Plenary Session-8: Gas & Power Session Dr. Jafar D. Jafar Uruk Engineering & Contracting Company (LLC)

Transcription

1 Invited Talk Iraq Energy Forum Hosted by IRAQ Energy Institute(IEI) Al Rasheed Hotel Baghdad April 2-3, 2017 The Gas challenge for Iraq s Electricity Generation Plenary Session-8: Gas & Power Session Dr. Jafar D. Jafar Uruk Engineering & Contracting Company (LLC)

2 Highlights of This Talk 1. Commercials 2. Iraq s Power Sector Electricity Generation National Grid Transmission at 400kV and 132kV Electricity Tariff 3. Fuel Supply Light Distillate Oil (LDO) Crude Oil (CO) Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) Natural Gas (NG) 4. Natural Gas As Fuel for Power Generation

3 Uruk Engineering & Contracting specializes in Iraq s energy sector. It Completed the country s first Fast Track project according to plan; and its Environment, Health & Safety (EHS) includes over 6 million man-hours logged in the construction of 3 power plants without a major incident. Uruk is a fully integrated Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) company providing turnkey solutions with single source responsibility in the areas of power, infrastructure, oil & gas, petrochemicals, and wastewater management. OUR MISSION We will rebuild Iraq s power and energy sector through leadership, innovation, and excellence; Completing projects on time, within budget and to the best global standards possible. Page # 3

4 INFRASTRUCTURE OIL & GAS POWER 1. EPC Contractor 2. Established in the U.A.E /Dubai since Certified ISO 9001: Excellent Quality Credentials 5. Excellent EHS Credentials 6. Al Mansuriya Power Plant Project Completed 7. More than 4 million man hours without Loss of Time Incident (LTI) 8. Recently selected as best EHS site by Alstom worldwide 9. Constructed 1150 MW (ISO) so far in Iraq 10. Experienced in installation of GE Frame 6B, Frame 9E and Alstom 13E2 GTGs Page # 4

5 ACHIEVEMENTS ISO Certified 9001: : Private company established to address Iraq's energy and infrastructure rebuilding needs. 2004: 2004: Baiji steam plant rehabilitation project completed for Bechtel. UAE operations established as regional headquarters. 2009: Quds project completed for USGRD/MoE (2x125 MW GE frame 9E) 2012: Taji project completed for MoE (4x42 MW GE frame 6b) 2013: Mansuriya JV with Alstom completed but no fuel (4x182 Alstom 13e2) Page # 5 In Bid Evaluation Stage : Diwaniya O&M Open Cycle (4 x 125 MW) plus IPP Add-on EPC and O&M Mansuriya O&M Open Cycle (4 x 182 MW) Complete Rehabilitation IPP plus Add-on O&M Duara (4 x 160 MW) Complete Rehabilitation IPP plus O&M

6 QUDS POWER PLANT PROJECT Uruk Baghdad Company JV 250 Megawatts USD170,000,000

7 TAJI POWER PLANT PROJECT 168 Megawatts USD85,000,000 4 x GE Frame 6B Free Issued by MOE

8 724 Megawatts USD539,463,000 MANSURIYA POWER PLANT PROJECT Uruk Alstom JV

9 Networks for the Distribution of Electricity Page # 9 Types of Consumers Government Entities Households Industrial Commercial Agricultural Losses of Electrical Energy Within Distribution Networks was ~50-60%. Ministry of Electricity Has Privatized Tariff Collection Plus Maintenance of Distribution Networks. Underground Networks and SMART METERS Are Being Adapted. Average Tariff Over All Types of Consumers Should Be At Least 8 US/kWh or 100 IQD/kWh If Government Subsidies Are to Be Mostly Eliminated. MOE Produced 92.1 x 10 6 MWh During At This Price Then 2016 Total Revenue Would Have Reached ~7.4 BUSD.

10 National Grid Transmission at 400 kv and 132 kv To Remove Transmission Bottlenecks the following Projects Should be Implemented During the Next 5 Years Three 400 kv Sub-Stations Every Year Twelve 132 kv Sub-Stations Every Year At Least 500 km of 400 kv Transmission Lines At Least 1000 km of 132 kv Transmission Lines Page # 10

11 Iraq s Electricity Generating Capacity (2017) (Excluding KRG) Power Plant Design Capacity (MW) Steam Hydro GTG(ISO) Pre Added by US Period ( ) GE Mega Deal + Fast Track (2008) Siemens Deal (2009) Al-Zubaidiya (Shanghai) Al-Mansuriya (Alstom GE/Uruk) Besmaya Phase 1 (Investment) Sub Total TOTAL: MW Page # 11

12 Loss of Iraq s Generating Capacity Due to Intervention of Daesh (June 2014) (MW) Baiji Steam 6 x Baiji Old Gas Turbine 4 x Baiji Gas Turbine 6 x Gayara Gas Turbine 6 x Mosul Gas Turbine 12 x Almost All Hydro Power Plants 1800 Total (MW) 5680 Therefore, Only Approximately MW of Electricity Generation Capacity Remains After June 2014 Page # 12

13 Annual Electricity Production x10 6 MWh IRAQ S POWER SECTOR Iraq s Annual Electrical Energy Generation (Except KRG) ( ) 140 AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE 7.0% Daily Average Power Year MW 9160 MW 9320 MW MW Conclusion: Annual Increase in Generation capacity of 7% is insufficient to close thesupply/demand gap! Annual increase should be ~15% for a few years to reduce the short fall significantly Demand MW Page # 13

14 Environmental Impact (EI) - CO 2 a by-product of fossil fuel burning is the main cause of Global Warming (Greenhouse Effect). - NG as a fuel has the least EI. Flammability limits in air are 5-15% - For equal heat ( Calorific Value) output 1 Ton of Fossil Fuel Burnt Amount of CO 2 Produced (Ton) NG 2.75 Page # 14 HFO, Crude Oil, Diesel Burning of Processed Gas Produces no SO x and very low NO x Coal 4.0 Reduces CO2 emissions by 35%. - Using Gas as fuel for thermal power plants reduces maintenance costs by a factor of 3. Down times are also reduced thus providing a significant increase in availability. - Gas as Fuel for Gas Turbines will increase Output by 20% When Compared With Crude Oil or Heavy Fuel Oil.

15 Iraq s Natural Gas (NG) Proven recoverable reserves 2.7 TCM (11 th worldwide). 70% from associated gas, 20% from non-associated gas; i.e. from gas fields, 10% from gas caps or dome gas. Proven reserves could increase to 8.5 TCM if exploration is extended to many new areas not yet explored. Iraq could then be fourth or fifth worldwide in proven gas reserves. Available Raw Associated Gas in Iraq Today ~ 1900 mmscfd. Iraq s Current Gas Processing Capacity ~ 1000 mmscfd North Gas Company(NGC) Capacity 400 mmscfd (2 x 200 mmscfd trains) South Gas Company(SGC) Capacity 700 mmscfd Processed Gas Currently Available and Utilized for Various Industries Including Power Generation ~ 750 mmscfd (150 mmscfd from NGC and 600 from SGC). Processing Capacity of 200 mmscfd in NGC Not Utilized! Flared Gas ~ 1000 mmscfd. Price of Iran Supplied NG per 1mmBtu is 11% of Brent Price/bbl. Assume Brent Price = 50 USD/bbl. Then Current Value of Flared Gas at Iranian Price is 5.4 MUSD/d ~ 2.0 BUSD/year. Page # 15

16 Estimate of Fuel Needs for Electricity Generation Iraq s total electricity production during 2016 was 92 x 10 6 MWh. Assume Average Efficiency For The Conversion of Chemical Energy In The Fuel To Electrical Energy is 34%. Remember 1 BOE = 5650scf = 5.69 mmbtu = 6000 MJ = MWh. To Produce 92 x 10 6 MWh of Electrical Energy During 2016 Then MOE Needed To Burn 92 x 10 6 = 445,000 BOE/day x 0.34 x mmscfd of Gas Was Burnt = 133,000 BOE/day. Then 445, ,000 = 312,000 BOE/day of Liquid Fuel Was Burned During Probably 200,000 BOE/day of Crude Oil Was Burned During Remaining 112,000 BOE/day of HFO and Diesel Fuel Was Burned During Page # 16

17 Price of Iranian Gas Iranian Gas Is Priced per mmbtu at 11% of Brent Price/bbl. Assume Brent Price Today At 50 USD/bbl. With 1 BOE = 5.69 mmbtu, Then Price of Iranian Gas = 31 USD/BOE. Therefore, IT IS CHEAPER TO BURN IRANIAN GAS THAN TO BURN CRUDE OIL. SAVINGS FOR 200,000 bbl/day OF CRUDE OIL WOULD BE: 2.4 MUSD/day or 876 MUSD/year OPEC s Decision For Ceiling On Crude Oil Production Reduced Iraq s Crude Oil Production By 200,000 bbl/day. If Iraq Shifts From Burning Crude Oil To Gas Then It Can Export An Extra 200,000 bbl/day. Without Increasing Crude Oil Production Capacity And Maintaining OPEC s Restriction on Total Crude Production. Page # 17

18 In Conclusion My Messages Are As Follows- 1) Reduce Losses In the Electrical Distribution Networks. 2) Reduce Bottlenecks In Electricity Transmission. 3) Convert All Open Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plants to Combined Cycle. This Would Increase Power to the Grid By At Least 3000 MW At No Additional Fuel Cost. 4) Processed Dry Gas is the best fuel for power generation economically, environmentally and technically. Therefore, All Fuel Burning Power Plants Must Be Supplied With Gas. 5) The Use of Gas Would Increase Output of Existing Gas Turbine Power Plants by at least 20% or 1200MW. 6) All Flared Gas MUST BE PROCESSED ASAP. Annual Savings of 2 BUSD Are Foreseen. Page # 18

19 In Conclusion My Messages Are As Follows- 7) Import Iranian Gas And Substitute All Crude Oil Burning For Power Production By Iranian Gas Thereby Saving 876 MUSD/year. 8) Increase Crude Oil Export By 200,000 bbl/day Without Affecting OPEC s Agreed Crude Oil Production Ceiling. Thereby, Increasing Iraq s Crude Oil Revenue by 10 MUSD/day or 3.65 Billion USD/year. 9) Develop All Available Free Gas Fields To Enhance Gas Availability In Addition to Processing of Associated Gas. 10)Construct A New 150 km Pipeline to Link Taza With Mansuriya so that Available Gas from NGC of circa 200 mmscfd could be used for Power Generation. Also, this Pipeline will Provide an Alternative Route to Central Iraq. Page # 19

20 Suggested New 150km 24-inch Gas Pipeline Taza-Mansuriya New 160 km 24 inch Pipeline Mansuriya Power Plant Mansuriya Spur 32-inch Pipeline Iran-Iraq 48-inch Pipeline Page # 20 Original Figure From Shell Draft Document Iraq Gas Master Plan II 7 May 2015

21 Thank You For Your Attention Iraq Energy Forum Hosted by IRAQ Energy Institute(IEI) Al Rasheed Hotel Baghdad April 2-3, 2017 The Gas Challenge for Iraq s Electricity Generation Dr. Jafar D. Jafar Uruk Engineering & Contracting Company (LLC)