STRATEGO WP2. Heating and Cooling Strategies. David Connolly Associate Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University

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1 STRATEGO WP2 Heating and Cooling Strategies David Connolly Associate Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg STRATEGO Final Conference Brussels, Belgium 12 th October 2016

2 Heat Roadmap Europe Creates New Data Tools Methodologies Results To Create Heating & Cooling Strategies

3 Aalborg University David Connolly Kenneth Hansen David Drysdale Henrik Lund Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Steffen Nielsen Ecofys Germany GmbH Thosmas Boersmans Kjell Bettgenhäuser Willemijn Pouwels Jan Grözinger Michelle Bosquet PlanEnergi Daniel Trier Daniel Møller Anders Michael Odgaard Linn Laurberg Jensen Halmstad University Sven Werner Urban Persson Daniel Nilsson University of Flensburg Bernd Möller Ole Garcia Wilke University of Zagreb Tomislav Novosel Goran Krajačić Neven Duić

4 Heat Roadmap Europe 1, 2, 3, and 4 Study 1 (2012): will district heating play a role in the decarbonisation of the European energy system? Study 2 (2013): what is the balance between heat savings and heat supply at an EU level? Study 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): low-carbon heating and cooling strategies for 5 member states Study 4 ( ): low-carbon heating and cooling strategies for 14 member states

5 STRATEGO (HRE3): From EU to National Level Thermal Atlas + Heat Roadmap for 5 Countries Czech Republic Croatia Italy Romania United Kingdom For Both Heating and Cooling

6 Key Recommendations for the Heat Sector Everywhere Urban Areas Rural Areas Heat Savings District Heating Networks Primarily Electric Heat Pumps Balance Savings vs. Supply 30-50% Total Reduction High Heat Density Areas Supply 40-70% of the Heat Demand Smaller Shares of Solar Thermal & Biomass Boilers Remaining 30-60% of the Heat Demand

7 Final Levels of Each Energy Efficiency Measure in the Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling Strategies Heat Roadmaps Heat Savings District Heating Reduction as a Percentage of the BAU 2050 Heat Demand % of Total Heat Demand after Heat Savings (vs. % today) Individual Heating Technology Primary Technology District Heat Supply from Renewable Heat & Excess Heat* % of District Heat Production Czech Republic 40% 40% (25%) Heat pumps are 65% Croatia 40% 40% (15%) recommended as the primary technology with 45% Italy 30% 60% (<5%) small shares for biomass boilers, and 40% Romania 50% 40% (20%) solar thermal. The exact mix of each 50% United Kingdom 40% 70% (<5%) technology is not optimised. 45% *Doesn t include excess heat from thermal power plants or thermal boilers.

8 Specific Map & Summary Report Available for Each Country Czech Republic Croatia Italy Romania United Kingdom

9 EnergyPLAN: Version 12 _ Hourly Modelling of Electricity, Heating, Cooling, Industry, and Transport Over 3000 Registered Users across more than 100 countries Lots of free training provided: Exercises with solutions FAQs Forum Quarterly online workshops User Manual Can be used to model any national energy system Freeware software

10 Change for the Heating, Cooling, and Electricity Sectors Change in HR Scenarios Heat Roadmap Scenario in 2050 Compared to a Business-As-Usual Energy System for the Year 2050 Czech Republic Croatia Italy Romania United Kingdom 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% Primary Energy Supply Carbon Dioxide Emissions Total Annual Costs

11 Change in Total Investments in the Heat Roamdap Scenarios Compared to Today (Billion ) Heat savings Individual Heat Pumps DH - Combined Heat & Power Solar PV, CSP, and Tidal DH - Heat Pumps District Heating Substations DH - Fuel & Electric Boilers Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Hydro District Heating Pipes Individual Solar Thermal DH - Solar Thermal DH - Geothermal DH - Industrial Excess DH - Thermal Storage Individual Biomass Boilers Individual Coal and Oil Boilers Individual Gas Boilers Condensing Power Plants Total Investments vs. Today All Five STRATEGO Countries Combined New & Growing Investments Declining Investments Status of Some Key Technologies in the Heat Roadmap Compared to the Ref 2010 Scenario

12 UK 480 TWh: Total heat demand in buildings 410 TWh: Potential Excess Heat Available (excluding nuclear) 65 TWh: Renewable Heat Potential in DH areas (excluding biomass) Heat Savings can cost-effectively reduce the demand by 40% (estimate) District heating can provide 70% of the heat demand, due to high heat densities (>100 TJ/km 2 ), compared to <5% today Not surprising: 80% of the heat demand is currently supplied by gas Heat Strategies Can Reduce: Cost: -10% Demand: -20% CO2: -25% Can Increase: Renewables Jobs

13 Interactive Thermal Atlas: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People) Heat Demand Suitable for DH 10 PJ/Year Excess Heat 50 PJ/Year

14 Key Messages: Heating Heat savings should begin today and be strongly supported to the point where their total heat demand is reduced to kwh/m2 In existing buildings while they are undergoing other refurbishments and in new buildings, Share of district heating can be expanded significantly in all countries Urban Areas Electric heat pumps are the most sustainable option for individual heating Rural Areas In all the countries there are large amounts of renewable and excess heat available, but there is a limited supply of renewable electricity, while there is likely to be a shortfall of biomass if the aim is to decarbonise the entire energy system. The results are extremely sensitive to cost assumptions, but the conclusions are very robust

15 COOLING

16 Demand (TWh/Year) Cooling a Major Part of HRE3 EU Electricity Demand 2010 Heat Demand in Buildings 2012 Heat Demand in Industry 2010 Cold Demand in Buildings

17 Key Findings for the Cooling Sector Today s Demand Future Demand Very Small (~10% of heat demand with only CY, MA, & GR >30%) Could Grow a Lot (Up to ~40% of heat demand with max of 140%) So, Currently a Local Issue So, Potential National/EU Issue

18 Cooling: Key Messages Today, the cooling demand is too small to have a major influence at national level However, implementing district cooling is likely to have a positive impact at the local level If buildings meet their cooling needs in the future, then the cooling sector will start influencing the national energy system More research is required to identify an optimal level of district cooling: mapping and local modelling is most urgent in the short term

19 Questions? How can we use this knowledge? _ Visit our website for more information