Hydrogen Delivery Pathways for Australia CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Collaboration Project

Transcription

1 2010 AAHE Hydrogen Workshop 11 Nov 2010 Melbourne Hydrogen Delivery Pathways for Australia CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Collaboration Project Attilio PIGNERI Technical Director Energy GreenCollar Climate Solutions (GCS)

2 About GreenCollar Climate Solutions (gcs) is a Sydney-based global strategic project management consultancy focused on environmental and energy markets Part of the GreenCollar Group

3 CSIRO-UoW collaboration project Completed 31 August 2009 Authors Attilio Pigneri (GCS), David Nolan (Bluescope Steel) Principal investigating agency: Department of Materials Engineering, University of Wollongong Funding agency: CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Objective: Consolidate a comprehensive knowledge framework on hydrogen delivery and support the establishment of a wideranging hydrogen delivery RD&D program in Australia

4 Project activities STREAM 1: Hydrogen fundamentals STREAM 2: Technology State of the art in hydrogen delivery technologies Safety and regulatory aspects of hydrogen delivery Key technical barriers and R&D needs STREAM 3: Policy and regulations Review of international RD&D activities on hydrogen delivery Codes and standards for hydrogen delivery STREAM 4: Economics Survey of costs and performances of delivery technologies Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways

5 Project outputs Main Report A Technology roadmap for Australia s hydrogen delivery infrastructure (207 pp) 5 Appendixes App.A - Near-term hydrogen generation technologies (39 pp) App.B - Cost survey data tables (17 pp) App.C - Techno-economic assessment framework (91 pp) App.D - Tier 1 models (195 pp) App.E - Tier 2 models (104 pp)

6 Focus on delivery: why? the essential component of any infrastructure an established delivery infrastructure, or the complex of physical and organizational channels through which a product or service are commercialized, is ipso facto the prerequisite for the existence of a market for that very product or service understand the challenges, and opportunities, associated with the establishment of a delivery infrastructure in Australia

7 Ch State of the art in hydrogen delivery technologies Hydrogen-energy delivery pathways

8 STREAM 1. Hydrogen fundamentals Ch.01 - Physical and thermodynamic properties Ch.02 - Processing for hydrogen delivery

9 STREAM 2. Technology Ch.03 - State of the art in hydrogen delivery technologies Ch.04 - Safety aspects of hydrogen delivery Ch.05 - Key technical barriers and R&D needs

10 Ch State of the art in hydrogen delivery technologies State of the Art review Hydrogen compression and liquefaction Systems and technologies for key delivery options Compressed gaseous hydrogen (CGH 2 ) truck, pipeline, rail/barge Liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) truck Hydrogen carriers Near-term hydrogen generation options Water electrolysis Reforming of methane and light hydrocarbons Recovery of industrial by-product hydrogen

11 Ch Key technical barriers and R&D needs Technical barriers and R&D needs Discuss technical barriers for the three families of delivery systems: compressed gaseous hydrogen (CGH 2 ) liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) carrier-based delivery Identify key research and development needs

12 STREAM 3. Policy and Regulations Ch.05 - Review of international RD&D activities on hydrogen delivery Ch.06 - Codes and standards for hydrogen delivery

13 Ch International RD&D activities Review of international RD&D activities A snapshot of the current panorama of International RD&D activities focusing on hydrogen delivery Includes the major integrated RD&D programs on hydrogen delivery, established by international agencies and national governments, with information on the history, levels of funding and organizations involved International agencies and organizations IPHE, IEA-HIA, ISO TC197, EIGA... Major National Integrated RD&D activities US, Japan, EU... Framework of analysis organised into 5 RD&D areas: systems and transition analysis; optimisation and upgrade of commercial hydrogen delivery technologies; research and development in breakthrough hydrogen delivery technologies; safety and regulatory systems (codes and standards); and demonstration activities.

14 Ch International RD&D activities Codes and standards Develop and consolidate an up-to-date registry of international standards relevant to hydrogen delivery applications general safety considerations and hydrogen sensing systems bulk hydrogen storage and delivery applications evaluation and specification of hydrogen compatibility of materials transportation and refuelling station applications

15 STREAM 4 - ECONOMICS Ch.07 - Survey of costs and performances of delivery technologies Ch.08 - Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways

16 Ch Costs and performances of delivery technologies Methodology Collect literature and industry data on hydrogen delivery technologies Treat each estimate as a genuine bid on the probable cost of hydrogen delivery technologies Convert to current money (2006) by using international producer price index (PPI,manufacturing) data from OECD Implicit technology learning modelling 0.2 step weight decrease for every five years allows to mitigate the excessive influence of original estimates referenced throughout literature Convert into AUD by using Power of Purchase Parity (PPP) data from OECD

17 Ch Costs and performances of delivery technologies Step-by-step methodology The development of capacity function estimates from the original cost estimates found in literature involves the following 4 steps of analysis: 1. original estimates are expressed in terms of normalized capacity metrics, 2. estimates for specific components/systems are organized into capacity classes, 3. original estimates are converted in 2007 Australian Dollars, 4. capacity function estimates are developed through regression analysis.

18 Ch Costs and performances of delivery technologies Sample cost curve: liquefaction plant

19 total installed cost, 2007 AUD per km Ch Costs and performances of delivery technologies Pipeline cost estimates 3,000,000 (Tzimas et al. 2007) (Yang and Ogden 2007) (H2A 2006) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 high-pressure transmission medium-pressure subtransmission low pressure distribution - urban low pressure distribution - rural

20 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Modelled pathways

21 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Key highlights Set of standalone Excel spreadsheet models Delivery-focused modelling architecture explicit accounting of delivery steps contribution to levelized cost of hydrogen delivery modelling framework consistent with capital budgeting techniques in use in the utility (electricity and gas sectors) EAW ( RR) LCHD NHD System-wide infrastructure roll-out schedules explicit accounting of operating units, required new builds and overhauls Dynamic, demand-driven roll-out scenarios (tier 2 models) market penetration and uptake scenarios explicit accounting of unit roll-outs and replacements/overhauls LCHD LCHD processing LCHD transport LCHD distribution Operations-rich models realistic representation of operations for large-scale delivery revised assumptions away from industrial gas market scenarios (e.g. truck pathways) general flow equations for pipeline delivery differentiated at the transmission and distribution levels innovative liquid truck delivery algorithm base framework for carrier-based hydrogen delivery

22 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Tier 1 Modelling framework steady-state models focus on levelized cost of hydrogen delivery (LCHD) key inputs (base case values) pathway input parameter CGH2-T CGH2-P LH2-T CGH2-F average delivery distance, km system throughput, H2 t /d system capacity factor 70% 70% 70% -- station size, kg H2 /d , refuelling station capacity factor 70% 70% 70% 70%

23 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Truck delivery pathways: tractor operations Fuel economy 2.50 km/l ADO Average driving speed 50 km/h Number of drivers per tractor 2 drivers/tractor Driver hours per shift 8 h/shift Number of shifts per day 1 shift/driver-d Number of shifts per week 5 shift/driver-w Daily tractor availability 24 h/d Yearly tractor availability 98% simple operational considerations above limit the maximum round-trip delivery distance for truck delivery as follows: 650 km/delivery for truck delivery of compressed gaseous hydrogen, and 625 km/delivery for truck delivery of liquid hydrogen *. the average delivery distance for the two truck delivery pathways is thus limited in the models to half of these values. (*) in the 1500 kg H2 /d station size scenario (1 station served per delivery trip), 575 km/delivery for the 100 kg H2 /d station size (3 stations served per delivery trip).

24 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways LH2-T pathway: Truck delivery algorithm Solving the Net Hydrogen Delivered per station (NHD st ) as a function of: total LH2 tank-trailer capacity, C t LH2 tank-trailer useable fraction, f u average driving time per delivery segment, t ds LH2 tank-trailer boil-off rate (in %/h), l bo fraction of hydrogen load lost during unloading operations, l ul

25 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways LH2-T pathway: 2 stations per delivery trip C t (1 t ds l bo ) (1 l ul ) NHD st (1 t ds l bo )(1 l ul ) NHD st (1 t ds l bo ) C t (1 f u ) NHD st C t 1 (1 t ds l bo ) (1 l ul ) (1 t ds l bo )2 (1 l ul ) 2 1 f u 1 t ds l bo

26 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways CGH2-P pathway: average delivery distance Average delivery distance, trunk sections Transmission pipeline length (d avg, l d and l t ) inputs to the model l t,avg l t 2 1 N t N st l T d avg l d l t 2 1 N t N st

27 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways CGH2-P pathway: general flow equations Transmission and Trunk pipelines PANHANDLE B equation Q T 0 p p p inlet p outlet G z m T p, avg L p D p, int Distribution pipelines IGT equation Q p T 0 p p inlet p outlet G T p, avg L p D p, int

28 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Tier 1 results: LCHD, point-to-point delivery

29 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Tier 1: LCHD, centralized delivery pathways

30 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Tier 1: LCH, pathways with SMR generation

31 Ch Techno-economic analysis of delivery pathways Tier 2 Modelling framework dynamic, demand driven models focus on levelized cost of hydrogen (generation plus delivery) key inputs market uptake and penetration scenarios technology diffusion scenarios geographic infrastructure layouts

32 Technology substitution + Vehicle sales forecasts > H2 vehicle sales

33 Stock turnover modelling + VKT projections + Vehicle fuel economy > H2 demand scenarios

34 Infrastructure roll-out schedules: LH2-T DISTRIBUTION AND REFUELLING TRANSPORT

35 Infrastructure roll-out schedules: CGH2-T Tube trailers > Tractors >

36 Pathways results: LH2-T Processing and Handling Transport Distribution and Refuelling ACHD/LCHD By cost categories By delivery steps

37 LH2-T: Market penetration scenarios

38 LH2-T: Market uptake scenarios

39 Showcasing the model: Melbourne Area

40 Tier 2: least-cost infrastructure envelopes

41 Future directions: GIS-based demand scenarios

42 Future directions: H2/CNG mixtures