Beneficial electrification

Transcription

1 Beneficial electrification Powering a More Electric Economy Use More, Emit Less. Possible? Gary Ambach Director of Business Development October 26, 2017

2 Trends in energy Energy sources Cost of energy Decarbonization

3 3 wind blowing low marginal cost

4 4 low cost in Northern Indiana high cost in Detroit

5 Twin Cities getting less expensive Northern Wisconsin getting more expensive new hot spot in Southern Illinois 5

6 2016 hourly day-ahead locational marginal prices at a Midwestern hub ordered by percentile $100 $90 $80 prices in this area are rare $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 -$ Minimum 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 30th Percentile 40th Percentile 50th Percentile 60th Percentile 70th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile Maximum 6

7 2016 hourly day-ahead locational marginal prices at a Midwestern hub ordered by percentile $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 90% of the prices lie below this line $0 -$

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9 $30 Average prices over the year ($ per MWh) $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 On Peak Average Off Peak 9

10 $30 $25 Average prices over the year ($ per MWh) Before we talk about shifting load, note that the average wholesale power year-round is only 2.0 cents per kwh $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 On Peak Average Off Peak 10

11 $30 Average prices over the year ($ per MWh) $25 $20 $15 18% lower $10 $5 33% lower $0 On Peak Average Off Peak 11

12 Key factors: When is electrification beneficial? PRICING ISSUES time of day season location

13 Utilities decarbonizing Xcel Energy on carbon reduction (from CEO letter to shareholders) Xcel Energy s carbon reduction story keeps getting better and better. Our preliminary emissions reporting shows that we achieved a significant milestone at the end of 2016, reducing our carbon emissions 30 percent (from a 2005 baseline) four years ahead of schedule. Our latest projections, based on proposed plans and projects in development, indicate that we will achieve at least a 45 percent reduction in carbon emissions system wide by Looking out further, we believe we can achieve a new target: a 60 percent system-wide carbon reduction by

14 Cold climate air source heat pumps Source: Santeri Viinamäki 14

15 Cold climate air source heat pumps Heating Mode DOE/GO FS143 June

16 Cold climate air source heat pumps Cooling Mode DOE/GO FS143 June

17 Energy Use Cold climate air source heat pumps Furnace Only ASHP backup ASHP Outdoor Temperature 17

18 Cold climate air source heat pumps Heating Method Operating Cost ASHP $1.76 / day Electric resistance 102% Oil 33% Propane 25% Natural gas (41%) WI Retail Rate $2.43/gal heating oil $1.51/gal propane $0.1073/kWh electricity $8.07/Mcf natural gas Adapted from Williamson and Aldrich, DOE,

19 Cold climate air source heat pumps What if ASHP performance improves savings 40% per DOE study? Heating Method Operating Cost ASHP $.97 / day Electric resistance 237% Oil 122% Propane 108% Natural gas (2%) Adapted from Williamson and Aldrich, DOE,

20 Cold climate air source heat pumps What if electricity rates fall*? Heating Method Operating Cost ASHP $.58 / day Electric resistance 508% Oil 299% Propane 276% Natural gas 77% Adapted from Williamson and Aldrich, DOE, 2015 *one utility offers $0.0595/kWh if using ASHP 20

21 Heat pump water heaters Source: U.S. Department of Energy 21

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23 Heat pump water heaters Heating Method Operating Cost Electric HPWH $145/year WI Retail Rate $1.51/gal propane $0.1073/kWh electricity $8.07/Mcf natural gas Electric standard 242% Natural gas - tank 34% Natural gas - tankless (15%) Propane 176% Adapted from Energy Star 23

24 Heat pump water heaters demand response Source: Widder et al. 2013, PNNL

25 Electric vehicles Barriers to widespread transportation electrification Vehicle availability, selection, and range Upfront vehicle costs Upfront costs of charging infrastructure Access to charging Vehicle operation Lack of awareness or understanding Utility tools are suited to help address these barriers Source: Pacific Gas and Electric Company 25

26 Electric vehicles Source: Pacific Gas and Electric Company 26

27 Electric vehicles Two charging infrastructure ownership models for sites under umbrella program, EV Charge Network EV Charge Sponsor: PG&E owns charging station Option for MUDs and any site in disadvantaged community up to 35% of total program ports PG&E owns and is responsible for all infrastructure, including charger units Site host pays participation payment based on site type, equipment choice, and number of chargers EV Charge Owner: Site host owns charging station Option for all site types/locations PG&E owns and is responsible for make-ready infrastructure (up to charger stub-out) Site host purchases, owns, and operates qualified charger equipment PG&E provides a rebate based on site type, equipment choice, and number of chargers Source: Pacific Gas and Electric Company 27

28 Electric vehicles Residential electric vehicle service - Pilot RateEnergy Charges: Off-Peak: 6.74 per kwh On-Peak: per kwh Other: Schedule 31 energy charges apply Less than $1 per gallon equivalent Definition of Periods Energy Charge time periods are defined as follows: Off-Peak 9:00 pm to 8:00 am Mon. Fri., and all day Weekends and Holidays On-Peak 4:00 pm to 9:00 pm Mon. Fri., excluding Holidays Other 8:00 am to 4:00 pm Mon. Fri., excluding Holidays 28

29 29 Tesla Roadster

30 A shifting transportation sector 5 th Avenue, New York City Source: U.S. National Archives Source: U.S. National Archives, George Grantham Bain Collection 30

31 31 Community Solar

32 Roof top PV Buffalo Fruit Belt solar project National Grid roof-top PV project-new York REV Community based Low-to-moderate community Connection in front of meter Benefits shared among hosts and non-host account holders 32

33 Roof top PV Buffalo Fruit Belt solar project National Grid roof-top PV project-new York REV Community based Low-to-moderate community Connection in front of meter Benefits shared among hosts and non-host account holders 33

34 Roof top PV Community-based objectives Increase renewable energy use in an underserved market Arrearages reduced Increased green jobs for locals Increased enrollment in NY s residential EE programs 34

35 Roof top PV Customer financial benefits Monthly bill credit Solar ready financial assistance for host homes Increased home value Increased enrollment in NY s residential EE programs 35

36 Roof top PV Utility benefits Utility-owned PV systems become assets Grid efficiency Arrearage decreases Line loss elimination CC BY-SA

37 Google Employs Artificial Intelligence to Cut Energy Use at Data Centers Shell Buys Slice of the Electric Vehicle Market With Purchase of NewMotion Experts: The Cost Gap Between Renewables and Natural Gas Is Closing On the Minds of Utility Execs: Digital Grids, Artificial Intelligence, Solar and Phasing Out Coal Renewables May Become the Netflix of the Energy Sector -Greentech Media 37

38 The energy industry has all the indicators of being on the cusp of disruption, according to a new report. Wood Mackenzie

39 Contact information

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