SEEA Extensions and applications

Transcription

1 SEEA Extensions and applications Perspectives on environmental inputoutput modelling Joe St. Lawrence October 3 rd, 2012

2 Overview Material flows from a demand perspective Footprints Aggregation effects Multi-regional models 2

3 Overview Material flows from a demand perspective Footprints Aggregation effects Multi-regional models 3

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9 Emissions per household 60 tonnes CO2 equivalent w 91 pattern 0 1st quantile 2nd quantile 3rd quantile 4th quantile 5th quantile All 9

10 Emissions per million dollars tonnes CO2 equivalent w 91 pattern 0 1st quantile 2nd quantile 3rd quantile 4th quantile 5th quantile All 10

11 Economic and environmental measures of selected tourism industries, Canada 2002 Economic Environmental measures of tourism measures of tourism Tourism 2 CTSA tourism shares of Energy GHG GVA 1 industries Use 3 emissions 4 ($ millions) (%) (terajoules) (Kt of CO 2 e) Industry (1) (2) (3) (4) Air transportation 3, % 151,572 10,595 Food and beverage services 2, % 7, Tourism and non-tourism GHG emissions for air transportation and food and beverage services, CTSA - MEFA 2002 linkage Kt of CO2 equivalents % GHG emissions (non-tourism) GHG emissions (tourism) Air transportation 17.3% Food and beverage services 11

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13 Overview Material flows from a demand perspective Footprints Aggregation effects Multi-regional models 13

14 Domestic industrial emissions required for final demand 14

15 Domestic industrial emissions required for final demand and direct household emissions 15

16 National footprint from domestic consumption in the current accounting period including emissions abroad and from previous production 16

17 National footprint from the whole economy in the current accounting period including emissions from previous production 17

18 Emissions following IPCC guidelines (adjusted to SEEA requirements) 18

19 Integrated SEEA/IPCC accounts draft example 19 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (carbon dioxide equivalents) by Sector, 2008 kt Crop and Animal Production 67,617 Forestry and Logging 3,104 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 818 Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry 1,164 Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 120,656 Utilities 118,582 Construction 12,404 Manufacturing 110,548 Wholesale Trade 11,763 Retail Trade 7,953 Transportation and Warehousing 76,073 Information and Cultural Industries 1,130 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Renting and Leasing 19,029 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1,920 Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services 3,162 Education Services 311 Health Care and Social Assistance 2,352 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 338 Accommodation and Food Services 1,914 Other Services (Except Public Administration) 2,387 Operating, Office, Cafeteria and Laboratory Supplies 10 Travel, Entertainment, Advertising and Promotion 5,989 Transportation Margins Non Profit Institutions Serving Households 2,897 Government Sector 18,332 Household Heating, lighting and appliances 39,963 Household Motor fuels and lubricants 74,010 Total 704,426 IPCC/SEEA balancing items Waste 21,386 Prescribed burns 875 Household firewood use 2,000 Gasoline difference in MOBILE model 2,818 International aviation fuel purchases 7,583 HFC 5,500 PFC 2,200 SF6 670 Solvent use 340 Statistical Statistics difference Canada Statistique Canada 6,753 NIR total from Environment Canada 732,000

20 Overview Material flows from a demand perspective Footprints Aggregation effects Multi-regional models 20

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22 α g = 1.54, α x = 1.76, α fd = 1.44 α x / α g = 1.14 α fd / α g =

23 Emissions embodied in exports, 2007 (Mt CO2eq) GTAP producing industry ENV STD GTAP based on ENV GTAP based on STD Total oil and gas Electricity Transport nec Total crops Chemical,rubber,plastic prods Total livestock Petroleum, coal products Ferrous metals All other Total ENV = special environmental IO aggregation (extra detail for agriculture and oil and gas) STD = standard detailed IO aggregation GTAP = Global Trade Analysis Project database aggregation 23

24 Emissions embodied in exports, 2001 and 2004 (Mt CO2eq) GTAP producing industry Perdue GTAP StatCan IO Perdue GTAP StatCan IO Total oil and gas Total livestock Total crops Electricity Chemical,rubber,plastic prods Transport nec Petroleum, coal products Ferrous metals Minerals nec Air transport All other industries All industries Mt Mt

25 Overview Material flows from a demand perspective Footprints Aggregation effects Multi-regional models 25

26 Final destination of domestic emissions Source of footprint GHG emission related to domestic final expenditures by region, 2002 Canada US China Rest of world Total mt CO 2 eq Canada US 58 6, ,757 China , ,977 Rest of world ,922 22,908 Total 530 7,359 4,340 23,103 35,331 26

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28 Summary Linking of environmental and economic data can provide valuable alternative perspectives Defining analytical and data boundaries is very important Aggregation of heterogeneous industries must be done with care 28

29 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling: Our IO tables U F q primary primary V g

30 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling: model derivation Basic identity: supply = demand q + inv - + m = u + fd + x + inv + By substituting for market share (D=V/q) and technology (B=U/g), we get: g = (I - DB) -1 Df Allows an estimate of the gross production (g) required from each industry to satisfy a given final demand (f) based on predefined relationships of market-share (D) and technology (B) 30

31 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling: environmental vectors α = E/g α = 300 E / 300 g 31

32 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling: combining the two g* = (I - DB) -1 Df pe α * g* Greenhouse Gas Emissions (carbon dioxide equivalents) attributable to household purchases and consumption, 2002 kilotonnes % Indirect emissions Motor vehicles, parts & repairs 5, % Furniture and household appliances 3, % = Other durable goods 3, % Clothing and footwear 4, % Other semi-durable goods 5, % Food and non-alcoholic beverage 38, % Motor fuels and lubricants 15, % Electricity 43, % Natural Gas 7, % Other fuels 2, % Other non-durable goods 10, % Gross rent (imputed and paid) 14, % Restaurants & hotels 15, % Other services 39, % Sub total, indirect emissions 209, % Direct emissions Heating, lighting and appliances 41, % Motor fuels and lubricants 69, % Sub total, direct emissions 111, % Total GHG emissions attributable to households 321, % 32

33 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling Direct plus indirect energy intensity by industry, Industry α * = (I - DB) -1 1 Crop and animal production Forestry and logging Fishing, hunting and trapping Support activities for agriculture and forestry Oil and gas extraction Coal mining Metal ore mining Non metallic mineral mining and quarrying Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction Electric power generation, transmission and distribution Natural gas distribution, water and other systems Residential building construction Non residential building construction Transportation engineering construction Oil and gas engineering construction Electric power engineering construction Communication engineering construction Other engineering construction Repair construction Other activities of the construction industry Animal food manufacturing Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufactu Dairy product manufacturing Meat product manufacturing Seafood product preparation and packaging Miscellaneous food manufacturing Soft drink and ice manufacturing Breweries

34 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling 34 Direct and Indirect Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Year Direct Indirect Total Emissions per unit of expenditure megatonnes 1990= Direct emissions include all greenhouse gas emissions due to energy use in the home and for private motor vehicles. Indirect emissions are those business-sector emissions due to the production of the goods and services purchased by households. An estimate of the emissions from foreign companies due to the production of the imported goods purchased by Canadian households is included. Total emissions are the sum of direct plus indirect emissions. Source: Statistics Canada, Environment Statistics Accounts Canada and Statistics Statistique Division. Canada CANSIM Table

35 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling Water use by demand category, 2005 Including precipitation for Final Demand Water Intake forestry and agriculture Mm3 % Mm3 % Personal Expenditure 18, , Machinery and Equipment , Inventories 1, , Construction , Government 3, , Exports 14, , Total 38, , Virtual water content of exports, 2005 Including precipitation for Exports Water Intake forestry and agriculture Mm3 % Mm3 % Food (incl. accommodation and meal services) 1, , Other manufactured goods 9, , Utilities 2, , Other services , Total 14, ,

36 Statistics Canada s approach to environmental IO modelling 12,000,000 tonnes 10,000,000 8,000, ,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Use Availability Prompt scrap Road vehicles Aircraft, ships, locomotives Appliances, furniture, computers Construction machinery Miscellaneous durables Repair construction Packaging 36