Narration: The presentation consists of three parts.

Transcription

1 1

2 Narration: In this presentation, you will learn the basic facts about climate change. You will learn about the difference between mitigation and adaptation and the international responses to climate change. This presentation is an overview of the issue of climate change. You will learn basic facts about climate change, the difference between mitigation and adaptation, and the international responses to climate change. 2

3 Narration: The presentation consists of three parts. 3

4 Narration: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created in 1988 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The organization was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is a scientific body established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1998 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC produces assessment and special reports on climate change and related topics. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC contributed to building a common scientific basis of climate change which was crucial for starting the negotiation of international responses and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in

5 Narration: This graphs shows you that the global temperature has been rising very fast over 150 years. This graph shows the evolution of global temperature for 150 years, from 1850 to The temperature has been rising very fast. The trend lines show that this rate of temperature increase has been accelerating since

6 Narration: This graphs shows you that the global temperature has been rising very fast over 1,000 years. This graph shows the evolution of global temperature from the year 1000 to You will notice that the temperature has been rising very fast since

7 Narration: The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon. Without the greenhouse effect, the temperature on Earth would be about 30 degrees Celsius lower. But the increase of the greenhouse effect is causing rising global temperatures. The increase in global temperatures is mainly due to the increase of the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon, essential for life on earth. Without the greenhouse effect, the temperature on Earth would be around 30 C lower and life may not have been possible. The greenhouse effect is caused gases that absorb the reflected energy from the earth. These gases are known as greenhouse gases (GhG). 7

8 Narration: The concentrations of the three most important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide - are increasing at a very fast pace. What is the problem with these greenhouse gases? Their concentrations are increasing at a very fast pace. Graphs a, b and c show the evolution of the concentrations of the three most important greenhouse gases for the last 20,000 years: CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane), N2O (nitrous oxide). Graph d shows you the combined concentration. 8

9 Narration: Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. 9

10 Narration: This graphs shows you how various economic sectors contribute to the emissions of greenhouse gases. You will see that energy and land use changes are contributing the most. To properly view this graph, you may want to use the slideshow function under View. This graph summarises the contributions of different economic sectors (left) and sub-sectors (middle) to the emissions of greenhouse gases (right) worldwide. The width of the arrow is proportional to the radiative forcing, or the contribution to climate change. The contribution of the energy sector is high, especially for electricity, heat and transportation. Land use changes are also responsible for 18.2 per cent of the emissions of greenhouse gases. 10

11 Narration: Emissions of greenhouse gases are not evenly distributed in the world. Developed countries have higher emission rates than developing countries. In this graph, the emissions of world regions are proportional to the rectangle areas. The height is the per capita emission and the width is the population size. The differences in emission have led to the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities in the international discussion on climate change. Emissions of greenhouse gases are not evenly distributed in the world. Developed countries have higher emissions rates than developing countries. In this graph, the emissions of world regions are proportional to the rectangle areas. The height is the per capita emission and the width is the population size. The differences in emission have led to introducing the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities in the international discussion on climate change. Non-Annex I East Asia includes China. 11

12 Narration: The business as usual scenario shows an increase from 25 GtCO2 emitted in 1970 to 70 GtCO2 in While the OECD countries currently contribute the most GhG emissions, the situation will have changed by By 2030, the emissions from the 4 BRIC countries will equal those of the 30 OECD countries. To reach a 450 ppm stabilisation scenario, deep cuts in emissions must be achieved, as shown in the figure on the right. From 25 GtCO2 emitted yearly in 1970, the business as usual scenario shows an increase up to 70 GtCO2 in While the OECD countries contribute more to GhG emissions, the situation is different in By 2030, the emissions from 4 BRIC s will be equal to those from 30 OECD countries To reach a 450 ppm stabilisation scenario, deep cuts in emissions must be achieved (see left figure). 12

13 Narration: These are some examples of CO2 emissions from daily life. These are some examples of CO2 emissions from daily life. In discussions about climate change the term footprint is commonly used. The ecological footprint is a measure of human demand on the Earth's ecosystems. 13

14 Narration: This graph summarises the findings of scientists about the future temperature of the planet. By 2100, the temperature on Earth could be increased by 1.5 degrees Celcius and 4 degrees Celcius. Climate scenarios have been developed by the IPCC. Many scenarios and models give an idea of different climate evolutions. This graph summarises the findings of scientists regarding the future temperature of the planet. The "constant composition commitment" scenario corresponds to a greenhouse gas concentration that remains constant throughout the 21st century, which means CO2 emissions would have become nil in B1 corresponds (roughly) to constant emissions, A1B corresponds to a progressive doubling of the emissions, and A2 to a multiplication fourfold of the emissions to the end of the century. Compared to 2000 levels, the increase in mean surface temperature could be by between 1.5 C and 4 C by A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies). A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines. B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resourceefficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the A1 and B1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. Source: 14

15 Narration: Changes in temperature, rainfall and sea level would affect all human activities and ecosystems. In 1990 and 1992, the IPCC developed long-term emissions scenarios. As you can see from this diagram, changes in temperature, precipitation (rainfall) and sea level would affect all human activities and ecosystems. 15

16 Narration: Two solutions are being discussed to deal with the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and societies. Mitigation measures deal with addressing the causes of climate change. An example is reducing energy consumption and using clean technologies. Adaptation measures deal with the impacts of climate change. An example is developing managing watersheds for reducing landslides or developing alert systems for extreme events. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are causing climate change. These increased concentrations have - or will have - impacts on impacts on ecosystems and societies. Two solutions are being discussed. Mitigation measures address the causes of the problem - increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. For example, mitigation could be measures to reduce energy consumption and promote clean technologies.adaptation measures deal with the impacts of climate change. The objective of adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of society and ecosystems. For example, adaptation could involve managing watersheds to reduce landslides or developing alert systems for extreme events. 16

17 Narration: Adaptation and mitigation work differently in different sectors. For example, in the energy sector only mitigation measures will have an effect. For example, greenhouse gas emissions can be lowered by using clean technologies. In forestry and agriculture, both mitigation and adaptation can play an important role. Mitigation in forestry could involve avoiding deforestation. Adaptation measures are targeted at some sectors, while other sectors are targeted by mitigation. Forestry and agriculture are similar in that both adaptation and mitigation are of major interest. Mitigation in forestry can be implemented through avoiding deforestation or promoting carbon sequestration in new forests. Adaptation can be implemented through promoting biodiversity conservation and enhancing landscape connectivity. For agriculture, mitigation can be implemented through reducing the use of energy or fertilizers, whereas adaptation can be achieved through drought-resistant varieties or soil conservation. 17

18 Narration: There are two main international agreements on climate change: the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. In international agreements, there is an emphasis on mitigation rather than adaptation. However, parties to the Convention submit National Communications which must include sections on impact and adaptation. Least Developed Countries are drawing up National Adaptation Programmes of Action that assess their vulnerability and propose adaptation project ideas. The main international agreements on climate change are the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in The Kyoto Protocol has been complemented by other decisions by the Conference of the Parties. In international agreements there is an emphasis on mitigation rather than adaptation. Adaptation is mentioned in the UN Framework Convention in the National Communications. Parties to the Convention submit National Communications that must include sections on impacts and adaptation. Parties to the Convention must submit national reports on implementation of the Convention to the Conference of the Parties. Least Developed Countries must also develop National Adaptation Programmes of Actions to assess their vulnerability and propose adaptation project ideas. 18

19 Narration: Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries committed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to an average 95% of their 1990 emissions, between 2008 and Under the treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based flexible mechanisms: Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. This slide is an overview of the basic principles of the Kyoto Protocol. First, developed countries (or Annex I countries) are committed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in to 95% of their 1990 emissions. Commitments are not all the same (e.g. 8% reduction for the European Union). Second, 3 flexibility mechanisms were defined: Emission Trading (trade of excess allowances between Annex I countries), Joint Implementation (JI, trade of carbon credits between an Annex I country and a project located in another Annex I country), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM, trade of carbon credits between an Annex I country and a project located in a non-annex I country, i.e. a developing country). Forests are included in the national efforts of Annex I countries. Project-based mechanisms (JI and CDM) involve energy and forestry projects. 19

20 Narration: The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 1995 and will expire in All developed countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol except the United States. The Bush Administration and US Congress did not want to participate without commitments by China, India and other major emerging economies to reduce emissions. Today, the US government and Congress have the same concern. The US is pursuing a post-2012 Agreement that will include participation from all countries, including major emerging economies. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005 after the ratification of Russia. The agreement expires in Now all developed countries have ratified except the United States. The US government did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol primarily because of widespread opposition by the US Congress. The Congress and the Bush Administration decided they could not participate in such an agreement without commitments by China, India, and other major emerging economies to reduce emissions. China has now surpassed the US in total emissions, which means the Obama Administration and the US Congress have the same concern. It is very unlikely the US will join the Kyoto Protocol. The US government is pursuing a post-2012 Agreement that will include meaningful participation from all countries, including major emerging economies. 20

21 Narration: Under the Clean Development Mechanism, the only eligible forestry projects are AR, or Afforestation and Reforestation, projects. These projects must implement a forest on land that was not forested as of December 31, 1989 (for Reforestation) or had not been forested for 50 years (for Afforestation). Well-defined and rather complex modalities and procedures have been defined. Projects much follow these. They concern, among others, additionality and baselines; methodologies';permanence and temporary credits. The CDM is quite complex, especially for forestry projects, which face more barriers than energy projects. High transaction costs mean small projects will probably not benefit from the CDM, even if simplified modalities are defined for small-scale activities. So far, very few forestry projects have been accepted under the CDM. Under the Clean Development Mechanism, the only eligible forestry projects are AR (Afforestation and Reforestation) projects. These projects must implement a forest on land that has not been forested since December 31, 1989 (for Reforestation) or for 50 years (for Afforestation). Well-defined and somehow complex modalities and procedures have been defined and must followed by the projects. They concern, among others: - additionality (an important rule: only projects that would not have been implemented without the CDM are eligible) - baseline (only the difference of carbon between the project and the baseline or business as usual is credited) - methodologies (a project must follow an approved methodology for assessing its baseline, calculating its carbon storage, etc.) - permanence and temporary credits (as the carbon stored in a project may be released back to the atmosphere in case of land use change or fire, a safeguard had been defined: CDM forest projects can only trade temporary credits. Credits can expire, as well the carbon storage can disappear) The CDM is quite complex, especially for forestry projects which face more barriers than energy projects. Due to the transaction costs, small projects will probably not benefit from the CDM, even if simplified modalities have been defined for small-scale activities. So far, very few forestry projects has been accepted under the CDM (the first one was in China). There are more than 1000 projects of emission reduction (energy, industry, transportation, waste). However, 17 methodologies have been approved. They have been submitted by projects under design. More projects are currently under preparation, so new projects should be accepted soon. 21

22 Narration: In addition to afforestation and deforestation, which are covered in the CDM, there is Avoided Deforestation, also known as REDD. Since discussions in this area began in 2005, the concept of REDD and organisations that support it have developed considerably. In climate change negotiations in 2009, the Copenhagen Accord agreed to include REDD+ explicitly as part of the climate mitigation portfolio. Tropical deforestation represents about 17% of global carbon emissions. The Copenhagen Accord agreed in the climate change negotiations in 2009 include explicitly REDD+ as part of climate mitigation portfolio. In 2005, some countries asked for starting negotiations on how to include avoided deforestation in the global climate regime. The issue is called RED (Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation) or REDD ( and Degradation) depending on the scope of activities included. Main issues under post-copenhagen discussion include e.g. the links with cap-and-trade agreement and carbon markets, what to reward (efforts, reductions compared to a baseline ), impacts on sustainable development, redistribution of benefits and technical aspects of monitoring. In 2007 in Bali, an agreement was reached on the implementation of pilot actions. The World Bank has created a fund for funding REDD pilot activities (FCPF). Many bilateral initiatives have been developed and are under design. Hopefully soon an agreement will define the modalities of a mechanism for REDD/RED that benefits to the climate and the sustainable development of host countries. 22

23 Narration: There are many carbon markets. The Kyoto Protocol defined 3 flexibility mechanisms that involve market transactions. These are Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The European Union created an internal carbon market among big emitters, called the the EU ETS,or Emission Trading System. Other cap-and-trade initiatives have also developed carbon markets. These are the RGGI, or the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the Northeastern United States; the WRCAI,or the Western Regional Climate Action Initiative; and the Oregon Power Plant Offset Program. Voluntary markets involve individuals or organizations willing to offset their emissions. Some of these markets work for forestry projects in developing countries; these are the CDM and the voluntary markets. So far, the European ETS, which is the largest carbon market, has been accepting carbon credits from the CDM, except those from CDM forestry projects. There are many carbon markets. The Kyoto Protocol defined 3 flexibility mechanisms that involve market transactions (Emission Trading, Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism). The European Union created an internal carbon market among big emitters, the EU ETS (Emission Trading System). Other cap-and-trade initiatives (RGGI thee Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the Northeastern United States, WRCAI the Western Regional Climate Action Initiative, the Oregon Power Plant Offset Program, ) have developed carbon markets as well. Voluntary markets are involving individuals or organizations willing to offset their emissions. Some of these markets work for forestry projects in developing countries, e.g. the CDM or the voluntary markets. So far, the European ETS (the largest carbon market) has been accepting carbon credits from the CDM, except those from CDM forestry projects. 23

24 Narration: In carbon markets, transactions with projects are growing fast, as shown in the figure on the left. The CDM is the most important mechanism in terms of traded volumes. However, the share of forestry projects in the total is very small. As the figure on the right shows, forestry accounts for less than 1% of the total in the case of the CDM. Forestry's share is higher for voluntary markets at around 50%, but voluntary markets represent a small volume compared with the CDM. There are many reasons for this low transaction volume with forestry projects in carbon markets. Some of these are the absence of connections between the CDM and the EU ETS; the delay in forest-related CDM decisions, which were made 2 years after those for energy projects; the lack of awareness of markets regarding forestry projects; and the complexity of rules for forestry projects, such as for estimating carbon, monitoring, and impacts on sustainable development. In carbon markets, transactions with projects are growing fast (see left figure). The CDM is the most important mechanism in term of traded volumes. However, the share of forestry projects in the total is very low (less than 1% of the total in the case of the CDM). The share is higher for voluntary markets (around 50%), but voluntary markets represent a small volume compared to the CDM. There are many reasons for having a low transaction volume with forestry projects in carbon markets: the absence of connections between the CDM and the EU ETS, the delay in forestrelated CDM decisions (taken 2 years after those for energy projects), the lack of awareness of markets regarding forestry projects, the complexity of forestry projects (e.g. for carbon estimation, monitoring, impacts on sustainable development ). 24

25 Narration: Even if voluntary markets represent a lower transaction volume than the CDM, they may represent good opportunities for forestry projects, which seem more attractive to buyers in these markets. Another advantage of voluntary markets is that activities are not restricted to Afforestation and Reforestation as in the CDM. The modalities are not well defined and may be more simple than in the CDM. However, some voluntary markets have been criticized for lack stringency and selling air to buyers. That s why many organizations are using standards to assess and demonstrate the quality of their projects. Examples of standards are the Climate, Community, Biodiversity Standard (CCB) and the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS). Even if voluntary markets represent a lower transaction volume than the CDM, they may represent good opportunities for forestry projects, which seem more attractive to buyers in these markets. Another advantage of voluntary markets is that activities are not restricted to Afforestation and Reforestation as in the CDM. The modalities are not well defined and may be more simple than in the CDM. However, some voluntary markets have been criticized for lack stringency and selling air to buyers. That s why many organizations are using standards to assess and demonstrate the quality of their projects. Examples of standards are the Climate, Community, Biodiversity Standard (CCB) and the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS). 25

26 26

27 27

28 28

29 29

30 30