered quality of water bodies and drinking water erosion and landslides in watercourses

8 Wider political and legal framework Adaptation policy-making process Paris agreement (2016), EU Energy Union Governance EU Adaptation Strategy (2013) scoreboard (2015/17) Agriculture adaptation strategy (2004) and AP ( ) Environment protection law 2, Climate fund (since 2014) Adaptation Scoreboard for Slovenia Main area of performance Key domain of relevance Definition Level of readiness No Definition Level of progress No. Definition Repl y Step I: Preparing the ground for adaptation 1 2 A central administration body is in charge of adaptation policy making and vertical and horizontal coordination arrangements are in place with other governmental bodies Stakeholders (e.g. interest groups, scientists and general public) are involved in the preparation of adaptation policies Good progress (G) Very good progress (V) 1a A central administration body officially in charge of adaptation policy making Yes 1b Horizontal (i.e. sectoral) coordination mechanisms exist within the governance system, with division of responsibilities 1c Vertical (i.e. across levels of administration) coordination mechanisms exist within the governance system No 2a A dedicated process is in place to facilitate stakeholders' involvement in the preparation of adaptation policies Yes 2b Transboundary cooperation is planned to address common challenges with relevant countries Yes Yes

9 2016 Strategic framework for climate change adaptation legal status of a strategy vision, purpose and goals for adaptation for all sectors, but not each one separately Vulnerability indicator for assessing progress 4 annexes, incl. terminology and int. comparison Vision By 2050 Slovenia should become a society adapted and resilient to climate change impacts and characterised by a high quality of life and a high degree of safety of life, while taking full advantage of the changed climate on the basis of sustainable development.

10 2016 Strategic framework for climate change adaptation General objective to reduce Slovenia s exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change impacts and increase the climate resilience and adaptive capacity of society. Adaptation as a process Indicator: the degree of Slovenia s vulnerability at the national and municipal levels

11 Strategic framework 2018 Status of implementation Mainstreaming 1. The effective coordination of the contents and processes of development and spatial planning, including taking account of capabilities for disaster risk management 2. Strengthened use of environmental impact assessment instruments Broader cooperation 1. Ensuring appropriate inter-ministerial cooperation 2. Proactive participation in European and international activities 3. Integration between the local and regional levels and the private sector 4. Looking for areas of common ground with other policies and actor Research and knowledge transfer 1. Providing climate services (producing longterm climate scenarios and regularly updating, upgrading and adapting the climate groundwork)!!! 2. Upgrading and linking databases and processes in support of decision-making 3. Establishing regular cooperation between researchers and decision-makers Education and training, awareness raising and communication 1. The analysis of the situation, the establishment of comprehensive monitoring and evaluation as well as implementation 2. Identification, exchange, dissemination and further development of good practices 3. Planning and conducting communication campaigns and working with the media

12 POPULATION THE ECONOMY MEASURES BY INDIVIDUAL SECTORS FIRE, FLOOD and DROUGHT RISK (municipal spatial planning data) DATA ON CHANGES IN CLIMATE VARIABLES (climate scenarios) INDIVIDUAL SECTORS POPULATION THE ECONOMY EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY REPUBLIKA SLOVENIJA Next steps Estimating impacts/risks and opportunities DEGREE OF VULNERABILITY of the state and municipalities to climate change Calculation of the vulnerability indicator Preparation of impact and vulnerability sector assessments (by ARSO&MOP) Groundwork for AP, development plans Strenghtening SEA/EIA procedures Interdepartmental WG meetings Local level coordination point Action plan of measures Climate change web portal ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

13 Project ideas Extreme weather events Gradual changes in climate variability and their impacts (e.g. the length of the growing season vs. frost) on regions and sectors Good practice examples: projects such as LIFE ViVaCCAdapt, DriDanube,

14 More information : - Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning (MOP) - Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO) Good practices portal: Slovenia reduces CO2

15 Thank you for your attention!