Production Sector Presentation

Transcription

1 Production Sector Presentation OORG-19 Washington, 28th March 2002

2 Production Sector Update Update on Controlled Substances Update on Transitional Substances Update on HFCs Update on non-fluorocarbon alternatives

3 CFC Phase Out (1) Developed world phase out complete, except Essential uses, basic domestic needs of article 5 countries Government pressure on W European producers to cease supply even for these uses. NL Minister s decision Little discussion of CFC black market in EU/USA Shut-down agreements in China, India. Russia shut-down Other ODS closure programmes under discussion CFCs in Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, Korean position? CTC in China

4 CFC Phase Out (2) Prices in Article 5 countries still very low steady and not expected to increase much in near term CFC $ per kg CFC $ per kg Effect of shut-downs on price is uncertain. CFC-11 transition remains faster than CFC-12

5 Carbon Tetrachloride The vast majority of CTC was used for CFC production and is disappearing automatically. Smaller quantities used for obsolescent solvent applications in the developing world. Production for process agent uses will remain a concern. More applications identified in India and China. Another problem is inadvertent production mostly on chloromethanes plants with significant disposal issues, e.g. incineration capacity.

6 HCFC-22 - Supply and Demand HCFC 22 remains the dominant HCFC for refrigerant markets Market for replacement blends increasing significantly in Europe and Japan (not in USA) Decline in dispersive use is currently balanced by growth in fluoropolymer (feedstock) uses, which is close to 40% of total production Key changes will be in Europe in response to tightening legislation Market - tight for a couple of years as new production cap bites, then expected to weaken by 2003 as new use controls bite and markets adjust 65% decline in use in period under Regulation 2037/2000

7 HCFC 22 - Bulk Prices European prices dropping to around $1.8 per kg and declining by a few percent. About $ per kg outside Europe depending upon package. Significant increases in availability of product from new sources, e.g. China, keeping prices down and removing pressure for transition outside Europe/USA

8 HCFC 141b and 142b Predominant markets are for foam blowing Phase out in Europe and Japan over the period Complex regulation with phase out almost complete by end-2002, final by end-2003 US phase out end-2002 for 141b, 2010 for 142b: Lobbying for an extension. Current production levels in Europe are around kte/yr Prices around $ /kg LDC production 3 plants in China, 1 in Taiwan, 1 in Korea

9 HFC 245fa for Foams Particularly aimed at domestic appliances Honeywell building a plant in Louisiana full production believed to be 18 ktpa - Q Central Glass (Japan) Planning 5-8 ktpa by 2003 Central Glass and Diakin have patented new manufacturing routes No signs of indicated price $9/kg lowering (require $4-5/kg)

10 HFC 365mfc for Foams HFC 365mfc may be significant for SMEs and Article 5 countries, e.g. for construction and cold store markets. Non-flammable blends planned to broaden market appeal Solvay Commercial plant opening H ,000 te/yr Indicated price at $ /kg?

11 HFC 134a - Refrigeration HFC 134a still dominant - continuing major market growth since 1997 still growing at 10% pa; IneosFluor, Du Pont and ATOFINA are the three large producers Global production at 130 kte/yr and expected to grow to 160 kte/yr by 2005 (up a further 18%) Increase in Italy (Ausimont) and (by 50%) in France (ATOFINA) China to start up in 2004 and reach 5 ktpa by 2005 Price has reduced to $ /kg

12 HFC Refrigerant Blends as HCFC Refrigeration Replacements Market for 400 series blends continuing to develop Relative market roles for different blends becoming clearer, R-404A, R-407C and R-410A seem to dominate R404A = 125/134a/143a (44:4:52) R407C = 32/125/134a (23:25:52) R410A = 32/125 (50:50) Thus the key refrigerant HFCs supplementing HFC 134a seem to be HFC 32 and HFC 125

13 HFC 32 Key ingredient of various refrigerant blends replacing HCFCs Great Lakes is currently the largest USA producer Daikin also produces in Japan and is expanding ATOFINA start-up in Spain in March 2002 and a major production in USA in 2006 Further investments are expected to meet demand

14 HFC 125 Key ingredient of the majority of refrigerant blends replacing HCFCs Honeywell is the only current significant producer and plans to double capacity in Geismar to ~ 20 kt/yr Ausimont has capacity in its Italian swing plant but is choosing to produce mainly HFC 134a. Have patented a new route. Diakin/Asahi/IneosFluor started production in 2001

15 HFC 134a other markets 20% goes to nonrefrigeration markets All growing steadily, but maturing Foam = appliances and faced panels MDI = Metered Dose inhalers Other Refrigeration Refrigeration Foam Misc. Aerosols Foam MDIs Misc. Aerosols MDIs

16 HFC 227ea Great Lakes already the main producer for fire-fighting applications Great Lakes joint venture with ICI Klea to produce and market pharmaceutical grade product (complementary to 134a) for MDIs DuPont and Solvay also produce

17 HFCs - Government Actions Some Government actions on HFCs and climate change (the easy 2% of the problem). Austria, Denmark and Switzerland have proposed HFC phase-out regulations EU Commission is drafting a Directive on Fluorocarbons Japan and USA pursuing voluntary approaches on limiting emissions through containment and recovery/recycling UNFCCC SBSTA will discuss information on ways and means of limiting emissions of HFCs and PFCs at its June meeting

18 HFCs - Summary HFCs still dominate the refrigeration market because of properties, price and availability; HFC 134a still the dominant HFC. Manufacturers are tending to expand their existing HFC 134a manufacturing facilities rather than build new facilities while the market develops and some uncertainty remains. New HFCs now coming fully into play in refrigerant blends (HFC 32 and HFC 125) after a long induction period. New manufacturing facilities are being constructed for HFCs 32, 125, 245fa and 365mfc. HCFC phase-out schedules worldwide will drive the development of further manufacture.

19 Non-Fluorocarbon Alternatives Hydrocarbons have become established in small refrigeration markets in EU and Japan. Not in USA. Considerable penetration in foam market, limited by cost/safety concerns to larger users. Some increased penetration expected in period. Markets will decide. Still a big gap between perception and reality! Difficult to obtain data on volumes being used/sold.

20 Conclusion The key to successful ODS phase out remains the cessation of ODS production Significant CFC reductions through recent closures in China, India and Russia - others are in progress. New products becoming established Hydrocarbons/liquid HFCs for foams gaseous HFCs for refrigerant blends Little information available on volumes of non- Fluorocarbon alternatives in use.