Hydrology in Western Colorado: Planning for Resilience

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1 Hydrology in Western Colorado: Planning for Resilience 2016 Water Course February 18, 2016 Dr. Gigi A. Richard Director, Hutchins Water Center at CMU Professor, Geology Coordinator, Civil Engineering Partnership CMU/CU-Boulder

2 2016 Water Year Oct Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Water year is named for the year in which it ends

3 How to define normal? We often compare hydrologic and meteorologic data to the average of a recent 30-yr period = 30 years Warmer, drier and lower streamflow than 1970s = 30 years The new normal = warmer, drier, lower streamflow

4 Image credit: Colo. Foundation for Water Education Hydrology and Water Use of Colorado and the Colorado River Basin

5 Colorado s Water Supply

6 Grand Jnct Average Precipitation 9 in/yr Colorado Avg Precipitation 15.5 in/yr

7 Colorado s climate varies spatially and temporally Monthly temperature and precipitation, avg Blue bar = mean monthly precip, in (right axis) Red line = mean daily max T for each month Blue line = mean daily min T for each month From Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation, produced by Western Water Assessment, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder for the Colorado Water Conservation Board, Aug 2014

8 Climate & Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin 34% of watershed receives < 10 in/yr 84% of watershed receives < 20 in/yr Most of the runoff is produced by only 15% of the drainage area

9 How does this precipitation regime translate into timing of streamflow? Upper Colorado River Basin Fassnacht 2006 Lower Colorado River Basin Annual Hydrograph at CO-UT state line Data from usgs.gov

10 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line ( ) This graph is called a hydrograph Streamflow data from usgs.gov

11 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line ( ) Colorado River near 29 Road in Grand Junction were wet years 1983 in the Grand Canyon Streamflow data from usgs.gov

12 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line Yampa River at Deerlodge, June 11, 2011, 23, 600 cfs ( ) 6 th highest flood at this gage Yampa River, June 8, 2011, 19,600 cfs at Maybell Streamflow data from usgs.gov

13 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line ( ) Lowest peak flow on record at this gage Variability in timing and distribution of precipitation result in variable streamflow and availability of surface water supply Streamflow data from usgs.gov

14 80% of the Water 80-90% of the Population From Colorado s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board What do we do when we don t have water when and where we need it? 14

15 Lake Granby (539,800 ac-ft), Shadow Mtn. (18, 400 ac-ft) and Grand Lake 3.8 maf Blue Mesa Dam and Reservoir 940,700 ac-ft capacity 1.1 maf 1.7 maf Dillon Dam and Reservoir 257,000 ac-ft capacity McPhee Dam and Reservoir 381,195 ac-ft capacity 1.8 maf 2.9 maf Photo by Peter McBride From High Country News

16 most regulated river in the world 3.8 maf Central Arizona Project 1.1 maf Total storage capacity is now 60 million ac-ft about 4 times the long-term mean annual flow at Lees Ferry (USBR 2012) Glen Canyon Dam, 1963 Lake Powell 27 million ac-ft storage capacity Photos by Peter McBride 29 maf 27 maf 1.7 maf 2.9 maf Consumptive use has increased All-American to Canal about Photo from Nasa.gov 90% of the long-term Colorado River Aqueduct Los Angeles & San Diego Yuma (Schmidt 2007) average annual flow at Hoover Dam, 1935 Lake Mead 29 million ac-ft storage capacity Photo by Peter McBride From High Country News

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18 1983 Flood Natural Variability Controlled Variability Filling Lake Powell Oct. 1921

19 Hydrology Peak flows Base flows Total flow Resulting impacts Ecological riparian & aquatic Invasive species Habitat alteration Sediment supply & channel morphology Channel simplification Water Quality Q T DO Salinity Selenium 4 endemic endangered fish species From VanSteeter & Pitlick 1998

20 How do we use water in Colorado? Use ac-ft/yr Public Supply 950,000 Domestic Fresh 42,500 Irrigation 10,900,000 Livestock 41,300 Aquaculture 137,000 Industrial 146,000 Mining 32,000 Thermoelectric 86,300 Total 12,335,100 Irrigation 89% Data from Kenny, J.F., Barber, N.L., Hutson, S.S., Linsey, K.S., Lovelace, J.K., and Maupin, M.A., 2009, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2005: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1344, 52 p.

21 How does Colorado s water use compare with other states? Figure from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp.

22 Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Irrigation withdrawals by state, 2010 #1 CA #2 ID #3 CO

23 Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Surface Water Withdrawals in Colorado, mgd 441 mgd 754 mgd 355 mgd 559 mgd 702 mgd 438 mgd 413 mgd

24 Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Groundwater Withdrawals in Colorado, mgd 1 mgd 130 mgd 157 mgd 141 mgd

25 Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Total Freshwater Withdrawals in Colorado, mgd 755 mgd 703 mgd 563 mgd 579 mgd

26 With global climate change As Temperature Evaporation will Crop transpiration Evaporation from soils Irrigation Lake Powell Evaporates ~600,000 ac-ft/yr

27 From Colorado s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board The Future Increased length of growing season Increased temperatures Increased evapotranspiration Earlier peak runoff and lower latesummer flows Increased water demand Increased vulnerability to beetle infestation Increased frequency and severity of wildfire Decreased water quality Decreased annual runoff Lower Streamflow Decreased overall water supply Recreation impacts skiing, fishing, boating Increased groundwater usage

28 Planning for Resilience Variability in P & Q The Gap Global Climate Change Increased T Increased variability USBR 2012

29 Options for dealing with resource scarcity Recycling Reuse Conservation Efficiency Substitution

30 Options for dealing with resource scarcity Recycling Reuse Conservation Use Less Efficiency Substitution?

31 Options for dealing with resource scarcity Recycling Reuse Conservation Efficiency Substitution Accomplish the same job with less Micro-jet irrigation on peach farm in Grand Junction

32 Options for dealing with resource scarcity Recycling Reuse Conservation Efficiency Substitution With another resource?

33 2016 Water Year Maps from

34 Current Snowpack 2016 About Average Above Average 2016 Maps from

35 Current Soil Moisture Green = Moist Yellow/red = Dry

36 Current Storage Maps from

37 v Temperature

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39 Looking toward a resilient water future for Colorado Thank you coloradomesa.edu/water-center Yampa River, June 2011, G. Richard