Adaptation to Coastal Hazard Risks in Queensland. Greg Fisk, BMT WBM Shannon McGuire, Buckley Vann Queensland PIA How To Seminar 3 May 2016

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1 Adaptation to Coastal Hazard Risks in Queensland Greg Fisk, BMT WBM Shannon McGuire, Buckley Vann Queensland PIA How To Seminar 3 May 2016

2 Outline: Why planning for coastal climate change adaptation needs a new approach How does climate change fit into current QLD coastal planning framework? Role of local government and key drivers for adaptation action Need for a strategic and integrated response to coastal adaptation Coastal hazards and applying risk based assessment Toolkit for treating coastal hazards Site based adaptation strategies for development Take home messages Courier Mail

3 Understanding the problem of coastal climate change adaptation A wicked and complex problem Temporal and spatial incongruity of impacts Need to understand risk and consequences over time (immediate & future) eg: 2016, 2031, 2055 and 2080 etc Uncertainty inherent with coastal hazards Risk assessment is subjective judgement decisions to assign likelihood & consequence Effective management requires a risk based approach over the short, medium & long term Need to ensure actions implemented today don t limit future sensible actions Static planning scheme dealing with a dynamic issue and uncertainty!!!

4 A conundrum, or an opportunity for a new approach?

5 What does this mean for planners? Can t take a business as usual approach to planning for coastal climate change adaptation. A static and non-adaptive planning scheme, won t work for a dynamic issue needing a flexible and adaptive management response. We need to accept uncertainty inherent with coastal hazards We need clear and steadfast policy direction, but still have flexibility in the future. We need to learn the language of risk and be risk managers. Best practice statutory planning for climate change adaptation requires a risk based approach to land use and development

6 Engineers and planners can be friends Climate change adaptation not just an engineering response, but they have a key role in determining risk and treatment options Requires integration of practice across all disciplines - engineering, planning, economic, social, ecological and financial. Planners need to lead the translation & bridge the gap across the science, engineering and community engagement outcomes to create meaningful policy and development outcomes.

7 Snapshot of current Queensland coastal policy framework

8 Snapshot of current mechanisms in Queensland coastal planning framework

9 Snapshot of current mechanisms in Queensland coastal planning framework Coastal Zone Defined by Coastal Act Coastal zone very large area Supports coastal environments important for: o coastal processes and resources o biodiversity o economic and social values o management of coastal hazards o scenic natural landscapes and views

10 Snapshot of current mechanisms in QLD Coastal Planning Framework Local Government Requirements (SPP) CMD is trigger area for SPP Interim DA Requirements Coastal Environment Jurisdiction limited to above HWM Applies to all MCU, ROL and OW in the CMD, where state interests not appropriately integrated in planning scheme State Government Requirements (SPReg and SDAP) Jurisdiction within CMD including below HWM Does not extend outside of CMD State has development assessment role for certain development in the CMD: subdivision; tidal works; operational works; building works (GFA> 1,000m 2 ); interfering with coastal dunes; disposing of dredge spoil; and interfering with quarry material SARA undertakes assessment in accordance with SDAP (Module 10) Coastal Management District Declared under Coastal Act Declared to protect coastal waters; coastal dunes and vegetation; coastal wetlands (tidal and freshwater); and tidal rivers and waterways Generally excludes dense urban areas CMD generally wider in undeveloped areas and narrower in developed areas Administrative definition of coast: triggers State DA role (SARA and SDAP); land surrender (ROL); coastal building lines; coastal protection and tidal works matters; and regulations for coastal management matters Coastal values/constraints in the CMD; all State coastal waters; erosion prone areas (but can extend beyond CMD); storm tide inundation areas (but can extend beyond CMD); coastal wetlands (freshwater and tidal); and coastal dunes and vegetation

11 Snapshot of current mechanisms in QLD Coastal Planning Framework Local Government Requirements (SPP) SPP includes mapping of coastal hazards erosion prone area spatially shows where state interest natural hazards apply for plan making and Interim DA Requirements Natural Hazards Local government does not have jurisdiction below HWM Local government requirements can extend outside of CMD to the extent the site is in a Coastal Hazard Area SPP Interim DA Requirements Natural Hazards applies to all MCU, ROL or OW on land in the coastal hazard erosion prone area (within and outside of CMD) where state interests not appropriately integrated in planning scheme SPP Interim DA Requirements Coastal Environment will also apply to all MCU, ROL or OW where the site is within the CMD, where not appropriately integrated in planning scheme State Government Requirements (SDAP) Where the site is in the CMD and also a coastal hazard area, SDAP (Module 10) includes assessment requirements Erosion Prone Area Statutory erosion prone areas declared under Coastal Act Erosion prone area is within the CMD and can extend beyond CMD boundary Area is scientifically determined

12 Snapshot of current mechanisms in QLD Coastal Planning Framework Storm Tide Inundation Area Storm tide inundation areas occur in the CMD and can extend beyond CMD boundary Area is scientifically determined Local Government Requirements (SPP) SPP mapping of coastal hazards storm tide inundation area identifies where state interest natural hazards applies for plan making and Interim DA Requirements Natural Hazards Local government does not have jurisdiction below HWM Local government requirements can extend outside of CMD to the extent the site is in a Coastal Hazard Area SPP Interim DA Requirements Natural Hazards applies to all MCU, ROL and OW on land in a coastal hazard storm tide inundation area (within and outside CMD), where State interests not appropriately integrated in planning scheme SPP Interim DA Requirements Coastal Environment will also apply to all MCU, ROL and OW where site is within the CMD, where not appropriately integrated in planning scheme State Government Requirements (SDAP) Where the site is in the CMD and also a coastal hazard area, SDAP (Module 10) includes assessment requirements

13 How does climate change fit into the current Queensland coastal planning framework? State s position changing on how or whether climate change should be addressed Statutory coastal hazard mapping re-instates SLR factors which affects spatial extent of coastal hazard areas. Currently a policy vacuum, no references to CC in mandatory parts of SPP Advisory references to climate variability Some wishy washy references to sea rise benchmarks in Technical Manual Mandatory fit for purpose risk assessment consistent with AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management No clear direction, but expect this to change as part of planning reform. Good opportunity!!!

14 Risk based approach to land use and development Best practice statutory planning for coastal climate change adaptation requires a risk based approach to land use and development Coastal hazard assessment and risk assessment provides foundation for a more sophisticated approach. Avoids the same shade of blue effect. A possible approach: numerical modelling accounts for multiple likelihoods (or frequencies) of events and their consequences including climate change factors; Identify subcategories of risk in hazard overlay area and Eg: Extreme Risk, High Risk, Medium Risk and Low Risk and different planning horizons. Graduate the policy response to the level of risk Ensure development provisions are appropriate and reasonable to the risk. But, is this the end of the story???

15 SPP requires planning for coastal hazards to be undertaken at 2 levels: 1. Planning scheme; and 2. Site level as part of the DA stage Limitations: Planning scheme limited to new development. Can t influence existing development; Planning scheme is an important delivery tool for adaptation action, but not enough. Effective action on coastal adaptation needs a broader and integrated response across 3 levels: 1. Whole of local government integrated response. 2. Planning scheme; and 3. Site level

16 The need for a Council led strategic and integrated response to coastal adaptation Benefits for Councils: Agreed vision to inform planning, programming, funding and budgeting priorities over short to long term. Business as usual Ensures site specific treatment aligns with bigger picture less ad hoc Stage & sequence actions over time & focus on priority risks using suite of delivery tools: Emergency response plans Asset management plan Community awareness and education Natural environment responses Monitoring Planning Scheme Long term financial sustainability do more with less. Plan ahead and budget for capital investment to deliver actions.

17 What might a strategic and fully integrated approach look like? A possible approach: Detailed natural hazard and risk assessments (multiple likelihoods of hazard + consequence of impact + CC subcategories of risk) Community engagement plan all stages of process Strategy for Coastal Adaptation or Resilience or similar corporate document providing overarching strategic direction and framework for coordinated response to inform: Corporate plan and operational plans Annual budgets and long term financial plans Planning scheme (risk based approach to land use and development + graduated response to level of risk) Emergency response planning Asset infrastructure management Other council programming, operations and services Adaptation Action Plan to stage actions to priority risks. Governance arrangements and processes to integrate considerations into decision making Training and staff capacity to deliver actions

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19 Drivers for Local Government action on coastal adaptation Purpose of today Makes good business sense to prioritise efforts on coastal climate change adaptation Not taking action to respond to expected risk of coastal hazards and future climate change has risks: Legislative and legal liability risks; Insurance risks; Reputational risks for region, city and at political level; Environmental quality and livability risks; Competitive advantage risks and economic prosperity; Long term financial risks

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21 Some take home messages Best practice planning for coastal climate change adaptation = risk based approach to land use and development Comprehensive and integrated whole of local government organisational response using full suite of delivery tools. Requires strategic planning at its best, beyond statutory processes. We need to speak the language of risk and be risk managers Understand risk and consequences over time based on hazard assessment and risk assessment. Identify subcategories of risk and graduate planning response to level of risk Planners have key role in translating and integrating science, engineering, planning, local knowledge and community feedback. Need many delivery tools planning scheme not enough Still require expert engineering assessment at site specific level Image courtesy of The Age (Vanishing Island Interactive web-article)

22 Coastal Hazards Terms and Terminology Hazards can take many forms both natural and man-made: Coastal Erosion and Recession (storm induced, exacerbated by structures) Storm Tide Inundation (barometric, wind, wave) Catchment flooding (especially coincident with storm tide inundation) Tsunami Areas potentially affected by hazards can be identified by maps, lines and spatial polygons.

23 Coastal Inundation (storm tide, flooding, tsunami) TEMPORARY IMPACTS Coastal Erosion and Shoreline Recession (sediment supply) PERMANENT IMPACTS

24 Vulnerability versus Risk What is the difference? Vulnerability of an area to a hazard is usually considered as a function of: the Exposure of the area to the hazard; the Sensitivity of the area to hazard; and taking into account the adaptive capacity to absorb the impact Vulnerability is generally a higher order assessment that can be undertaken over broad spatial scales Coastal Risk is defined as likelihood and consequence of a hazard where: Likelihood is the frequency that a coastal hazard event will occur Consequence is the relative impact (to an asset) from the hazard event Risk assessment generally works well at a site-scale; where greater information is available to define and measure these parameters

25 So what SLR projections should we adopt?

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27 Can I please just have just one line?????? Probability 2100 Almost Certain 2060 Likely Unlikely Immediate Immediate Hazard Line Immediate Hazard Line Rare 2060 Hazard Line 2100 Hazard Line 2100 Hazard Line Immediate Hazard Line 2060 Hazard Line 2060 Hazard Line 2100 Hazard Line

28 Why Risk Based Assessments? Considers uncertainty sea level rise, coastal processes, local geomorphology and expected beach response Framework for developing actions even when little data / high uncertainty Can focus finite resources towards those aspects / areas at greatest risk Process for incorporating improved data over time Monitor low risks, change in risk level over time Triggered approach do nothing / no regrets options now, harder decisions when trigger is reached ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines

29 The ISO Risk Process Communication and Consultation Stakeholder and Community Liaison Risk Assessment Establishing the context & objectives Risk Identification Coastal processes & hazards = risks Risk Analysis Consequence x Likelihood = Level of Risk Risk Evaluation What is a tolerable level of risk? Are there controls / mitigating actions in place? Risk Treatment Options Reduce the risk to a tolerable level Costs and benefits of measures Trigger levels for implementation Implement Management Strategies Monitoring and Review Are Performance Indicators being met? Has the level of risk changed over time? New risks?

30 Coastal Risk = likelihood Likelihood is the frequency that a coastal hazard event will occur It is: the part of the risk equation you can see depicted as a hazard line or a spatial polygon indicates a reasonable probability that an event will occur within a timeframe But does not necessarily mean there will be impacts!

31 Coastal Risk = consequence Consequence is the relative impact in response to the event - The so what factor Need to unpack the magnitude of impact what is it s severity, intensity, and duration Nature of the impact on the asset major/minor damage, loss of use (for a time), cost of repair versus replace, more frequent maintenance Can be considered both in terms of existing or proposed assets Different consequence scales can be developed depending on if it is a built, social or natural asset

32 Consequence Scale (.permanent or temporary impacts) Consequence Society / Community Environment Economy Catastrophic Major Moderate Minor Insignificant Widespread permanent impact to community s services, wellbeing, or culture (eg, > 50 % of community affected), or national loss, or no suitable alternative sites exist Major permanent or widespread medium term (somewhat reversible) disruption to community s services, wellbeing, or culture (eg up to 50 % of community affected), or regional loss, or Only a few suitable alternative sites exist Minor long term or major short term (mostly reversible) disruption to services, wellbeing, or culture of the community (eg, up to 25 % of community affected), or sub-regional loss, or Some suitable alternative sites exist Small to medium short term (reversible) disruption to services, wellbeing, finances, or culture of the community (eg, up to 10 % of community affected), or local loss, or many alternative sites exist Very small short term disruption to services, wellbeing, finances, or culture of the community (eg, up to 5 % of community affected), or neighbourhood loss, or numerous alternative sites exist Widespread, devastating / permanent impact (e.g. entire habitat destruction), or loss of all local representation of nationally important species (e.g. endangered species). Recovery unlikely. Widespread semi-permanent impact, or widespread pest / weed species proliferation, or semi-permanent loss of entire regionally important habitat. Recovery may take many years. Significant environmental changes isolated to a localised area, or loss of regionally important habitat in one localised area. Recovery may take several years. Environmental damage of a magnitude consistent with seasonal variability. Recovery may take one year. Minimal short term impact, recovery may take less than 6 months, or habitat affected with many alternative sites available. Damage to property, infrastructure, or local economy > $20 million* Damage to property, infrastructure, or local economy >$5 million - $20 million Damage to property, infrastructure, or local economy >$500,000** - $5 million Damage to property, infrastructure, or local economy >$50,000 -$500,000 Damage to property, infrastructure, or local economy >$50,000

33 Risk = Likelihood x Consequence CONSEQUENCE Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Almost Certain Low Medium High Extreme Extreme LIKELIHOOD Likely Low Medium High High Extreme Possible Low Medium Medium High Extreme Unlikely Low Low Medium High Extreme Rare Low Low Low Medium High

34 Risk Evaluation: What is the tolerance to the risk? Risk Level Action required Tolerance Extreme / High Eliminate or Reduce the risk Intolerable Medium Reduce the risk or accept the risk (provided residual risk level is understood) Tolerable Low Accept the risk Acceptable Once risk rating is established what is our tolerance? Acceptable risks no further action / investigation required Tolerable risks accept risk, or investigate further to reduce risks, once all intolerable risks are treated Intolerable Risks investigate further develop mitigation measures

35 Risk Treatment The Toolkit Existing development Protect seawalls and hard structures, nourishment (if long term benefits), enhancing dunes and levies Accommodate re-design, insurance, evacuation planning, maintain existing defenses Retreat relocate on the site, termed approval, acquire and abandon Proposed/future development - Fill, siting and planning setbacks, land surrender, refusal [Avoid] Building design and siting requirements (as far landward as practicable) to accommodate risk level [Accommodate] Allow for design life only, align with existing development, ignore and deal with later [Accept]

36 Decision Tree for Coastal Management Options Existing Development Future Development Protect Accommodate Retreat In Fill Greenfield Seawalls Beach nourishment Enhance dunes Breakwaters Groynes Levee banks Retrofit Redesign Evacuation Planning Insurance Maintenance of hard and soft protection structures P A R Relocate Item Abandon Acquire and release Compulsory Acquisition Termed Approval Avoid Prohibit/Refuse Fill to raise land Accommodate Siting Requirements Design Standards Evacuation Planning Termed approvals Accept Business as Usual Sacrificial/Abandon A A A

37 That s all fine but how does it work in Queensland?????

38 Coastal Hazard Areas in Queensland Erosion prone areas (50 year planning period) Areas prone to permanent inundation (2100) Storm tide hazard areas (2100) After a brief hiatus, all coastal hazard areas again take into account projected impacts of climate change by 2100: 1.SLR of 0.8 metres 2.Increase in cyclone intensity by 10%

39 Erosion Prone Areas 1. Defined width (buffer) from open coast usually measured from the toe of the frontal dune (nil at rocky outcrop) 2. The Erosion Prone Area Note circa Extends over coastal waters (HAT) Along tidal waterways - 40 m from MHWS or HAT whichever is the greater 10 m from top of approved revetment

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42 Storm Tide Hazard Area High Hazard Area areas that experience one (>1) metre or more of temporary inundation during a defined storm tide event Medium Hazard Area experiences less than one (<1) metre of temporary inundation during a defined storm tide event

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44 Risk Based Approach to Development Assessment

45 EHP Guidelines - 6 Step Process 1. Is site affected by coastal hazards? 2. Nature and extent of hazards on site? 3. What is impact of hazard on proposed development? 4. Identify potential mitigation measures 5. Assess viability/effectiveness of mitigation measures Reduce Likelihood or Consequence On site and offsite implications Environment, social and financial factors 6. Select and describe preferred mitigation measures 1. Risk Identification 2. Risk Likelihood 3. Risk Consequence 4. Risk Evaluation 5.Treatment Options 6. Implement Management Strategies

46 Examples from the Guideline: Siting and Location

47 Examples from the Guideline: Design

48 Common Questions at the Coal Face Can you just make it go away? effectively challenging the hazard lines Can t I just deal with this later? developing a site-based coastal hazard adaptation plan as part of development proposals

49 Challenging the Lines Calculation of the mapped erosion prone area is conservative and based on: a short-term erosion component from extreme storm events a long-term erosion component where gradual erosion is occurring commonly from channel migration or a sediment supply deficit a dune scarp component, where slumping of the scarp face occurs following erosion; erosion risk due to future sea level rise from climate change both by permanent inundation of land by tidal water and the morphological response of the coast to elevated water level a 40% safety factor.

50 From the EHP Website The erosion prone area plans are updated periodically as more detailed on-ground studies are incorporated into the mapping. Any dispute about the extent of the erosion prone area must be accompanied by a report from a suitably qualified person using the methodology outlined in the Coastal hazard technical guide

51 Challenging the Lines What s involved? There are opportunities to challenge one or more of the erosion prone area parameters based on: more accurate site data, survey and information; consistency with the findings of an approved Shoreline Erosion Management Plan; assessment of local topography and beach response (from historical aerial photos and local survey of dune height and stability); and more detailed assessment tools applied at the local scale (shoreline response modelling) The alignment and intensity of adjacent development is relevant but not a justification in its own right - the technical argument about the position of the lines needs to stand on its own A compelling and robust argument from suitably experienced practitioner that the risk from coastal hazard is lower than the mapped erosion prone area/storm tide area can provide a win/win

52 Site Based Adaptation Strategies In some cases the lines are fixed or else a part of the development is still in the hazard area But consequence is still relevant Can be addressed in part by urban design and development form (temporary and relocatable structures) and setting future trigger points for commitments to: Undertaking accommodation actions (dune revegetation or restoration following storm events) Installing protection structures (assuming land within the development has been set aside for this purpose) Physically re-locating development landward where a clear trigger point is reached

53 Triggers for Existing Development Trigger Point xx 20xx Time Period of Acceptable Risk Risk Approaching Unacceptability Unacceptable Impact/Consequence Has Occurred Implement No regrets actions now e.g. Retrofit / relocate when old assets need replacement Implement significant actions at trigger point, e.g. Engineering protection works (seawalls) Relocation, retrofit Assets at High Risks by 2060, 2100 No regrets actions now Identify trigger & preferred option to treat unacceptable impact. Implement if / when trigger is reached

54 Planning challenges with this approach In the hazard area, the proponent will need to be willing to commit to a long term strategy Potentially bind successors in title to implement actions (body corporate or similar) or try and hand over to local government like open space parkland Clarity in the approval to who is responsible for future works and funding Opens possibility of developer contributions or adaptation rate levies Need to look hard at tools such as termed approvals (Great Lakes Council in NSW) and hazard certifications on title (s.149 of the NSW P&A Act) And if climate change doesn t happen everybody still wins!

55 Coastal Hazards - Implementation Success Erosion prone areas State government through Beach Protection Authority and then 20 years of Environment Departments (DOE, DEH, EPA, DERM, DEHP) Local storm tide and flood studies Local Government Setting trigger points in development approvals for coastal protection works Sunshine Coast Council Major projects Coordinator-General for major infrastructure (ports, airports, resource projects) Master planned urban development Economic Development Queensland (ULDA, EDQ)

56 Continuing Challenges Application of coastal hazard policy to brownfield development what is our risk tolerance? Clouded by existing development already in hazard areas - aggrieved proponents when additional regulation applied on their development. Lack of information and expertise applied due to insufficient resourcing and financial constraints. Regulators are applying coastal hazard lines inflexibly and not allowing consideration of a bona fide assessment of the risks The regulatory system continues to split consideration of coastal hazards between the State (CMD only) and local government

57 Some Take Home Messages Simplicity in defining hazards (as a single line or polygon) is attractive, but misleading and can lead to sub-optimal outcomes On the other hand, detail (multiple lines) provides rigour, but can be difficult to practically interpret and implement Risk-based approach to planning and development assessment provides a mechanism for addressing this uncertainty in future coastal conditions and incorporation of more accurate local information and consideration Developing site based adaptation plans and strategies involves taking appropriate steps at appropriate times. This can avoid making significant investment prematurely but requires a commitment to long term management Risk based development assessment can deliver a win-win ; but requires shift in approach by decision makers and proponents toward collaborative solutions not win as much as you can.

58 Thank you