Administrative vs. Resource Outcomes Based Management

Transcription

1 Administrative vs. Resource Outcomes Based Developing Interim Milestones & Criteria to Measure Progress Thomas E. Davenport Goal Measures Results Administrative Outcome Approach Program Performance Administrative Actions Improve Programs Resource Outcomes Approach Environmental Performance Indicator End-points Programs are Tools to Improve the Environment Most environmental indicators have been developed to report regularly on the state of the environment rather than the success of a specific project. Heinz Center is a leader in developing and using environmental indicators Human Health Recreational Use Support (Swimmable) Bacteria (E. coli): at least 5 equally spaced samples over thirty (30) days. (cfu = colony forming units) Bacteria (E. coli): grab samples Fully Supporting Geometric mean <125 cfu/100ml and no more than one sample >576 cfu/100ml. No more than 10% of measurements >576 cfu/100ml and no more than one (1) sample >2400 cfu/100ml. Not Supporting Geometric mean exceeds 125 cfu/100ml. More than 10% of samples >576 cfu/100ml or more than one (1) sample >2,400 cfu/100ml. Day-to-day and year-to-year variability in E.coli and other parameters are often greater than reduction due to NPS program E. coli concentration (cfu 100 ml -1 ) Samples taken here suggest downstream 10 much higher than upstream and both are impaired 1 Samples taken here suggest upstream meets standards, downstream impaired; Sampling site downstream of cattle Sampling site upstream of cattle 8/27/00 9/16/00 10/6/00 10/26/00 11/15/00 12/5/ Discharge (m 3 s -1 ) 1

2 Sneaker Index (Patuxent River) Hundreds of people wade in each year until they can no longer see their feet Begun in 1988, the annual wade has attracted governors, congressmen, hundreds of people. Conceptual model Program Program Activities Activities Reduction in pollution entering stream Use of water quality management Practices Improvement of water quality social norms constraints skills values attitudes knowledge capacity awareness Upper Illinois River Watershed Lake Michigan Indicators measure progress towards our goals. N Upper Illinois River Watershed 2% Drainage Area Summary Conservation Practices All Plans, All Land Uses, All Resources for FY % For watershed management projects, our goals are based in the Clean Water Act. Restore and maintain chemical, physical, and biological integrity Fishable and swimmable streams HUC = Digit-HUC W S E Miles Value of Milestones Allows you to track actions various partners will take to achieve goals Relates project goals to how things are being accomplished Status of objectives/outputs easy to determine 2

3 Milestones Indicator and temporally based Stakeholders can relate to the time frame and measure. Specific to work plan activities and priorities. Milestones with water quality goals form the bases of the projects monitoring effort Types of Milestones Tracking milestones (process track BMPs, # of permits, etc against workplan expectations) Interim milestones (process/outcome training completed prior to BMP installation) Critical milestones (outcome/impact without this achievement the project will succeed must make changes) Are there indicators to measure all these outcomes? Outcome 1. Water is swimmable 2. E.coli is reduced to meet WQ std 3. Cows are no longer in stream 4. Farmers install fencing and alternate watering systems 5. Farmers believe cows should be out of stream 6. Farmers know how to exclude cattle (and cost-share) Measurable? Types of Indicators Social Administrative Environmental Environmental indicators include Condition Indicators Water quality, habitat quality, aquatic communities Stressor Indicators Less manure in the stream from cattle Reduction in nutrient loading Increase in forested riparian buffers Indicators (maybe some overlap with social indicators) Critical milestone Lower Big Rib Priority Watershed project established a critical milestone to trigger management focus: after 5 years of implementation, the calculated sediment reduction based on cost share agreements, is less than 60% of the total cropland sediment reduction goal. Additional cropland fields will be classified as critical and eligible for assistance. 3

4 ADMINISTRATIVE INDICATORS LEVEL 1: Ohio EPA awards 319 grants; goal is achieve restoration of impaired uses (meet WQS); Ohio DNR & NRCS develop NPS management & abatement strategies INDEX OF BIOTIC INTEGRITY (IBI) TMDL M&A Non Point Sources $$$$ WQS RESPONSE LEVEL 6: Biological assemblage improves EWH WWH Auglaize River 2000 STRESSORS Agricultural Producers Implement LEVEL 2: Conservation Practices Auglaize Basin Tillage Practices Percentage of Basin Acres NO TILLAGE CONSERVATION TILLAGE YEAR STRESS & EXPOSURE LEVELS 3-5: BMPs Produce Reduced NPS loadings Mean Daily Suspended Sediment Loading (Tons/Day) Auglaize River near Ft. Jennings, Ohio Annual Spring Summer Fall Winter TSS decreased, water quality & habitat improved Section 319 and Other Related NPS Programs Why are Social Indicators Important? Intermediate Outcomes Improved Water Quality Social Indicators Awareness indicators Consistent questions used before and after a project (and possibly mid project) Consistent questions used across projects in one region Surveys (when appropriate methodology) used rigorously and correctly Attitude indicators Capacity indicators 4

5 Behavior indicators PLANNING INPUTS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES Programmatic investments i Activities Participation Short Medium Long term EVALUATION Lake Sarah Watershed Plan Turbidity Objective Evaluation Measurements Type/Time frame Indicator Objective Reduce turbidity in lake by 15 % by June 2010 Activity Install riparian buffers Action Involve local landowners Responsibility Partner group Time Frame July 2001 July 2008 Cost Estimate XXXX Administrative Beans (early) Environmental (end) Social (early-end) $ spent BMPs installed Loading reductions IBI changes # participants KSA changes LOGIC MODEL Biological Endpoint Situation Excessive Soil Loss Causing WQ Impairments INPUTS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES Measures/Activities Products Short Medium Long-term INPUTS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES Social Capacity Building investments What we invest Activities What we do BMP installation Who we reach Flow Channel Biology What results SO WHAT?? I&E Monitoring Project Profile Ecucation Awareness Activities Capability is Increased Conservation Plan Developed Provided Allocated Behavior Changes Terrace Installed O&M Change Additional BMPs Installed Reduced Availability of Pollutants Decreased Pollutant Loading Flow Stabilized IBI Shows Improvement Channel Change Impairment Eliminated Decreased Peak Flow and Total Flow 5

6 Figure 1: Logic Model. Low Impact Development (LID) channel stability example integrating modeling and monitoring (green) activities. Modeling (red) is used to help define critical areas and estimate how long until medium and long-term outcomes can be obtained. The monitoring (blue) strategy for sediment and flow strategy is based upon the model predictions. INPUTS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES Activities Product Short Medium Long-term Flashiness Index Data and information (baseline condition) Public awareness Landowner/ Developer outreach Watershed Inventory & assessment Water quality problems documented Critical areas defined & identified Awareness of water quality problems Plan developed LID and zoning ordnances enacted Future development limited LID BMPs installed Reduce Erosion (tons of soil saved) changed Decreased flow Habitat Quality Improved Channel stabilized Decreased Sediment Biology restored WQS met Frequency and rapidity of short term changes in streamflow Increased flashiness has been linked to lower biological scores Focus on matching flashiness to more natural flow regimes Source: Baker et al., 2004 Indicators & targets: short/long term This diagram shows how development and its corresponding increase in impervious cover disrupts the natural water balance. In the post-development setting, the amount of water running off the site is dramatically increased. 34 Milestones/Adaptive Project water quality goals are not modified based on lack of progress Implementation, monitoring, O&M activities are modified to achieve water quality goals Milestones help tell you when Finally Make Adjustments Monitor water quality and BMPs Compare results to goals Are you making progress? Are you meeting your goals? If you aren t meeting implementation milestones If you aren t making progress toward reducing pollutant loads. Then do it all over again! 6