The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats

Transcription

1 The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats Jennifer Plunket Stewardship Coordinator North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve Carolinas Climate Resilience Conference, 2016 Session D: Integrating Climate into Conservation & Natural Resources Management

2 CC Habitat Vulnerability tool developed Tool tested and refined Tool applied in NE and SE

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4 Reserve Vulnerability Assessment Tool Spec. Sheet: Habitat based and site-specific User defined, local knowledge Climate X non-climate stressors Output management actions

5 Vulnerability Assessment Framework Heavy precipitation events Exposure: Sensitivity: Un-buffered stream edge Erosion, water quality issues Potential Impact: Vegetated buffer Adaptive Capacity: Complete loss of habitat VULNERABILITY: Fully functional habitat

6 Exposure and Sensitivity Climate Stressors Non-climate Stressors Invasives CO 2 Precip. Temp. Direct Effects Sea Level Extreme Climate N, P Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Current Condition DEFINED HABITAT AREA Contamination

7 Exposure and Sensitivity Interactions Climate Stressors Non-climate Stressors CO 2 Precip. Temp. Sea Level Extreme Climate Invasives N, P Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Adaptive Capacity Contamination

8 Assessment Process Local land manger Expert Elicitation Facilitator FWS biologist TNC biologist Guidance Document Site manger Land trust rep. Vulnerability Score Excel Spreadsheet

9 Pilot Project Outcomes Definition Clarification: HABITAT Ecological USFWS NWI: palustrine, emergent, persistent, regularly flooded Management Former rice impoundment managed by S.C. DNR for waterfowl

10 Pilot Project Outcomes Definition Clarification: CHANGE Ideal Non-functional

11 Pilot Project Outcomes Overall Vulnerability Very High High Moderate Low Very Low

12 Adaptive Capacity Pilot Project Outcomes Components of Vulnerability Primary Dune Scrub/ Shrub Salt marsh Long leaf Restored Marsh Primary Dune Impounded Marsh Flooded Forest Urban Marsh Urban Marsh Exposure-Sensitivity South Carolina sites are in italics Size of circle = 4(maximum certainty)- certainty score

13 Applications Rhode Island Question: Vegetation loss in marshes. What should (can) be done to improve resilience? Habitat Definition: Saltmarsh includes upper and lower salt meadow, transitional mixed class, water, bare ground, invasive, dominant, and upland border features. Management units were subdivided. Application: Coastal and Estuarine Habitat Restoration Trust Fund project planning

14 Applications New England Question: Relative vulnerability regionally, what drives differences, what is the state of knowledge Great Bay NERR Wells NERR Habitat Definition: site specific, but likely toward ecological Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Narragansett Bay NERR Waquoit Bay NERR

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16 Applications New England Question: Relative vulnerability regionally, what drives differences, what is the state of knowledge Great Bay NERR Wells NERR Habitat Definition: site specific, but likely toward ecological Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Narragansett Bay NERR Waquoit Bay NERR

17 Applications Southeastern Intertidal Marshes Question: Differences in projected SLR, geology, stressors, current condition Currituck Banks Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, may be some site specific variation Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Masonboro Island Zeke s Island North Inlet Rachel Carson

18 SLR Trends Duck, NC Oregon Inlet Marina, NC Beaufort, NC Wilmington, NC Southport, NC Springmaid Pier, SC Water Quality: Turbidity

19 Applications Southeastern Intertidal Marshes Question: Differences in projected SLR, geology, stressors, current condition Currituck Banks Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, may be some site specific variation Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration Masonboro Island Zeke s Island North Inlet Rachel Carson

20 Applications Murrells Inlet and North Inlet, South Carolina Question: Effects of urbanized edge Murrells Inlet Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, including oysters and mud, nursery function Application: Potential management actions, future policy guidance North Inlet

21 Resilient estuaries and coastal watersheds Where human and natural communities thrive 2011 Workgroup 2013 NSC Pilot New England NSC Transfer NC/SC NSC Transfer NERRS Science Collaborative

22 The Future Assessment team trainings North Inlet: Jan. 31 Feb. 2, 2017 North Carolina: Fall 2017 Keep in touch SC Lead: NC Lead: Hope Sutton, NC NERR,