A Trade and Development Indicators System for Strategic Assessment and Monitoring: Applications relevant to SVEs and ACP Countries

Transcription

1 A Trade and Development Indicators System for Strategic Assessment and Monitoring: Applications relevant to SVEs and ACP Countries Progress attained on the smallness and vulnerability issues and potential advancements in monitoring the EPAs trade and development links Constantine Bartel - 11 May 2009

2 Content The ISDnet Indicators System: Concepts and Resources 1 Progress in the Smallness and Vulnerability Issues based on using the ISDnet system 2 Demonstration of a Web-based simplified version of the TDIS 3 The way ahead: Future research on the SVEs and ACP countries 4

3 TO OFFER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES THE NECESSARY INFORMATION TO STRATEGISE ON BUILDING ENDOGENOUS CAPACITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT Focusing on Key development-related processes Two main economic processes: Insertion in the global economy: trade, capital and knowledge flows Endogenous production of goods & services, including human settlements Intervention on nature, mainly associated to economic processes Power interaction and cooperation among social players Monitoring Endogenous Capacities in those Processes Four forms of capital embodying capacities to generate outputs: Economic K; Human K; Relational K and Natural K Knowledge incorporated in processes, improving outputs and cost effectiveness Institutions including conventions and regulations to foster synergies

4 THE LOGICS OF THE SYSTEM: MONITORING PROCESSES INPUTS, ENDOGENOUS CAPACITIES AND SD OUTCOMES Inputs influencing trade and development processes Trade and Development-Related Processes and Endogenous Capacities Development Outcomes Risks to Development Insertion in Global Economy Capital Inputs Capital Inputs in Processes in Processes Internal Productive Processes Economic Outcomes International Framework of Agreements Policies for Policies for Liberalization Liberalization and Externalities and Externalities Intervention on Nature Endogenous Endogenous Capacities Capacities to internalise to internalise SD Benefits SD Benefits Social & Equity Outcomes Knowledge, Knowledge, Institutions and Institutions and SS Active Policies SS Active Policies Power Interaction and Cooperation Environmental Outcomes

5 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE CONTRIBUTION OF ENDOGENOUS CAPACITIES TO SD ACHIEVEMENTS GDP = f (Econ. K; Human K) Log ( Y 2 ) 1 Log ( NKs ) Log ( LFst ) Goodness of fit R 2 = Adj-R 2 = n=63 Pr: <.0001 = [<.0001] 1 = [<.0001] 2 = [<.0001] < Parameters Y = Total PPP; NKs = Net Capital Stock; LFst = Total Labour Force with Secondary or Tertiary Education Level GDP = g (Econ. K; Natural K) Log ( Y 2 ) 1 Log ( NKs ) Log ( NKd ) Goodness of fit R 2 = Adj-R 2 = n=132 Pr: <.0001 = [<.0001] 1 = [<.0001] 2 = [0.0016] < Parameters Y = Total PPP; NKd = Net Capital Stock; NKd = Natural Capital Depletion GDPpc = h(econ. K; Knwledge) Log ( 2 Y ) 1 Log ( GKFpc ) Log ( SVApc ) Goodness of fit R 2 = Adj-R 2 = n=154 Pr: <.0001 = [<.0001] 1 = [<.0001] 2 = [<.0001] < Parameters Ypc = Per Capita PPP; GKFpc = Per Capita Gross Capital Formation; SVApc = Per Capita V. Added in Sustainable Activities Figure 1.1: Economic Outcome of Countries being explained by their Endogenous Capacities [Values in brackets] = Pr > t

6 Article 1, The Parties recognise the importance of monitoring and assessing the operation of the Agreement on decent work and other areas of sustainable development Development-related monitoring exercises of EPAs to inform the parties on their capacities to implement the agreement and the agreement s effectiveness in inducing trade and development outcomes; The results of monitoring and the development outcomes of their implementation could feed into: EPA-related policy making processes; development assistance, and could trigger adjustment and remedial measures.

7 Resources and Instruments Data Bases Knowledge and Technological Means Basic Platform Variables: - Economic - Social - Environmental Coverage: Countries to 2006 Trade Flows: - Imports and Exports - 3 to 10 dígits SITC tol Instruments for massive data processing - Methods and tools for Statistic and Econometric Analysis Specialists in: - Trade Negotiations - Development Economics - Strategies and Policies for Productive Sector Devt. - Competitiveness - Environmental Sustainability Available Indicators: Secondary - 10 Tertiary For: Countries - 69 Groupings to 2006 Permanent program for updating and upgrading

8 Resources and Instruments Area Indicators in the Data Base Primary Secondary Basic Platform Macroeconomics, Sectoral Activity and Trade Impacts Investment and Capital Stock (Ke, Kh, Kn) Socioeconomics (Population, Work Force, Employment, Equity, Poverty) Trade: Flows, prices, tariffs International Agreements: Trade and Investment, Social, Environmental Environment and Green Accounting Knowledge and Technology Instability and Shocks Risks Competitiveness: Economic, Technological, Environmental Endogenous Capacities to internalise Development Benefits TOTALES

9 Risks are intrinsic, not exogenous to development processes A development context is not enough to make DRR development supportive Risks must be explained within key development processes Risks-Poverty links Hazards impacts affect development outcomes, processes and capacities Poverty is an expression of deviations and shortages in development processes Losses and limitations in endogenous capacities hinder poverty reduction End of chain and Upstream links are both highly relevant for Sust. Development Vulnerability factors (VF) and Endogenous Capacities (EC) Most VF can be explained as weaknesses in Endogenous Capacities The main long-term strategy to reduce VF consists in enhancing EC The EC approach may provide the strategic action link between DRR and SD

10 Per Capita Medium and High-Technology Export (XMHT_pc) Ratio of Economic Losses to Net Capital Stock (ELKr) Per Capita Net Savings (NS_pc) Export Concentration by X-lines (DIV_xl) Market Share of World Export (X_s) GDP Volatility 10 years moving coefficient of variation DPNG_NV: Non-Vulnerable Developing Countries; DPNG_V: Vulnerable Developing Countries; OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries

11 Sixteen developing countries with GDP higher than OECD Costa Rica, Chile, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mauritius, Singapore, Sri Lanka, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates.

12 SVEs TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT LIMITATIONS IDENTIFIED THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT SITUATIONS TECHNIQUE USING ISDNET INDICATORS

13