Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa

Transcription

1 Energy aess for strutural transformation and sustainable development in Afria Callixte KAMBANDA Manager - Energy Poliy, Regulation & Statistis Afrian Development Bank.kambanda@afdb.org Bangkok, February 2018

2 Overview of the presentation 1. Status of the Energy aess in Afria 2. The New Deal on Energy The ost of the New Deal on Energy Eletriity Aess Outlook (under the New Deal) 5. Regional opportunities to inrease Energy Aess 6. Conlusions 1

3 Status of the Energy aess in Afria: Afria ompared to the rest of the World 1 Assoiation of Southeast Asian Nations. 2 Bangladesh, DPR Korea, India, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Other Asia. Soure: AfDB,

4 Central Afria East Afria North Afria Afria Sub-Saharan Afria Southern Afria West Afria Energy aess for strutural transformation and sustainable Status of the Energy aess in Afria 100,0 80,0 Afria - % of population with aess to eletriity Afrian ountries grouped by level of their population perentage with primary reliane on lean fuels and tehnology (2014) 18 60,0 40,0 20,0 0, "Less than 5%" "Between 5-10%" "Between 10-40%" "Above 40%" positive trend but signifiant efforts needed to ahieve the SDG7 by 2030 Soure: AfDB,

5 The New Deal on Energy for Afria, NDEA ( ) 100% aess in urban areas; and 95% aess in rural areas. 130 million new on-grid onnetions 75 million end-users on off-grid solutions. One billion Afrians have aess to modern energy servies NDEA is partnership driven effort Soure: AfDB,

6 Universal aess by 2025 means: 200 millions HH onneted and nearly doubling the urrent grid generation apaity. 160 GW of new Capaity to be added. 80 GW of new apaity urrently under onstrution 130 M new on-grid onnetions 75 M new offgrid onnetions Soure: AfDB,

7 USD 30 bn : Total average annual investment needed (new estimates). USD 230 bn : Total investment needs by 2030 Afria The ost of the New Deal on Energy INVESTMENT NEEDS TO ACHIEVE NDEA TARGETS USD 420 bn : Total investment needs by 2040 USD 75 bn of urrently under onstrution (80 GW) Soure: AfDB,

8 Afria Eletriity Aess Outlook (under the New Deal) Household aess to eletriity (Million) and Connetion rate (%) projetions Soure: AfDB Statistis Department and Mutionsult 7

9 Afria Eletriity Aess Outlook Universal aess by year of realization Soure: AfDB Statistis Department and Mutionsult 8

10 Afria Regional opportunities to inrease Energy Aess East Afria more than quadrupling of installed apaity by undergo signifiant system integration ountries look to meet growing demand and utilize omparative resoures advantages Southern Afria reduing energy intensity in dampens foreasted demand growth and new investment requirements oal power in South Afria ontinues to dominate the generation mix system is already highly integrated some smaller ountries, reap signifiant benefits from the integration Soure: Atlas of Afria Energy Resoures, ICA

11 Afria Regional opportunities to inrease Energy Aess KEY FIGURES & TRENDS Northern Afria more most ountries are already at or near full aess demand growth is therefore primarily driven by the foreasted eonomi growth Afrian Regional Power Pool (RPP) Southern Afria Power Pool (SAPP) West Afria Power Pool (WAPP) Eastern Afria Power Pool (EAPP) Central Afria Power Pool (WAPP) Comité Maghrebin d'eletriité (COMELEC) Installed Capaity in the RPP (MW) Total Consumption in the RPP (GWh) Projeted Demand by 2030 (TWh) Projeted Investment Needs by 2030 (USD bn) 61,859 (2015) 269,375 (2015) ,648 (2015) 50,634 (2015) ,311 (2013) 232,505 (2013) ,299 (2013) 24,744 (2013) ,367 (2013) 120,200 (2013) PIDA 1 estimated that Regional Integration would save USD 33 billion p.a. on average by 2040 in power generation osts Soure: Regional Power Pool Report, ICA PIDA: Program for Infrastruture Development in Afria 10

12 Conlusions Aess to adequate energy servies in Afria remains a big hallenge to ahieving SDG7; NDEA: Bank s strategy as a response to this hallenge of Afria s Energy Aess; NDEA is a partnership driven effort aiming at ahieving 100% aess for eletriity in urban area and 95% in rural area under the New deal by 2025; some ountries will move on at a lower pae and they will only ahieve universal aess by Furthermore, the «New Deal» strategy is perfetly aligned with SDGs, partiularly SDG7 and will ensure Afria s path to ahieve the targets by Huge investments needs: The NDEA aims also at supporting Afrian ountries to improve environment to attrat investments: Poliies, Legal, Regulations and Data. 11

13 development in Afria THANK YOU Callixte KAMBANDA Division Manager Poliy, Regulation and Statistis Energy Solutions, Poliy and Regulation Department Afrian Development Bank 01 B.P Abidjan 01- Avenue Jean Paul II Côte d'ivoire Tel : (225) kambanda@afdb.org 12