SSP process. Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi and many others.

Transcription

1 SSP process Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi and many others. 1

2 Scenarios play a key role in climate research WG3 Community: Scenarios provide insight into socio-economic and development in order to determine mitigation effort and cost-benefits of climate change : WG2 Community: Scenarios provide insight into socio-economic development (vulnerability) and climate change (impacts) Common scenarios WG1 community Scenario provide insight into plausible development of forcers and plausible climate futures Adapted from Edmonds

3 Scenarios as mean to link communities SSPs RCPs Climate Exposed population, ability to adapt Impact Drivers (population, GDP) Energy use, Land use Emissions Conc./ forcing Climate/ Environmental change

4 The Scenario Matrix Architecture SSPs Narratives Quantitative drivers Forcing level (W/m 2 ) Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 IAM reference scenario (e.g., SSP3-Ref) Climate information SSP4 RCPs SSP5 Socioeconomic information IAM SSP-RCP scenario (e.g., SSP3-4.5) Climate

5 Challenge to mitigation The Scenario Matrix Architecture Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 Challenge to adaptation

6 Challenge to mitigation The Scenario Matrix Architecture SSP5: Fossil fueled development SSP3: Regional rivalry SSP2: Middle of the Road SSP1:Sustainability SSP4: Inequality Challenge to adaptation

7 AIM/CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, REMIND- MAGPIE, WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP special Issue GDP Overview Dellink, Crespo, Leimbach et al. Riahi et al Narratives POP KC & Lutz Urbanization IAMbased SSPs Energy Bauer et al Land-use Jiang & O Neill Popp et al Model tables Aerosol/Pollutant Emissions Rao et al SPAs Mitigation scenarios O Neill et al

8 SSPs KC and Lutz Dellink et al Jiang and O Neil

9 Primary Energy Structure (five marker scenarios) Primary energy use (EJ) Baseline 4.5 W/2 2.6 W/2 9 Bauer et al. A) Primary Energy Structure (five marker scenarios) A) Primary Energy Structure (five marker scenarios) SSP1 IMAGE A) SSP1 IMAGE A) Primary Energy Structure (five marker scenarios) SSP1 IMAGE B) Primary Energy Structure (five marker scenari Oil & gas Coal SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM Non-fossil (renewables & nuclear) SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM Primary Energy SSP3 AIM/CGE Triangle Non-fossil (all IAM scenarios) (renewables & nuclear) Oil & gas Oil + Gas Coal Primary Energy (all IAM sc Oil + Gas SSP SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM Primary Energy SSP3 AIM/CGE Triangle SSP4 GCAM4 Total Final E Non-fossil (all IAM scenarios) (all IAM scen (renewables & nuclear) SSP Oil & gas Oil + Gas Coal Coal SSP SSP2 SSP4 GCAM4 SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE S SSP3 AIM/CGE Primary Energy Triangle Total Final Energy Demand (all IAM scenarios) Other (all IAM scenarios) 1200 LEGE 1925 SSP5 Oil/gas 1600 SS Hi Oil + Gas Coal 1000 PE Coal 1950 SSP4 SSP SSP2 SSP1 SSP4 GCAM4 SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE LEGEND missing 1925 SSP5 SSP colors (marker + rang 1900 History 600 line 1875 and dot 1850 B) B) C) SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP1 IMAGE Non-fossil (renewables & nuclear) Oil & gas Coal SSP3 AIM/CGE SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1000 Coal 1950 SSP4 SSP SSP2 SSP1 400 SSP4 GCAM4 SSP3 AIM/CGE SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE 800 LEGEND missing 1925 SSP colors (marker + range) History 600 line 1875 and dot 1850 PE structure (dark/intermediate/light) Renewables Coal 1950 SSP SSP Nuclear SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 SSP1 400 SSP4 GCAM4 LEGEND missing 1925 SSP colors (marker + range) History 1900 line and dot PE structure (dark/intermediate/light) Renewables Coal Nuclear SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE B) C) LEGEND missing SSP colors (marker 21 januari + range) 2016 History line and dot PE structure (dark/intermediate/light) Final Energy (EJ) Final Energy (EJ) PE structure (dark/interme Renewables Nuclear LEGEND SSP colors (marker + range) Add AR5 max/min line LEGEND SSP colors (ma Add AR5 max/m

10 Land area (million ha) Wide range from rewilding in the SSP1 to continious expansion of humandominated area in SSP3 10 Popp et al. 21 januari 2016

11 Sulfur (MtS) IAM range SSP marker RCPs Air pollution SSP3 SSP2 SSP4 Much wider range than in RCPs from high pollution world (SSP3) to clean air (SSP1/2.6- scenarios) Rao et al. SSP5 SSP januari 2016

12 Greenhouse gas emissions Riahi et al januari 2016

13 CO2 emissions 13

14 Forcing (W/m2) SSP5 SSP3 SSP2 SSP4 SSP1 2.6 W/m januari 2016

15 Scenario matrix architecture forms scenario tool kit Impacts/adaptation Mitigation Offers storylines and quantitative information for SSP3 SSP2 SSP1 SSP3 SSP2 SSP1 reference scenarios for: Further elaboration in impact research (consistent set of socio-economic data) Basis for new climate research (e.g. treatment of land-use, aerosols) Offers opportunity to elaborate scenarios in regional/sectoral studies Provides opportunity for mitigation ánd impact/adaption research in one structure januari 2016

16 Feasibility and costs of targets greatly depend on the SSP (Mitigation costs as % of GDP) SSP1 SSP4 SSP2 SSP3 SSP5 Forcing level (W/m 2 ) (1-3) 9 (7-0.12) 0.54 (4-0.54) 2 (2-2) 7 (1-7) 0.93 (8-0.93) 1.88 ( ) 4 (1-4) 0.15 (8-0.15) 3 (3-2) 1.33 ( ) 9 (3-8) 2 (3-0) 2.09 (7-2.79) 0.18 ( ) 8 (6-8) 1.40 ( ) 3.09 ( ) > <0.1 Mitigation costs are given as area under the MAC and percent of total GDP ( )

17 Special Issue Global Environmental Change Riahi and van Vuuren (eds.) (under preparation) Submission before Dec, 15! Planned finalisation April 16 Narratives: O Neill et al (accepted) Population: KC & Lutz (accepted) GDP: (1) Leimbach et al, (2) Dellink et al, (3) Crespo (accepted) Urbanization: Jiang & O Neill (accepted) 5 x SSP marker papers Crosscut papers: Energy (Bauer et al) Land-use (Popp et al) Air Pollution/Aerosols (Rao et al)

18 Next phase RCPs Impact research SSP database Scenario MIP Climate Model output Use in other communities Use in research projects Call for other teams to contribute Strengthened database

19 Questions? januari 2016