at BC Hydro Presentation to PNUCC Randy Reimann, Director of Energy Planning

Transcription

1 Integrated t Resource Planning at BC Hydro Presentation to PNUCC Randy Reimann, Director of Energy Planning

2 Today s agenda 1. Our system 2. Integrated Resource Plan 3. Looking forward

3 Our system Generation 12,000 MW capacity 41 dam sites, 31 Hydro facilities and 2 thermal units >90% renewable Transmission 500 kv series-compensated backbone 18,000km of transmission lines 260 substations Interconnected to Alberta and US Distribution 56,000km of distribution lines Approximately 900,000 poles Serve 17 non-integrated areas

4 Our system Independent Power Producers (IPPs) We manage 108 Electricity Purchase Agreements for projects in commercial operation that deliver: ~13,400 GWh/year of energy ~25% of customer electricity needs

5 Integrated t Resource Plan The IRP is our flexible, long-term strategic plan to meet B.C. s expected growth in electricity demand over the next 20 years. Ensures a reliable electricity it supply Supports policy direction Cost effective The IRP is updated and submitted to government every 5 years for approval The 2013 IRP was approved by government in November 2013

6 Guiding policy Clean Energy Act The Clean Energy Act requires BC Hydro to be self-sufficient by 2016, and to respond to 16 energy objectives including: Generate at least 93% of all electricity from clean or renewable sources in B.C. Reduce expected increase in demand by 66% through DSM by 2020 Reduce GHG emissions in B.C. Foster First Nations/rural/economic development Ensure rates remain amongst the most competitive in North America 6 IRP Guiding policy Clean Energy Act

7 Integrated Resource Plan Key planning questions How much electricity is needed? What s the gap between supply and demand? What are the resource options to fill the gap? Which options best meet needs? IRP 7 IRP Key planning questions

8 Load forecast Demand for electricity is expected to increase by ~40% over the next 20 years. LNG will further increase this demand. 8 IRP Load forecast

9 Load forecast Residential & commercial sectors GW Wh GWh 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Residential load forecast Key trends: - 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F Commercial load forecast Both sectors demand growth tends to be relatively steady and related to broad economic and demographic trends Key uncertainties: Use of natural gas vs. electricity in the home Further changes to carbon tax and building codes Net metering and distributed generation Impact of electric vehicles 5,000 - F2005 F2007 F2009 F2011 F2013 F2015 F2017 F2019 F2021 F2023 F2025 F2027 F2029 F2031 F2033

10 Load forecast Industrial sector Key trends: Growth in shale gas production in northeast B.C. Potential substantial LNG loads on the B.C. coast Growth in mining load, and current low commodity prices Key uncertainties: Significant uncertainties remain in forecasting this sector In addition to exchange rates and the global commodity prices relevant to each sector, we are monitoring the developments in the following sectors: LNG Wood products Pulp & paper Oil & gas Mining 10 IRP Load forecast

11 Load forecast Industrial sector GWh 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Pulp & paper load forecast F2005 F2007 F2009 F2011 F2013 F2015 F2017 F2019 F2021 F2023 F2025 F2027 F2029 F2031 F2033 Global trends in newsprint, tissue and packaging demand Digital substitution in media and associated advertising revenues Economic growth trends in BC s export markets The relative competitiveness of BC mills Domestic fiber supply due to the Mountain Pine Beetle 11 IRP Load forecast

12 Load forecast Industrial sector GW Wh GWh 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Oil & gas load forecast F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F Mining load forecast F2005 F2007 F2009 F2011 F2013 F2015 F2017 F2019 F2021 F2023 F2025 F2027 F2029 F2031 F2033 Oil & gas: Uncertainty surrounding domestic LNG Economic growth and associated natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia Natural gas: Production in Asia Competing supplies in the US and Alberta Impact of North American shale gas growth on pricing Ability to obtain required approvals and consent based on fuel choice Availability of electricity to meet production start-up Mining: Environmental and First Nations issues B.C. government policies in support of mining

13 Energy load-resource balance 13 IRP Energy LRB

14 Capacity load-resource balance 14 IRP Capacity LRB

15 Recommendations The 2013 IRP includes 18 recommended actions in five categories: 1 Conserving first Conservation is the first and best choice to meet future demand growth Energy savings Capacity-focused DSM Explore codes & standards 2 3 Managing resources Powering tomorrow Manage IPP renewal costs (Bio-mass, Run of River) Site C Clean energy strategy Standing Offer Program (SOP) Promote opportunities for First Nations 4 Supporting LNG 5 Planning for the unexpected 15 IRP Recommendations Have adequate supply to meet the initial 3,000GWh of LNG load Prepare to meet further requirements as they emerge Continue to explore and advance capacity resource options for contingency purposes

16 Conserving first We are committed to meeting at least 66% of the expected increase in demand through conservation and efficiency by Initiatives include a mix of: Rates Codes & standards Conservation programs for commercial, residential, and industrial sectors Capacity-focused initiatives including direct load control and a voluntary industrial load curtailment program 16 IRP Recommendations

17 Managing resources Optimize the existing portfolio of IPP resources Clean/renewable electricity is purchased from Independent Power Producers through our Standing Offer Program Older Electricity Purchase Agreements (EPAs), particularly those for biomass and run-of-river projects, are coming up for renewal 17 IRP Recommendations

18 Powering tomorrow Site C 18 IRP Recommendations

19 Powering tomorrow Interior to Lower Mainland transmission line 19 IRP Recommendations

20 Looking forward: The evolving utility environment Key issues heading into the 2018 IRP The future role of DSM Climate change and related policy, including: Reservoir inflows, load changes, and adaptation to changing weather patterns Carbon pricing Carbon tax, cap and trade B.C. s role in meeting other jurisdictions climate policies Market evolution Penetration of distributed generation, storage and the future role of utilities Freshet supply and market pricing 20 Looking forward Evolving utility environment

21 Looking forward: The evolving utility environment Key issues heading into the 2018 IRP continued Deindustrialization of North America/B.C. and load implications Future sources of clean capacity, and fostering their development Impacts of resolving First Nations rights and title issues Leveraging data from Smart Meters to better understand customer behaviour Planning will address a range of load forecasts, load resource balances, identify current resource options and characteristics (wind integration costs), and undertake full market assessment and portfolio and scenario analysis. 21 Looking forward Evolving utility environment

22 Looking forward: Updates to B.C. s Climate Leadership Plan In 2015, a multi-stakeholder Climate Leadership Team (CLT) was mandated to make recommendations to meet B.C. s GHG reduction targets (2020 and 2050) within the context of economic growth, B.C. s LNG Strategy and the B.C. Jobs Plan. CLT recommendations were released fall of Examples include: Increase target to 100% renewable electricity by 2025 Phase out diesel generation in remote communities Starting 2018, increase carbon tax to $10/tonne/year and expand the scope of coverage Revenue fed back to impacted industries (Emission intensive, trade- exposed sectors) Establish building strategy to reduce GHG emissions by 50% by 2030 Impose zero emissions vehicle targets Government is currently undertaking a second round of consultation Climate Leadership Plan expected spring of Looking forward Climate Leadership Plan

23 Looking forward: Conservation Potential Review The CPR estimates the conservation potential of technologies and activities, and defines where, how, and at what cost energy demand can be reduced. Currently, BC Hydro is collaborating with FortisBC on a province-wide, dual fuel CPR: Phase 1 Determines the economic potential of electricity and natural gas Estimated to be completed by April 2016 Phase 2 Includes fuel switching, achievable potential, and customer side renewable energy potential. BC Utilities Commission to decide to proceed or not. The CPR informs our IRP, as well as our DSM plan and load forecast 23 Looking forward Conservation Potential Review

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