Welcome. Future Energy Scenarios 2018 Electricity Demand. Alex Haffner, Kein-Arn Ong, Dave Wagstaff. System Operator

Transcription

1 Welcome Future Energy Scenarios 2018 Electricity Demand Alex Haffner, Kein-Arn Ong, Dave Wagstaff System Operator

2 What we will cover today Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2018 overview How much electricity will we need? How will we travel? Can changing behaviour save us money? How will we heat our homes and workplaces? Q&A

3 Prosperity Level of decentralisation FES 2017 to FES 2018 Consumer Evolution Power Community Two Degrees Renewables Steady Progression State Slow Two Degrees Progression Speed of decarbonisation Green ambition Prosperity

4 Electricity Demand: Overall Demand How much electricity will we need?

5 Underying Annual Demand TWh Electricity Demand: Annual TWh By 2030, additional policy improves energy efficiency by ~30% in Community Renewables and Two Degrees Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History Steady Progression and Consumer Evolution: Efficiency improves slowly, heat is not decarbonised

6 Electricity peak demand (GW) Electricity Demand: Peak GW Peak influenced by transport and heat More smart charging and smart heat in Community Renewables and Two Degrees Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

7 Electricity Demand: Road Transport How will we travel?

8 Annual demand (TWh/year) Transport Annual electricity demand Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

9 Smart charging winter s day

10 Electricity Demand: Peak and V2G Net EV peak (GW) Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

11 Electricity Demand: Demand Side Response Could changing our behaviour save us money?

12 Engagement Smart charging and engagement 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

13 Residential Peak Reduction (GW) Electricity Demand: Residential Peak Reduction 0 -Static Pricing -Less smart appliances Half hourly settlement, dynamic pricing -3 -Impact reduced by more efficient appliances History Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

14 I&C demand side response (GW) Electricity Demand: Industrial & Commercial Response 0 Little change: Complexity, barriers, uncertainty Policy and market developments Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

15 Electricity Demand: Energy Efficiency Could efficient appliances save us money?

16 Residential Demand (TWh) Electricity Demand: Residential (no transport) Heat pumps Additional 2030 energy efficiency policy Hydrogen for home heating Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

17 Industrial & Commercial Demand TWh Electricity Demand: Industrial & Commercial Electric transport Additional 2030 energy efficiency policy Hydrogen by electrolysis Electric heat Hydrogen: Steam Methane Reformation with Carbon Capture & Storage Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

18 Electricity Demand: Future of Heat How will we keep warm at home and at work?

19 Residential Heat (TWh) Electricity Demand: Home heat technologies Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Community Evolution History

20 Residential Heat (TWh) Electricity Demand: Home heat technologies (CR) Heat Pumps: 4m-19m District Heat: 1m-2m Gas Boilers: 20m-6m Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Community Evolution History

21 Residential Heat (TWh) Electricity Demand: Home heat technologies (TD) Hydrogen: 0.1m-10m District Heat: 2m-3m Heat Pumps: 3m-9m Gas Boilers: 21m-7m Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Community Evolution History

22 Residential Heat (TWh) Electricity Demand: Home heat technologies (CE) Heat Pumps: 1m-6m District Heat: 0.6m-0.8m Gas Boilers 23m-20m (SP) Heat Pumps: 0.5m-3m District Heat: 0.7m-1m Gas Boilers 26m-24m Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Community Evolution History

23 Electricity demand for Hydrogen production (TWh) Electricity Demand: Hydrogen Two Degrees Hydrogen produced by -Steam Methane Reformation -Carbon Capture & Storage All other scenarios produce hydrogen by electrolysis Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

24 Electricity demand for Hydrogen production (TWh) Electricity Demand: Hydrogen TWh H TWh H TWh Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution History

25 Electricity Demand: Key Messages

26 Electricity Demand: Demand grows in all scenarios grows due electrification of transport Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid will play a key role in supporting a low carbon system Decarbonisation of heat is crucial and requires policy and market support Energy efficiency improvements could help to reduce consumer costs and optimise energy industry investment.

27 Future Events Webinars FES 2018 Overview Gas Demand Electricity Demand Gas Supply Electricity Supply Dates Tuesday 17 th July, 10:00-11:00am Wednesday 18th July, 10:00-11:00am Wednesday 18 th July, 2:00-3:00pm Thursday 19 th July, 10:00-11:00am Thursday 19 th July, 2:00-3:00pm To join please visit:

28 2018 Future Energy Scenarios Questions

29 How to stay involved FES 2018 launched on 12 July FES 2018 webinars during w/c 16 July Stakeholder engagement for FES 2019 from autumn 2018 Keep up-to-date via our website and newsletter

30 Thank you for your time Stay in touch: For more information visit: System Operator