Contribution of AIM (Asia Pacific Integrated Model)

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Contribution of AIM (Asia Pacific Integrated Model) to INDCs in Asia Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html Policy Research Workshop on How to enhance climate actions to meet a log term goal India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, India September 29, 215 Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages. The model is extended to assess sustainable development policies together with Asian researchers. iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ at the 2th AIM International Workshop in 215 Acknowledgement: This research is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Fund (2 142, S 6 1 and S 12 2) of MOEJ. 2 Emission Model Account model Enduse model Economic model mid term target Other Models future society sequential dynamics Overview of AIM Global Country Local/City dynamic optimization Model World Population Transportation Residential Burden share Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building,... Real World carbon tax low carbon scenario Stock flow IPCC/WG3 Life style GHG emissions long term vision AIM/Impact [Policy] feedback IPCC/integrated scenario Simple Climate Model temperature Impact/Adaptation Model Agriculture Water Human health IPCC/WG2 Global National/Local adaptation 3 Japan China India Korea Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Austria Netherlands PBL USA International Network of AIM National Institute for Environmental Studies Kyoto University Mizuho Information Research Institute Energy Research Institute, NDRC Institute of Geog. Sci. & Nat. Res. Research, CAS Institute of Env. & Sus. Dev. in Agri, CAAS Guangzhou Institute of Ene. Conversion, CAS Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal Seoul National Univ. Korea Environment Institute Asian Institute of Tech. Thammasat Univ. King Mongkut s Univ. Univ. of Malaysia Bogor Agri. Univ. Bandung Institute of Tech. IIASA Pacific Northwest National Lab. Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford Univ. In addition, collaborating with Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Taiwan,... 4

2 Asia Low-Carbon Research Project (S-6 of The Environment Research and Technology Fund, MOEJ) Collaboration with Asian countries Scenario Approach towards Low Carbon Society in Asia Policy makers Central/regional government administration Agencies NGOs Collaboration for developing LCS scenario and the roadmaps Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for Low Carbon Strategies Each country s domestic/local research institute Application and development to actual LCS processes Core research members and maintenance of study tools/models 5 6 Overall research procedure of our LC Society Scenario approach Area Base year Target year Covered sectors Actors/Players LCS target Quantifications of parameters: Population Final demand Transport parameters Energy service demand generation Energy device share Power supply assumptions Setting framework Qualification of Socioeconomic Vision Quantification of Socioeconomic Visions and GHG emission Trial and error to keep consistency and unity among Socio Economic policies and LCS targets Analysis of Alternative LCS scenarios and measures Design LCS Actions and Roadmaps from the analysis Demography Lifestyle Economy Transport Building Resource efficiency Energy strategy Power supply Evaluation of Scenarios / measures: Transportation system Energy service demand generation Energy device share Power supply options Renewable energy Carbon sink etc. 7 How to combine the tools in order to keep consistency and unity among Socio Economic policies and LCS actions AIM/CGE Tool for keeping macroeconomic consistency among supply, demand and resource constraints, and for estimating macroeconomic impacts. Economic analysis of LCS Institutional and logical design of LCS Extended snapshot tool (ExSS) Quantification of LCS scenarios LCS (Low Carbon Strategy) Tools Low Carbon Actions and Roadmaps An integrating tool of future economic, industrial, social and energy visions with mitigating options. Designing Snapshot of LCS visions AIM/Enduse Engineering A tool for people and and financial industry s demand analysis of LCS generation processes, technology deployment, and their impacts on GHG emission. Tools for connecting model outputs with LCS Action making process logically, and support designing, monitoring and managing the Low Carbon Strategy progress. 8

3 Summary Economy Population Education How to use time Assumptions of society in 25 Advanced Society Scenario (ADV) Accept the new social system, institution, technologies etc. positively and proactively. Annual growth rate from 25-25: 3.27%/year (Global) and 4.16%/year (Asia) Conventional Society Scenario (CNV) Discreet about the new social system, institution, technologies etc., and apprehension about their transition cost. Annual growth rate from 25-25: 2.24%/year (Global) and 2.98%/year (Asia) Total population in 25: 9.3 billion persons in the World, and 4.6 billion persons in Asia Education system will be improved positively. Education period: from 4-12 years in 25 to years in 25 Time for working and improving career will be longer. Education system will be improved normally. Education period: from 4-12 years in 25 to 8-13 years in 25 Time for staying with family and friends will be longer. Labor Full employment in 275 Fixed unemployment rate as of 29 level Government Efficiency will be Improved immediately. Efficiency will be improved gradually. International Gradual improvement in collaborative Reduction of trade barriers and FDI risks Cooperation relationships among Asian countries. Innovation High Medium Transportation Increase of demand due to high economic growth Gradual increase of demand Land use More speedy and more efficient land use change Moderate and careful land use change By Ms. R. Kawase (Kyoto Univ.) 9 1 Actions toward Low Carbon Asia NIES and other collaborating universities and institutes have proposed the 1 Actions to halve global greenhouse gas emission in 25 compared to 199 level. 1 Action 6: Low Carbon Energy System Using Local Resources (Energy System) 6.1 Promotion of sustainable local energy systems with renewables 6.2 Creation of smart energy supply and demand systems 6.3 Enhanced energy security with collaboration between low carbon energy sources and fossil fuels BaU Society Use of solar and wind power energy Use of hydrogen energy Incentives for introducing renewable energy Introduction of smart energy systems Introduction of demand response systems Introduction of power management systems Introduction of incentives for managing demand Enhancement of the efficiency of power supply equipment Use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) equipment Promotion of international cooperation Low Carbon Society Electricity generation in Asia [EJ/year] other renewables biomass with CCS biomass geothermal wind solar nuclear hydro gas fired with CCS oil fired with CCS coal fired with CCS gas fired oil fired coal fired 11 GHG emissions [GtCO2eq/yr] GHG Emissions in Low Carbon Asia 8 方策 Reduction 1 都市内交通 による削減 due to Action 1 (urban transport) 7 方策 Reduction 2 地域間交通 による削減 due to Action 2 (interregional transport) 方策 Reduction 3 資源利用 による削減 due to Action 3 6 (resources & materials) 方策 Reduction 4 建築物 による削減 due to Action 4 5 (buildings) 方策 Reduction 5 バイオマス による削減 due to Action 5 (biomass) 4 方策 Reduction 6 エネルギーシステム による削減 due to Action 6 (energy system) 3 方策 Reduction 7 農業 畜産 による削減 due to Action 7 (agriculture & livestock) 方策 Reduction 8 森林 土地利用 による削減 due to Action 8 2 (forestry & land use) 方策以外の削減 Other reduction 1 アジアの排出量 Emission in Asia (LCS) ( 低炭素社会 ) 世界の排出量 Global Emission ((LCS) 低炭素社会 ) 世界の排出量 Global Emission ((BaU) なりゆき社会 ) By Dr. S. Fujimori (NIES) 12

4 Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world How to realize Low Carbon Asia? How to implement each action/program? In Asian countries, some activities have already been implemented toward the LCS at their own initiatives. Sharing information among countries becomes important in order to realize "leap frog development" Training workshop on model at NIES ( ) Policy dialogue on mitigation target in Indonesia ( ) 13 Researchers introducing their countries activities at ISAP ( ) 14 Activities on INDCs using AIM Contribution to INDCs (1) For several countries, we have been discussing the model revisions and simulations with researchers in those countries. In order to share the information on INDCs among the countries and make presentations on our results to open to the public, we have several meetings and workshops. at the 2th AIM International Workshop (NIES, Japan; January 23rd, 215) at the Regional Forum on Climate Change (AIT, July 2nd, 215) at the 4th LoCARNet (Low Carbon Asia Research Network) Annual Meeting (Johor Bahru, Malaysia, October 12th, 215) At the 2th AIM International Workshop (NIES, Japan; January 23rd, 215), session: "Toward COP21 in Paris: INDCs" was. Japan Dr. Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) China Dr. Kejun Jiang (ERI, China) India Prof. P. R. Shukla (IIM, India) Korea Prof. Dong Kun Lee (SNU, Korea) and Prof. Tae Yong Jun (KDI, Korea) Thailand Prof. Bundit Limmeechokchai (SIIT, Thailand) Indonesia Prof. Rizaldi Boer (IPB, Indonesia), Prof. Retno Dewi and Prof. Ucok Siagian (ITB, Indonesia) Malaysia Prof. Chin Siong Ho (UTM, Malaysia) Vietnam Dr. Tung Lam (ISPONRE, Vietnam) Nepal Prof. Ram Shrestha (AITM, Nepal) Cambodia Mr. Hak Mao (Ministry of Environment, Cambodia) USA Dr. Jae Edmonds (PNNL, USA) iam.nies.go.jp/aim/aim_workshop/aimws_2/aimws_2_j.html 15 16

5 Contribution to INDCs (2) At the Regional Forum on Climate Change (AIT, July 2nd, 215), the side event: "Mitigation potential and target in ASEAN countries toward 2 degree target" was held. Indonesia: Dr. Ucok Siagian (ITB) Thailand: Dr. Tawatchai Somnam (TGO) Vietnam: Dr. Lam Nguyen (ISPONRE) Cambodia: Mr. Hak Mao (Ministry of Environment) Malaysia: Prof. Chin Siong Ho (UTM) Contribution to INDCs (3) At the 4th LoCARNet Annual Meeting (Johor Bahru, Malaysia, October 12th, 215), the INDC session will be held. Cambodia: Dr Hak Mao, Ministry of Environment Thailand: Dr Bundit Limmeechokchai, SIIT Thammasat Univ. Malaysia: Dr Gary William Theseira, NRE India: Prof P. R. Shukla, IIMA China: Dr Jiang Kejun, ERI Speakers are not yet fixed GHG mitigation target in Japan in 23 On April 28, 215, proposal on energy mix in 23 was introduced. On April 3, 215, proposal on Japan's INDC was announced. On July 17, 215, Japan's INDC was submitted to UNFCCC. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Renewables: 22 24% PV: 7.%, Wind: 1.7%, Biomass: % Hydro: %, Geothermal: % Gas thermal: 27% Oil thermal: 3% Coal thermal: 26% Nuclear: 22 2% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Nuclear Thermal (coal) Nuclear Coal Thermal (oil) Thermal (gas) Final energy demand Oil Gas Renewables 361 Mil KL (213) Renewables Share of power supply 326 Mil KL (23) Share of primary energy supply 19 GHG emissions [MtCO2eq] GHG mitigation target in Japan in industry commercial residential transport energy non energy CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 NF3 GHG emissions in 23: 1.42 GtCO2eq. 26.% compared to % compared to % compared to 199. GHG emissions in 25: 8% reduction (by the 4th Environment Basic Plan) 2

6 energy related CO2[MtCO2] Assessment of mitigation target using AIM (preliminary results) Energy related CO2 emissions reference mitigation actual GDP[tri. yen at 2 price] GDP reference mitigation actual Assessment using CGE model coupled with technology selection. GDP loss in 23 is 1.4% compared to reference case. Even in mitigation case, 1.6% of annual GDP growth will be achieved. Marginal cost in 23 is 26,3 JPY/tCO2. By extending the mitigation capacity through deeper penetration of options, the GDP loss in 23 will be mitigated further. 21 Preliminary results (as of April 8, 215) for Japan's INDC using AIM The Japan's INDC was discussed at the Joint Committee under MOE and METI by the end of April 215. In this PPT, based on CGE model coupled with simple technology selection, the CO2 emission reduction potential in Japan by 23 is introduced. Introduction of energy saving technologies is based on the previous discussion in 212. Scenarios Low economic growth.9%pa (21 23) High economic growth 1.6%pa (21 23) Nuclear /Low GHG mitigation actions L1 H1 Nuclear 4yrs/ High GHG mitigation L2 H2 Nuclear /High GHG mitigation L3 H3 Nuclear 6yrs/ Mid GHG mitigation L4 H4 22 CO2 emissions [MtCO2] Preliminary results (as of April 8, 215) for Japan's INDC using AIM CO2 emissions from energy use Level of Japan's INDC (CO2 from fuels) L1 (Low growth/nuc /Low mitigation) L3 (Low growth/nuc /High mitigation) H1 (High growth/nuc /Low mitigation) H3 (High growth/nuc /High mitigation) Actual data L2 (Low growth/nuc 4 yrs/high mitigation) L4 (Low growth/nuc 6 yrs/mid mitigation) H2 (High growth/nuc 4 yrs/high mitigation) H4 (High growth/nuc 6 yrs/mid mitigation) to '9 to '5 H1-3% -15% L1-15% -25% H3-24% -33% H4-26% -35% H2-29% -37% L3-32% -4% L4-36% -44% L2-36% -44% Level of GHG mitigation actions will have larger influence on CO2 emissions than the nuclear operations. 23 GDP [Tri. yen at 2 price] Preliminary results (as of April 8, 215) for Japan's INDC using AIM GDP L1 (Low growth/nuc /Low mitigation) L3 (Low growth/nuc /High mitigation) H1 (High growth/nuc /Low mitigation) H3 (High growth/nuc /High mitigation) Actual data L2 (Low growth/nuc 4 yrs/high mitigation) L4 (Low growth/nuc 6 yrs/mid mitigation) H2 (High growth/nuc 4 yrs/high mitigation) H4 (High growth/nuc 6 yrs/mid mitigation) GHG mitigation actions will loose the accelerator pedal of economic growth, but we will be able to keep growth. 24