Large-scale rollout of Concentrating Solar Power in South Africa

Transcription

1 Large-scale rollout of Concentrating Solar Power in South Africa Max Edkins Climate Strategies Side Event Bonn 5 June 2009 Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town 1 ERC

2 South Africa s LTMS Peak Plateau Decline Source: DEAT ERC

3 LTMS renewables extended electricity projection GW installed capacity % from CSP Existing coal Mothballed coal Super critical coal FBC IGCC OCGT liquid fuels OCGT nat gas CCGT PWR nuclear PBMR Hydro Landfill gas Solar trough Solar tower Solar PV Wind Biomass Pumped storage Source: Winkler ERC

4 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

5 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

6 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

7 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

8 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

9 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

10 Large-scale CSP rollout in the media Source: Lukey ERC

11 The four main CSP technologies Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel Dish Sterling Systems Solar Tower Source: renac ERC

12 Commercial Deployment globally Source: WRI ERC

13 CSP components Source: renac ERC

14 CSP Plant Design options Source: WRI ERC

15 Quantifying - what is large-scale CSP rollout? LTMS 27% renewable energy target by new build Source: Winkler ERC

16 Quantifying - what is large-scale CSP rollout? LTMS 50% renewable energy target by new build Source: Winkler ERC

17 Quantifying - CSP Costs = 2.4B ZAR/64 MW = 3.75B ZAR/100 MW = 3.9B ZAR/50 MW = 7.8B ZAR/100 MW = 0.6B ZAR/11 MW = 5.1B ZAR/100 MW Source: renac ERC

18 Investment costs Assuming cost reductions of 15% for every doubling of CSP capacity deployed For 27% target: ZAR Billion per year ( Billion US$) For 50% target: ZAR Billion per year till 2030 ( Billion US$) & ZAR Billion per year thereafter ( Billion US$) 18 ERC

19 Expressed in Levelised Electricity Price (per kwh) Cost estimates of CSP from literature (expressed in 2008 ZAR at and exchange rate of ZAR 8 to the US $) and projected avarage electricity price in South Africa 300,00 Sargent and Lundy, ,00 Solar Task Force, 2006 DLR, ,00 World Bank & GEF, ,00 100,00 CleanEdge & Co-op America Foundation, 2008 Prometheus Institute & Greentech Media, 2008 Eskom, 2008 Projected average electricity price (high end) 50,00 Past average electricity price Projected average electricity price (low end) 0, Year Source: Edkins ERC

20 Drivers for CSP rollout 20 ERC

21 Drivers for CSP rollout 21 ERC

22 Drivers for CSP rollout 3.3 to 5.4 times the total electricity requirement forecast for South Africa for the year ERC Source: Fluri, 2009

23 Financial Driver Since March 26th 2009 Renewable Energy Feed In Tariff (REFIT) in South Africa For CSP = ZAR 2.10/kWh (0.19 Euro/kWh) Overall positively received: 70% of stakeholders surveyed thought it was very and overwhelmingly sufficient. 23 ERC

24 Stakeholder workshop 45 Participants Government, CSP Developers, Industry, NGOs & Research Institutes - 3 discussion focus groups: Technology, Infrastructure & Industry support - International support & Indicators Survey 24 ERC

25 International Support Financial support most valuable (76% of survey respondents): Venture capital for CSP start ups Feasibility studies support Research support Grid expansion South Africa specific R&D Also technical support: South African demonstration plants Storage technology Industry supply base And policy & institutional capacity building support: Refine REFIT Managerial support to REPA under Single Buyer Office 25 ERC

26 Barrier highlights Technology Seeing is believing - need to complete 1st plant Need to import technology Storage requirement in REFIT Backup fuel Infrastructure Major grid expansion - Transmission Planning Study required - funding question Water ( m 3 /year) - dry cooling will have to be used 26 ERC

27 More barriers Industry Development great potential Investment risk Wrong branding by Eskom: test plant should become a solar industry development program CSP components - need planning framework for Industrial Development Zone Legal and Regulatory REFIT vs DME bidding process potential conflict Process for PPA exists, but PPA not seen yet EIA may pose to be an issue especially water use Eskom monopoly and lack of transparency 27 ERC

28 Intermediate Indicators Intermediate progress indicator GHG mitigated Not at all Not successful Somewhat Successful Very Successful Electricity produced from CSP Plants (kwh) CSP Plant licenses issued CSP Plants under construction Committed finance to CSP developments % of CSP in national planning process Amount of land and water rights committed to CSP development % of CSP developers engaged in South Africa % of CSP developers with offices in South Africa 28 ERC

29 Thank you! 29 ERC