The All Island Grid Study and Beyond

Transcription

1 The All Island Grid Study and Beyond Integrating Large Scale Generation of Electricity from Renewable Sources into Ireland s National Grid Paul Smith BE, MIE, CEng, FIEI, MIET EirGrid plc 26 th November 2008

2 Screening Study Conventional + Renewable gen portfolios Renewable generation portfolios Resource Assessment Geo-spread portfolios Commitment and Dispatch Study Critical Dispatches Network Study Dispatch Information Network Information Costs and Benefits Investment, O&M Costs

3 Interconnections assumed in Grid Study SCOTLAND IRELAND WALES ENGLAND

4 Screening Study Considered a wide range of input parameters (gas price, carbon price, financing costs etc,) Identified a range of scenarios to be considered in the more detailed studies

5 Gas prices 2-12/GJ CO 2 prices 0-100/tonne

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7 Gas Price ( /GJ) Carbon Price ( /Ton of CO2) Penetration of Wind Capacity in Least-Cost Portfolios (MW)

8 Gas Price ( /GJ) Carbon Price ( /Ton of CO2) Penetration of Coal/Lignite Capacity in Least-Cost Portfolios (MW)

9 Portfolios CCGT (old and new) 18,000 New Coal MW Conv. Gas 16,000 Storage Base renewables 14,000 Other renewables Old Coal_Peat Old Gasoil New OCGT New ADGT Wind 12,000 10, MW max. load 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, MW min. load 0 Share of Renewables Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 Portfolio 6 Capacity 23 % 36 % 36 % 36 % 47 % 59 % Energy 16 % 27 % 27 % 27 % 42 % 59 %

10 Societal Costs of Adopting Portfolios Additional societal cost for electricity provision [MEuro/a] 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Operational cost w/o CO2 Cost of CO2 Net Payments Export/Import Annual invest renewable Generation Annual invest network reinforcement Annual fixed cost new conv. Generation 3,198 3,312 3,325 3,368 3, , ,408 1,206 1,209 1,105 1,015 Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 RE share of demand 16% 27% 27% 27% 42% CO 2 emissions [Mt/a]

11 Fuel Usage Annual fuel consumption [PJ] Gasoil Coal Gas 0 Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 Gasoil Coal Gas

12 Impact on thermal generation 100% 90% 80% 70% Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 4 Portfolio 5 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CCGT (old & new) Conv. Gas New ADGT New Coal New OCGT Old coal & peat Capacity factor thermal generators Old Gasoil

13 Existing 220kV and 275 kv Existing 400 kv New 220 kv and 275 kv

14 Total length of transmission lines to be reinforced

15 The EirGrid Goal Renewable Facilitation Policy EirGrid intends to be a world leader in the facilitation of renewables. In order to achieve this, EirGrid is committed to proactively working with all stakeholders and customers to ensure all government targets in relation to renewables are realised while ensuring the continued security, safety and reliability of the power system.

16 The Challenge: Government Targets Indicative Trajectory (trajectory from RES-E Directive) Installed Wind MW Year 33% Installed 40% Installed Source: RES E Directive using a 30% load factor for wind and a contribution from installed hydro plant

17 Making it all work by 2020 Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio

18 Making it all work by 2020 Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio

19 Infrastructure Infrastructure Operational Portfolio Performance Interconnection Grid 25 EirGrid s Grid Development Strategy

20 Connecting Ireland and Britain Woodland Deeside Insert map with Woodland and Rush

21 East West Interconnector - Progress Tender negotiations commencing & supplier to be chosen soon Grid connection points, marine survey and extensive route analysis Consultation with local authorities and public in Ireland and Wales Planning application to An Bord Pleanála on 18/11 Interconnector route exempt from planning in the UK, only required for converter station

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23 Crown Copyright and/or database rights. Reproduced by permission of the Controller of Her Majesty s Stationery Office and the UK Hydrographic Office ( Not to be used for Navigation.

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25 East West Interconnector Next Steps Continuing consultation Planning application processing Foreshore licenses Commence construction 2010 Subject to contract and planning Targeting completion for 2012

26 Further Interconnection We will ask EirGrid to undertake cost benefit analysis and feasibility planning within the next two years for decisions in relation to further interconnection with Britain or potentially with Europe This study is now in progress

27 Other interconnector projects Source:

28 Other interconnector projects Source:

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30 GRID25 is essential to: Supporting growth in the regions and ensuring continued reliability and security of supply; Providing high-quality, high voltage bulk power supply for Ireland that will enable the different regions to attract in future industry and boost existing industry; Exploiting Ireland s natural renewable sources of energy (wind and wave); Reducing Ireland s carbon emissions by transmitting renewable energy in line with Government policy; Increasing Ireland s connectivity to the European Grid, allowing for both bulk exports of electricity and imports of electricity when appropriate

31 Geographic Distribution of Renewables 1,678 * 2, ,792

32 GRID25 Primary Corridors for Reinforcement Investigation *

33 Development Requirement Estimates 1,150 km new build (~20% increase of existing network) 800 km EHV (220/275/400 kv) 350 km 110 kv 2,300 km uprate of existing network 1,100 km EHV 1,200 km 110 kv Total Cost 4 billion

34 KILTOY Sample: North West Demand growth BMW region NSS gateways & hubs New generation driving west-toeast power flows High levels of renewable resources Opportunity for gas-fired generation 880 MW Wind 240 MW Wave Peat, Biomass, Gas potential 690 MW Wind BELLACORICK TAWNAGHMORE CASTLEBAR MOY DALTON CUNGHILL TONROE TRILLICK SO BUNBEG LETTERKENNY MEENTYCAT DRUMKEEN TIEVEBRACK TO STRABANE BINBANE GOLAGH CATHALEEN'S CLIFF FALL TO ENNISKILLEN SLIGO CORDERRY SRANANAGH CORRACLASSY GORTAWEE ARIGNA SHANKILL CARRICK -ON- SHANNON GILRA ARVA FLAGFORD RICHMOND LANESBORO MULLINGAR CLOON CAMUS ATHLONE Grid largely 110 kv, lightly interconnected with NI 266 MW Wind DERRYIRON

35 KILTOY North West Developments North Donegal wind will be transported through NI by new tielines High capacity connection into Mayo Upgrading of significant amount of existing network MW TRILLICK SO BUNBEG new grid LETTERKENNY capacity; MEENTYCAT DRUMKEEN TIEVEBRACK TO STRABANE Uprate 180 BINBANE GOLAGH km of CATHALEEN'S existing CLIFF FALL network TO ENNISKILLEN SLIGO TAWNAGHMORE CORDERRY SRANANAGH CORRACLASSY BELLACORICK CUNGHILL GORTAWEE MOY ARIGNA 500 MW new grid SHANKILL CARRICK -ON- SHANNON TONROE GILRA capacity; ARVA CASTLEBAR FLAGFORD Uprate 470 km of DALTON RICHMOND LANESBORO existing network MULLINGAR CLOON CAMUS ATHLONE DERRYIRON

36 Regional Developments North-West Srananagh Binbane-Letterkenny Mayo to East Donegal NI Upgrade 700km West Shannon Estuary Limerick & Ennis Upgrade 250km South-West Cork network Wind Connection South West to South East Upgrade 130km South-East North-East N-S Interconnector Kingscourt-Woodland West to East Dundalk reinforcement Upgrade 240km East Dublin - Cork capacity Major cities and towns Upgrade 490km 220 kv load stations Capacity into region Dublin City capacity Dublin By-pass Kildare & N. Wicklow Upgrade 450km Midlands Tapping into 400kV Athlone, Mullingar & Tullamore Upgrade 225km

37 Issues: Infrastructure Infrastructure Operational Portfolio Performance Identifying infrastructure requirements What to build? When? What technologies? Building it on time Obtaining permissions and wayleaves Building Connecting generation Issuing connection offers Building connections

38 Making it all work by 2020 Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio

39 Operational Increasing Complexity Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio New and improved tools and facilities Operating closer to limits Dynamic rating of overhead lines Special protection schemes Develop and learn Training Studies and simulations Learn from others Identify and implement best practice

40 Operational Variability Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio Flexible portfolio: Non-renewable generation Demand response Power System Frequency Automatic Generation Control System Voltage Interconnection and renewable generation changes sources of reactive power Increased network loading increases reactive losses New reactive power strategy

41 Operational Uncertainty Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio Wind generation uncertainty Prediction, Anemos, Safewind Demand uncertainty Transport electrification Effect of Smart Metering Better demand prediction Exploit Smart Meters demand response

42 Making it all work by 2020 Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio

43 Issues: Portfolio Performance Operational Infrastructure Generation Portfolio Identifying the properties of a conventional fleet capable of supporting renewable targets All Island Grid Study Follow On will quantify levels of flexibility required to support target levels of renewable energy

44 Flexible Portfolio Infrastructure Operational Generation Portfolio New flexible generation Exploit flexibility of existing generators Improved plant controls Electricity market issues Demand response Storage

45 Issues: Portfolio Performance Operational Infrastructure Generation Portfolio Incentivising and supporting the necessary flexibility Develop a holistic policy for energy, capacity and ancillary services payments to ensure delivery of the services required.

46 Issues: Portfolio Performance Operational Infrastructure Generation Portfolio Supporting standards for a changing power system Develop the Grid Code to deal with the changing nature of the power system Develop and implement a performance monitoring framework to ensure all users of the Grid are and remain complaint

47 The Challenge Irish Government target is now 40% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2020 Northern Ireland Minister Foster has said that 33% renewables is a reasonable target Indicative Trajectory (trajectory from RES-E Directive) Installed Wind MW Year 40% Installed

48 The Challenge Enormous challenge to Construct the renewable generators Connect them to the grid Reinforce the grid Construct interconnectors Deliver the complementary non-renewable generation portfolio Develop and implement new operational practices Develop and implement market arrangements for energy and ancillary services Review and refine technical standards for renewable and nonrenewable generators (Grid Code) and monitor compliance

49 Meeting the challenge Engagement and support of all Stakeholders Landowners Electricity users Public authorities Regulators Farming organisations Transmission & Distribution operators & owners PUBLIC Non renewable generators Wind farm owners Wind turbine manufacturers

50 Meeting the challenge Research and development Renewable generation technology Fault ride through, Reactive power capability, Inertia, Frequency response Flexible non-renewable generators Low minimum stable output, Quick start, High ramp rates, Inertia, Frequency response Emissions performance,

51 Meeting the challenge Research and development Demand and Storage Exploiting demand response Storage Technologies Benefits of storage Integration and operation of demand response and storage Operation and control strategies Power system analysis methods and tools

52 Meeting the challenge Engineers Engineers needed to innovate, design, specify, supervise, manage and operate etc. Renewable generators Non-renewable generators Network connections Transmission and distribution infrastructure Submarine interconnections Electrical energy and ancillary service markets Integrated power system Communication and control

53 Acknowledgements EirGrid for permission to make this presentation EirGrid colleagues for support and assistance throughout the All Island Grid Study and in preparing this presentation All Island Grid Study team NIE, Government Departments, SEI, Action Renewables, Regulators, Prof. M. O Malley Consultants Dr. R. Doherty, ESBI, Risø, Univ. Stuttgart, TNEI, Univ. Strathclyde, Ecofys, Ecar

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