Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership. Appendix D

Transcription

1 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Appendix D Complete list of risks, strategies, and actions identified and prioritized for the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 1. Multiple species, including coho and Chinook, negatively affected by increased scouring of redds (salmon spawning nests), displaced juveniles, and loss of juvenile refuge areas goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement Protect existing habitat off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Reduce water temperatures 1 Water rights, s, All Space availability, s, Costs Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, of restoration projects via monitoring Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use councils Low Low High All Medium High Medium USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county)

2 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 2 2. Change in distribution and survival of native aquatic organisms, including invertebrates, amphibians, and native fish goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement Protect existing habitat off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, ALL Space availability, s, ALL Costs ALL Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, of restoration projects via monitoring of restoration projects via monitoring Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use ALL ALL councils (Water Resources Department) Low Low High ALL Medium High Medium USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county)

3 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 3 3. Broadening and subsequent contraction of fish distribution may leave fish stranded in disconnected pools or vulnerable to predation goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement Protect existing habitat off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, All Space availability, s, Costs Perceived conflicts btwn conservation, development, other land uses, of restoration projects via monitoring of restoration projects via monitoring Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use councils Low Low High ALL Medium High Medium USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) 4. Native salmonids and other aquatic species negatively affected by disease goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners USFWS, ODFW, NOAA

4 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 4 5. Impacts to all ages of salmonids, from warmer water, causing population declines goal affected: Reduce instream temperatures to meet salmonid requirements Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement (to maintain or reduce temps) Protect existing habitat off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, Space availability, s, All Costs Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use councils Low Low High All Medium High Medium USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county)

5 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 5 6. Exacerbated stress to fish from low flows and warmer water goal affected: Reduce instream temperatures to meet salmonid requirements Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat Improvement Protect existing habitat Reduce water demand off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Education and outreach on water conservation Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, All Space availability, s, Costs Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use councils (Water Resources Department) Low Low High All Medium High Medium USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) councils, municipalities, media, water districts

6 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 6 7. Greater demand for use of riprap and other measures to combat erosion goal affected: Reduce the adverse impacts of erosion and sedimentation from developed and developing areas Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners City planning, County planning, DSL (Div. of State Lands) 8. More resources and funds required by and partners to enhance estuary habitats goal affected: Assess, protect and enhance estuary and tidal habitats Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Expand organizational capacity Extend partnerships Write grant proposals Building capacity, greater community engagement Competition for potential money/grant funds Many different agencies, groups, private individuals, local businesses, and others Many different agencies, groups, private individual, local businessess, and others Expand capacity Many different agencies, groups, private individuals, local businesses, and others 9. Negative impacts to shellfish, crabbing, and fishing industries and recreational opportunities goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Near term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Limit nutrient inputs Farm water quality plans Impact on agriculture NRCS/OSU Extension, DEQ, Dept. of Ag (ODA), Soil and Water Cons. District Storm water management Cost of infrastructure improvements County level ordinance or rulemaking Domestic sewage - septic system improvements or upgrades Municipal sewage - wastewater treatment plant upgrades monitoring and assessment (for quicker response) City/County, DEQ High Medium Low County, DEQ Cost of infrastructure improvements Cost of infrastructure improvements City/County, private landowners, DEQ Cities and Districts, DEQ DEQ, EPA, ODA Medium High High

7 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 7 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the County TBD Actions to reduce GHG emissions Help meet state GHG targets 10. Lower survival of newly planted vegetation. goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance riparian habitat. Near term, high likelihood, high consequence. strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improve riparian planting survival Plant diverse species in riparian areas Replant riparian areas as needed Monitor riparian planting survival 11. Difficulty meeting suspended sediment targets and disruption of spawning and refuge habitat quality for juvenile fishes goal affected: Reduce instream suspended sediments to meet salmonid requirements Near term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, All Space availability, s, Cost Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, of restoration projects via monitoring of restoration projects via monitoring Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices councils Low Low High All Medium High Medium

8 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 8 Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Protect existing habitat Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) 12. Contamination of waterways and disruption to fish passage goal affected: Reduce instream suspended sediments to meet salmonid requirements Near term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improvements to infrastructure Identify culverts and roads most at risk of failure from high flows (esp. those culverts with insufficient capacity) Replace or remove culverts and roads most at risk Move/improve (lagoon to cistern) wastewater treatment lagoons (a few in Nehalem, Cloverdale) to reduce risk from overflowing Safety and access benefits Access to culverts and roads on private lands Cost, regulatory components, waste disposal/ management, land availability for relocation Cost, landowner participation, re-routing traffic, regulatory components NRCS, County, Cities, ODF, USFS, BLM, ODOT Wastewater treatment plants (special districts), EPA, DEQ, Tillamook County (as permitter) Municipalities, special districts, Oregon health authority, DEQ Medium High Low 13. Changes in FEMA designations, which in turn limit land use for agriculture goal affected: Improve farm management practices Near term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners DOA, USDA, FEMA 14. Lower dissolved oxygen and decreased survival of aquatic species goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, All Space availability, s, Costs Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses,

9 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 9 Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia councils Address warming caused by inline impoundments Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Low Low High Forest management strategy to balance water absorption Forest practices diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options All Medium High Medium Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Protect existing habitat Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) 15. Reduced ability of s partners to assess the health of salmonids via sampling goal affected: Assess health of salmonid, shellfish, and other aquatic species stocks Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners 16. Overdraft of river water and potential shift to groundwater use during low flow periods goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners 17. Spring Chinook eggs disrupted by higher peak flows goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement off-channel habitat Water rights, s, Space availability, s, All

10 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 10 Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Reduce water temperatures Costs Floodplain habitat restoration Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia councils Address warming caused by inline impoundments Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Low Low High Forest management strategy to balance water absorption Forest practices diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options All Medium High Medium Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Protect existing habitat Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) 18. Higher water demand for grass in summer, while supplies are already limited goal affected: Improve farm management practices Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Oregon Water Resources, ODFW, water rights inventory 19. Native fish less competitive against warm water fish such as bass, pan fish, and others goal affected: Reduce instream temperatures to meet salmonid requirements Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement off-channel habitat Water rights, s, Space availability, s, All

11 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 11 Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Reduce water temperatures Costs 66.2.c. Floodplain habitat restoration Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia councils Address warming caused by inline impoundments Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Low Low High Forest management strategy to balance water absorption Forest practices diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options All Medium High Medium Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Protect existing habitat Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) 20. More gravel deposits and downed wood, especially in areas with steep slopes, could have positive impacts to fish habitat in headwater streams, but risk in lowlands near infrastructure goal affected: Improve channel features to improve sediment storage and routing Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Identify and prioritize areas for restoration Habitat improvement Identify and prioritize areas for restoration Identify sites where gravel deposits and downed wood might enhance fish habitat Promote natural LWD jams and gravel retention in headwater streams Identify sites where gravel deposits and downed wood might enhance fish habitat Water temperature Land ownership Land ownership Land ownership USFS, BLM USFS, BLM USFS, BLM Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

12 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Higher erosion on agricultural lands, requiring more cover crops goal affected: Reduce the adverse impacts of erosion and sedimentation from developed and developing areas Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Individual farmers, ODA (they are required to plant cover crops) 22. Changes in species distribution use in estuaries (from changes) goal affected: Assess, protect and enhance estuary and tidal habitats Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Accept 23. Estuary protection and restoration are more difficult to implement in some areas due to development of barriers goal affected: Assess, protect and enhance estuary and tidal habitats Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Reduce impacts of new and existing development on estuaries Make recommendations to County and Planning Department for policies, related to new development, that support estuary conservation migration Replace/remove/remediate existing infrastructure and development vital to estuary conservation and ecological functioning over long time frames Lower risk to new infrastructure; potentially lower insurance s ; lower risk to infrastructure conflict between conservation and development Loss of property. conflict between conservation and development County/City Medium Medium Low State, Feds, NGOs 24. Changes in ocean-based prey, affecting salmonids, birds, and other species goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Limit nutrient inputs Farm water quality plans Impact on agriculture NRCS/OSU Extension, DEQ, ODA, Soil and Water Cons. District Storm water management Cost of infrastructure improvements County level ordinance or rulemaking Domestic sewage - septic system improvements or upgrades City/County, DEQ High Medium Low County, DEQ Cost of infrastructure improvements City/County, private landowners, DEQ

13 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 13 Municipal sewage - wastewater treatment plant upgrades Cost of infrastructure improvements Cities and Districts, DEQ monitoring and assessment (for quicker response) DEQ, EPA, ODA Medium High High Reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the County TBD Actions to reduce GHG emissions Help meet state GHG targets 25. Reduced ability of and other partners to successfully implement restoration efforts goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance riparian habitat Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improve riparian planting survival Plant diverse species in riparian areas Replant riparian areas as needed Monitor riparian planting survival 26. Declines in aquatic organisms sensitive to higher temperatures goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance wetl Near term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Identify and prioritize areas for restoration Restore wetlands and floodplains Identify areas and prioritize by estuarine and freshwater type. Freshwater wetlands expected to be more vulnerable under drought scenarios. Planting and restoration of wetlands with species that are better adapted to climate variability Restore floodplain connectivity for freshwater and tidally d wetlands and examine underlying s on hydrology Riparian restoration in stream related wetlands and water quality and water quality and water quality ly creates conflicts between conservation and development loss or conversion of ag lands All 27. Agricultural producers would need to increase restoration activities, reduce water withdrawals, and take more action to meet stream temperature requirements goal affected: Improve farm management practices Mid term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Oregon Dept. of Agriculture

14 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership More runoff and sedimentation of streams, as well as landslides goal affected: Reduce sediment risks from forest management roads Mid term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improvements to infrastructure Reduce wildfire severity Reduce miles of unmaintained forest roads by fully decommissioning (remove culverts, pull back unstable slopes, reduce landslide risk) Assess fuels across landscape (wetter coast to drier inland), as well as the potential efficacy of managing fuels Based on the results of the assessment, manage fuels for reduced wildfire severity while maintaining ecological values and function. Reduce future maintenance s Safety and emergency prepared-ness Access to private lands Access to private lands, Needs ongoing and continuous effort to be effective, fuels management not necessarily effective ODF, Private landowners, USFS ODF, USFS, BLM, landowners, Universities ODF, Private landowners, USFS Medium Medium Low 29. Changes in the distribution and extent of tidal habitats, including low salt marsh, high marsh, and mudflats goal affected: Assess, protect and enhance estuary and tidal habitats Mid term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Assess and manage for projected change Re-map estuarine sediments s Revise management units to protect estuarine fringe Accept loss of current boundaries Political challenges to revising management units Federal, state, local agencies, NGOs, general public Federal, state, local agencies, NGOs, general public Federal, state, local agencies, NGOs, general public Low Low Low 30. Changes in bird species and other wildlife, with some species losing habitat while others gain habitat goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance wetl Mid term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Assess and manage for projected change Restore wetlands and floodplains Identify at risk habitats, birds, and species Planting and restoration of wetlands with species that are better adapted to climate variability Restore floodplain connectivity for freshwater and tidally d wetlands and examine underlying s on hydrology and water quality and water quality conflicts between development and conservation ly creates conflicts between conservation and development ODFW, USFWS, NOAA, Audubon ODFW, USFWS, NOAA, Audubon County, state, federal, city, private land managers and owners, NGOs High Medium Medium

15 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership d flood damage and declining water quality goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance wetl Mid term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Identify and prioritize areas for restoration Restore wetlands and floodplains Identify areas and prioritize by estuarine and freshwater type. Freshwater wetlands expected to be more vulnerable under drought scenarios. Planting and restoration of wetlands with species that are better adapted to climate variability Restore floodplain connectivity for freshwater and tidally d wetlands and examine underlying s on hydrology ly creates conflicts between conservation and development Species may not be native to the region ly creates conflicts between conservation and development County, state, federal, city land managers and owners, NGOs County, state, federal, city, private land managers and owners, NGOs County, state, federal, city, private land managers and owners, NGOs 32. Reduced water quality and instream habitat quality from sedimentation goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Mid term, high likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improve understanding of risks related to wildfire, forest management and climate change Improvements to infrastructure Review salvage logging practices for better understanding of how this risk affects the region Assess fuels across landscape (wetter coast to drier inland) and manage appropriately Reduce miles of unmaintained forest roads by fully decommissioning (remove culverts, pull back unstable slopes, reduce landslide risk) Access to private lands ODF, Private landowners, USFS ODF, Private landowners, USFS ODF, Private landowners, USFS, NGOs Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High High 33. Regulatory consequences of not meeting salmonid temperature requirements goal affected: Reduce instream temperatures to meet salmonid requirements Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners 34. declines and difficulty meeting targets goal affected: Reduce instream suspended sediments to meet salmonid requirements Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Private timber industry, ODF, USFS, EPA, DEQ

16 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Higher risk of erosion and landslides goal affected: Reduce sediment risks from forest management roads Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Private timber industry, ODF, USFS 36. More culvert replacement and repair necessary, as well as more road maintenance, affecting many areas with unmaintained or legacy roads goal affected: Reduce sediment risks from forest management roads Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Assess and manage for projected change Assess precipitation standards for culverts and roads (e.g. 100-year storms) based on climate projections and review current standards Education and outreach to promote appropriate standards to all groups (landowners, agencies, Counties, etc.) Access during wildfire; Fish passage improvements; improvements Short-term disturbance associated with repair and upgrades state or federal agencies, Universities Land managers, councils Medium Medium Medium High Medium Low 37. More sedimentation from wildfires at upper elevations goal affected: Reduce the adverse impacts of rapidly moving landslides Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Monitor/Revisit because thinning as a restoration technique could be called for to mitigate wildfire 38. Bacteria from waste (esp. manure) flushed into the bays, affecting shellfish closures goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improvements to infrastructure Agricultural management Improvements to septic systems Improvements to stormwater (stormwater retention) Manure management, health, tourism, health, tourism, health, tourism, health, tourism Cost, landowners Cost Water rights, s, County, Municipalities, DEQ County, Municipalities, DOT, DEQ, ODA, DEQ, ALL DEQ, ODA High Medium Medium

17 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 17 Education and outreach on manure management, health, tourism DEQ, ODA Medium Medium Medium Limit nutrient inputs Bacterial DNA identification to identify source, health, tourism Cost DEQ, ODA Medium Medium Medium Point source identification, health, tourism DEQ, ODA 39. Reduced effectiveness of restoration activities in providing important habitat for fish and wildlife goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance riparian habitat Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improve understanding of risks related to wildfire, forest management and climate change Reduce wildfire severity Review riparian practices for areas affected by wildfire Assess fuels across landscape (wetter coast to drier inland), as well as the potential efficacy of managing fuels Based on the results of the assessment manage fuels for reduced wildfire severity while maintaining ecological values and function. Safety and emergency prepared-ness Access to private lands, Needs ongoing and continuous effort to be effective ODF, USFS, BLM, landowners, Universities ODF, Private landowners, USFS Medium Medium Low 40. Exacerbate current issues and push systems beyond ecological and functional thresholds goal affected: Improve floodplain condition Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement Large scale, holistic floodplain management to maintain and enhance complexity and function, flood abatement Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, 41. Damage to wetlands in forested areas, such as spruce swamp goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance wetl Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners ODF, USFS, Private timber industry

18 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Loss of wetland endemic species and specialists goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance wetl Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Identify and prioritize areas for restoration Restore wetlands and floodplains Protect groundwater sources Identify areas and prioritize by estuarine and freshwater type. Freshwater wetlands expected to be more vulnerable under drought scenarios. Planting and restoration of wetlands with species that are better adapted to climate variability Restore floodplain connectivity for freshwater and tidally d wetlands and examine underlying s on hydrology Riparian restoration in stream related wetlands and water quality and water quality and water quality ly creates conflicts between conservation and development loss or conversion of ag lands All TBD Water rights and use 43. Build up of manure due to drought goal affected: Improve farm management practices Mid term, medium likelihood, high consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners ODA, Health department, DEQ, others 44. Inundated areas s affected by infrastructure failure during king tides goal affected: Assess, protect and enhance estuary and tidal habitats Mid term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Assess and manage for projected change Using sea level rise study/ report, assess culverts, dikes, other infrastructure, and natural areas at risk Prioritize, replace, remove, and remediate based on the results of the above study. Could create conflict between conservation vs. development Tillamook County/Cities ODOT, ODFW, Feds, NGOs 45. Impacts to desirability of the region for tourist travel from water shortages goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners EPA, DEQ

19 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership s in algae, bacteria, and other water-borne diseases, which can cause human illness goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improvements to infrastructure Agricultural management Limit nutrient inputs Improvements to septic systems Improvements to stormwater (stormwater retention) Manure management Education and outreach on manure management Bacterial DNA identification to identify source Point source identification Cost, landowners Cost Water rights, s, County, Municipalities, DEQ County, Municipalities, DOT, DEQ, ODA, DEQ, ALL DEQ, ODA High Medium Medium DEQ, ODA Medium Medium Medium Cost DEQ, ODA Medium Medium Medium Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns DEQ, ODA 47. s in algae, bacteria, and other water-borne diseases, which can cause human illness goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improvements to infrastructure Agricultural management Limit nutrient inputs Improvements to septic systems Improvements to stormwater (stormwater retention) Manure management Education and outreach on manure management Bacterial DNA identification to identify source Point source identification Cost, landowners Cost Water rights, s, County, Municipalities, DEQ County, Municipalities, DOT, DEQ, ODA, DEQ, ALL DEQ, ODA High Medium Medium DEQ, ODA Medium Medium Medium Cost DEQ, ODA Medium Medium Medium Loss of riparian vegetation, warming water in ponds, misperception, landowner concerns DEQ, ODA

20 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Large scale die offs of certain tree species that are unfit for the new climatic conditions goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Long term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners forest diversity and resilience Replant with multiple tree species to preserve and enhance diversity Assess establishment and survival of tree species post-disturbance and over longer time periods to determine the most suitable species for planting Native versus non-native species issues Long term monitoring needed, federal and state agencies, Universities, federal and state agencies, Universities Medium Low Medium High Medium Medium 49. Negative impacts to the forestry industry from large and catastrophic fires goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Long term, high likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Private timber industry, ODF, USFS 50. Overall loss of available fish habitat reduces angling opportunities goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Near term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners ODFW, NOAA, USFWS 51. Forest managers required to protect more area from logging that removes roots, disturbs slopes, and increases risk goal affected: Reduce the adverse impacts of rapidly moving landslides Near term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners ODF, Private timber industry, USFS 52. d toxics from flooded contaminated sites and redistribution of toxic hotspots goal affected: Assess, protect and enhance estuary and tidal habitats Near term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners DEQ, EPA

21 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Reduced survival of riparian plantings near steep slopes goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance riparian habitat Near term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improve riparian planting survival Plant diverse species in riparian areas Replant riparian areas as needed Monitor riparian planting survival 54. Less shading and warmer water, reduced instream habitat quality goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Continue with current management strategies and monitor for changes Develop appropriate vegetation management actions if changes are detected Maintain Riparian ment Areas (RMAs) strategies Monitor for changes in vegetation Change in the type of vegetation used in riparian restoration activities NOAA NOAA All landowners, OSU Research, NOAA 55. Reduced water quality from sedimentation, nutrients, and bacterial contamination related to livestock goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance instream habitat Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Agricultural management Off channel watering Rainwater collection off barn/storage roofs for watering Animal exclusion fencing Promote (construct) livestock crossings at bridge/ hardened fords Riparian habitat improvements Riparian habitat improvements Riparian habitat improvements, ODA regulations and Farm ment Plans, ODA regulations and Farm ment Plans Infringement on use of ag lands related to nutrients and bacteria not addressed, Permits ODA, Soil and Water Cons Dist, NRCS ODA, Soil and Water Cons Dist, NRCS ODA, Soil and Water Cons Dist, NRCS ODA, Soil and Water Cons Dist, NRCS High Low Medium

22 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Impacts to native aquatic wildlife (especially fish) and vegetation goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat Improvement Protect existing habitat Reduce water demand off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia Address warming caused by inline impoundments Forest management strategy to balance water absorption diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Education and outreach on water conservation Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, All Space availability, s, Costs Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses, Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Forest practices Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use councils Low Low High All Medium High Medium USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) councils, municipalities, media, water districts

23 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Water treatment facilities shut down from too much sedimentation in rivers and creeks goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Improvements to infrastructure Reduce wildfire severity Improve land management practices in high risk areas Identify culverts and roads most at risk of failure from high flows (esp. those culverts with insufficient capacity) Replace or remove culverts and roads most at risk Reduce miles of unmaintained forest roads by fully decommissioning (remove culverts, pull back unstable slopes, reduce landslide risk) Assess fuels across landscape (wetter coast to drier inland), as well as the potential efficacy of managing fuels Based on the results of the assessment, manage fuels for reduced wildfire severity while maintaining ecological values and function Change policy on ground cover retention on steep slopes to increase cover and re-plant Safety and access benefits Reduce future maintenance s Safety and emergency prepared-ness Access to culverts and roads on private lands Cost, regulatory components, waste disposal and management, land availability for relocation Access to private lands Access to private lands, Needs ongoing and continuous effort to be effective NRCS, County, Cities, ODF, USFS, BLM, ODOT Wastewater treatment plants (special districts), EPA, DEQ, Tillamook County (as permitter) ODF, Private landowners, USFS ODF, USFS, BLM, landowners, Universities ODF, Private landowners, USFS Private land owners, USFS, BLM, ODF Medium High Low Medium Medium Low Medium Medium Low 58. More stormwater control measures required due to non point-source pollution entering streams goal affected: Assess and upgrade urban non-point treatment infrastructure Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners 59. Reduced beach and shore access for recreational opportunities restoration due to new armoring and other treatments to prevent erosion goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Tillamook County, Cities

24 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Simplification of riparian areas, loss of side channels for flood abatement and significant impacts to fish goal affected: Improve floodplain condition Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement Set back dikes to increase channel width and improve floodplain function, flood abatement Landowners expectations, remove land from management and taxation Landowners and granting agencies Large scale, holistic floodplain management to maintain and enhance complexity and function 61. Agricultural producers may need to plant alternatives goal affected: Improve farm management practices Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Agricultural Extension 62. Shorter agricultural growing season due to waterlogged grasses goal affected: Improve farm management practices Mid term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners DOA, Private landowners, Agricultural Extension 63. Higher densities and less oxygen lead to shifts in energy budgets for fish goal affected: Assess health of salmonid, shellfish, and other aquatic species stocks Mid term, high likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Habitat improvement (to maintain or reduce temps) off-channel habitat Large woody debris (LWD) to collect gravels for more subsurface flow and assist catching landslide material Floodplain habitat restoration Riparian plantings Stream channel restoration to create more channel complexity Reduce water temperatures Water rights, s, Space availability, s, All Costs Perceived conflicts between conservation and development/other land uses,

25 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership 25 Reconnect springs, wetlands, floodplains that can serve as cold water refugia councils Address warming caused by inline impoundments Balance water need with flow requirements for cooling Low Low High Forest management strategy to balance water absorption Forest practices diversity of habitat to create more salmonid life history options All Medium High Medium Loss of riparian vegetation and warming water in ponds, potential misperception, landowner concerns Protect existing habitat Protect existing healthy riparian vegetation, which provides shade Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use USFWS, ODFW, NOAA, Local governments (municipal, county) Assess and manage for projected change Develop/use models to view stream estuary conditions years out (for planning current and near future actions) Inform many other plans and projects Property/landowner concerns and rights, limitations on use and perceived use Model development Universities or govt. agencies Medium Medium Medium 64. More angling closures in recreational fisheries goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, high likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners ODFWS, USFWS 65. More marine/brackish conditions favoring marine organisms in estuaries goal affected: Assess health of salmonid, shellfish, and other aquatic species stocks Mid term, high likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Accept Monitor and revisit 66. Greater need for restoration activities for bays and rivers due to use goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Mid term, high likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Reduce visitor impacts to bays and rivers Education and outreach Can combine with other outreach efforts; brings visibility to councils, municipalities, media

26 Climate Change Preparedness Strategy for Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Economic stress to farmers from increasing inundation of agricultural lands with sea water goal affected: Improve farm management practices Mid term, high likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Agricultural management Improve drainage function of lower tidal wetlands through restoration, thereby improving productivity of upland agricultural areas Permitting, landowner participation,, offsite impacts (or perceptions of) ODA, Tillamook County, FEMA, ODFW, NRCS, NOAA, USFWS, Local govts. 68. d build up of manure from increased winter precipitation goal affected: Improve farm management practices Mid term, high likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners ODA, private farmers, EPA, DEQ 69. Declines in water quality and beneficial uses of bays and rivers goal affected: Promote beneficial uses of the bays and rivers Long term, medium likelihood, medium consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Continue water quality monitoring Reduce visitor impacts to bays and rivers Continue water quality monitoring Education and outreach to share water quality info with stakeholders and users Education and outreach to keep users away from stressed areas Difficult to affect people s behavior; no enforcement Councils Many education partners, Community volunteers Medium High Medium Medium High Low High Medium Medium 70. Loss of important riparian habitats for species such as birds, small mammals, insects, and amphibians goal affected: Assess, protect, and enhance riparian habitat Mid term, medium likelihood, low consequence strategies Actions Co-benefits Barriers or conflicts Partners Continue with current management strategies and monitor for changes Develop appropriate vegetation management actions if changes are detected Maintain Riparian ment Areas (RMAs) strategies Monitor for changes in vegetation Change in the type of vegetation used in riparian restoration activities NOAA, Farm Bureau, ODA, TNC, ODF NOAA, Farm Bureau, ODA, TNC, ODF All landowners, OSU Research, NOAA