Assessment of Japan s NDC and long-term goal

Transcription

1 Assessment of Japan s NDC and long-term goal - Contributions of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) - Ken Oshiro Mizuho Information & Research Institute / AIM Project Team Japan-India Policy Research Workshop August 30, 2016 India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, India 1

2 Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/ adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages, developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Kyoto University, and Mizuho Information Research Institute in collaboration with several research institutes in the Asian-Pacific region. AIM Project Team provided the simulation results using the national end-use model (AIM/Enduse [Japan]) to the discussion on NDC. 2

3 Contents of Present AIM Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building,... Real World Emission Model Account model Enduse model Economic model mid-term target Other Models Population Household Material stock-flow future society carbon tax sequential dynamics low carbon scenario Transportation Land use Global Country Local/City IPCC/WG3 dynamic optimization Model World GHG emissions long-term vision AIM/Impact [Policy] feedback IPCC/integrated scenario Residential Agriculture Simple Climate Model temperature Impact/Adaptation Model IPCC/WG2 Agriculture Water Human health Global National/Local adaptation 3

4 Contributions to the MILES Project MILES (Modeling and Informing Low Emission Strategies) Project is convened by IDDRI On October 2015, the cross-cutting paper was published that focused on the (I)NDC of the 6 regions (EU, Japan, US, Brazil, China, and India). Members of AIM team: Mikiko Kainuma (IGES) Toshihiko Masui (NIES) Ken Oshiro (MHIR) 4

5 Objectives This study aims to assess emissions pathways by 2050 considering both the NDC and long-term goal (80% reduction by 2050) using AIM/Enduse [Japan]. Key points: Feasibility of Japan s 2030 target included in the NDC and key option to meet the 2030 tatget. Consistency between the NDC and the national 2050 goal that is to reduce GHG emissions by 80%. Robustness of the 2030 and 2050 targets given the uncertainty of nuclear power. 5

6 Overview of AIM/Enduse [Japan] Bottom-up of end-use sectors, hard-linked with energy supply sectors Recursive dynamic model Minimizing total system costs; capital, O&M, and emission costs Primary Energy Supply Oil Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Parameters Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Ocean Results CO 2 price Energy prices Emission factors Demand load curve Technical/economic characteristics (Energy efficiency, Capital/O&M costs, Lifetime, etc.) Energy/Climate Policies Energy service demand Energy Conversion Technologies Electricity dispatch module Final Energy Consumption Electricity Oil Coal Gas Heat Renewables Hydrogen End-use Technologies Industry Transport Iron & Steel Paper & Pulp Petrochemical Cement Machinery, etc. (Passenger, Freight) Vehicles Train Maritime Aviation Energy conversion modules Oil refinery Gas processing Coal upgrading Heat generation Hydrogen generation Residential/Commercial Space heating / cooling Water heating Cooking Lighting Appliances GHG emissions Carbon sequestration Sectoral energy supply/demand Share of technologies Additional total system costs Non-energy Industrial processes, Agriculture, Waste, etc. For more details: Oshiro, K., & Masui, T. (2015). Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan. Energy Policy, 81, doi: /j.enpol

7 Cases 1. No carbon price. 2. Implicit carbon prices are implemented to meet the NDC by 2030, and strengthened thereafter toward the 80% reduction by Compared with, higher carbon prices are implemented by 2030 to the level of around a half of No nuclear Without restart of nuclear power after target: 25.4% reduction wrt based on the NDC 2050 target: 80% reduction based on the national goal that considers the global 2 degrees goal 7

8 Assumptions on nuclear power Lifetime: Extension to 60 years for the plants built since mid- 1980s, 40 years for all others (excluding case) Electricity supply from nuclear power: 232 TWh in 2030 (roughly consistent with the assumption of NDC) 184 TWh in Capacity 350 Electricity supply Capacity (GW) Electricity generation (TWh)

9 Results: GHG emissions Both 2030 and 2050 targets are technically feasible without nuclear power, however rapid reduction is required after 2030 case results 29% reduction in 2030 (wrt. 2005) Carbon prices range US$/t-CO2 in 2050 GHG emissions pathways Carbon price 1,600 GHG emissions (Mt-CO 2 eq) 1,400 1,200 1, target 2050 target Case Unit: (US$/t-CO 2 ) 9

10 Results: Primary energy mix Energy efficiency and low-carbon energies are key options Share of low-carbon energies (): 12% in 2030, 59% in 2050 Innovative technologies such as CCS could be important options by 2050 Primary energy supply (EJ) Primary energy mix (direct equivalent) Renewable Hydro Nuclear Gas w/ccs Gas Oil Coal w/ccs Coal '05 '

11 Results: Electricity supply Renewables account for 23% in, 30% in Immediate- 80 in In 2050, electricity is almost decarbonized. Integration of variable renewable energies (VREs) is challenge after 2030 Electricity generation (TWh) 1,400 1,200 1, Electricity generation Other RES Ocean Bioenergy Geothermal Wind Solar PV Oil Gas w/ccs Gas Coal w/ccs Coal Hydropower Nuclear '

12 Final energy consumption Energy efficiency continues to be a key option by 2050 Around 10-11% in 2030, 43% in 2050 (wrt. 2010) Electrification is another challenge, especially after Around 28% in 2030, 46% in 2050 Final energy consumption by sources Final energy consumption (EJ) Hydrogen Heat Renewables Gas Oil Coal Electricity '05 '

13 Conclusions Japan s NDC would be effective to consolidate a transition from the baseline trajectory, by improvement of energy efficiency and deployment of low-carbon electricity. The 80% target by 2050 requires significant electrification in end-use sectors as well as the acceleration of energy efficiency and decarbonization of electricity between 2030 and The implementation of NDC is meaningful, however, rapid transformation of energy systems would still be required to meet the national long-term goal. 13