Perspective of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 and problems in development of acrylic fiber industry.

Transcription

1 Perspective of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 and problems in development of acrylic fiber industry Zheng Junlin Secretary General China Chemical Fiber Association (CCFA)

2 Perspective of China Chemical Fiber Industry Performance in 2013 and Problems in Development of Acrylic Fiber Industry China Chemical Fiber Association (CCFA) 14 Mar 2013 CCFA Main Themes: Perspective of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry 1

3 Perspective of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 China chemical fiber industry performance in 2012 Dominating factors behind performance of chemical fiber industry Perspective of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 Stable operation with fast growth, though growth rate down Chemical fiber production in 2012 Output (kt) Y-o-Y Chemical fiber % Cellulose fiber % VSF % VFY % Acetate yarn % Synthetic fiber % Polyester % Nylon % Acrylic % PVA % Polypropylene % Spandex % Monthly output in 2012 Output (kt) Y-o-Y Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: National Bureau of Statistics 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% In 2012, chemical fiber output of China totaled around 38 mil tons, increasing by 11.20% year on year. The growth rate fell by 2.67 percentage points. Monthly output had stayed above 3,000kt, with a 10% increase of growth rate since September. 2

4 Chemical fiber import in 2012 (by variety) Volume (kt) Value($ million) Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Chemical Fiber % 3,077 3, % PFY % % PSF % % NFY % % Acrylic % % VFY % % VSF % % Spandex % % Total import volume of chemical fiber decreased slightly in 2012 In 2012, China totally imported 821kt of chemical fiber, decreasing by 7.23% year on year, and the import value decreased by 8.47%. By variety, import volume of acrylic fiber and nylon filament yarn account for 22.72% and 19.98% respectively in total. Export growth fell sharply in 2012, hitting the 2nd low in latest 13 years Chemical fiber export during 2000~2012 Export growth rate in Exp Vol (kt) Growth rate (y-o-y) 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% % In 2012, China totally exported 2,468.1kt of chemical fiber, increasing by 4.44% year on year, with growth rate down by 18.3 percentage points. China had been witnessing fast export growth of chemical fiber since 2000, except for 2009, during which export saw negative growth due to financial crisis. During Jan-Aug 2012, export volume had been falling year on year, mirroring sluggish demand in world market. 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% Growth rate Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nevertheless, the growth rate had been increasing since April, and returned to positive increase in September. 3

5 Major destinations for exports in 2012 Turkey 13% The US 11% Pakistan 10% Indonesia 6% Others 49% Vietnam 6% South Korea 5% Turkey, the US, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Korea are the major destinations of chemical fiber exports from China, the combined volume to which accounting for 51% of the total. Among the six major destinations, volume to Turkey, Indonesia and Vietnam is taking a significantly increased proportion, as a result of orders from textile market moving into these countries. Investment growth returned to normal level in 2012 Investment of fixed assets in CF industry in 2012 New projects Y-o-Y Projects completed (bil. yuan) Y-o-Y Chemical Fiber % % Cellulosic fiber & feedstock % % Pulp % % Cellulosic fiber % % Synthetic fiber % % Nylon % % Polyester % % Acrylic % % PVA % % Polypropylene Spandex Others % 120.0% 90.0% 60.0% 30.0% 0.0% Growth rate of fixed assets investment Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun Jan-Jul Jan-Aug Jan-Sep Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Jan-Feb 2012 Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun Jan-Jul Jan-Aug Jan-Sep Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Dec In 2012, the number of new projects in chemical fiber industry increased by a mere 3.69% year on year, while completed investment totaled billion yuan, up by 20.34% y-on-y, with growth rate down by percentage points. Investment in nylon industry increased fast, while that in acrylic and PVA fiber industries decreased sharply. 4

6 Industry performance in 2012 shrunk profit & expanding loss Million yuan Gross Profit Loss Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Chemical Fiber 22,527 31, % 5,067 3, % Viscose 5,799 5, % 1,710 1, % Nylon 3,331 2, % % Polyester 11,138 20, % 1, % Acrylic % % PVA % % Polypropylene % % Spandex % % Other synthetic fiber 1,038 1, % % *Pulp not included in viscose In 2012, margin of China chemical fiber industry totaled 22.5 billion yuan, down by 28.31% year on year, with a loss of 22.72% of industry total, and the loss value increasing by 46.81%. Acrylic and PVA fiber industries saw wide-range loss, with a sharply increased loss rate. Monthly profit in CF industry during 2012 Gross Profit Loss 2012 Y-o-Y 2012 Y-o-Y Jan-Feb 2, % 1, % Mar 1, % % Apr % % May 1, % % Jun % % Jul 1, % % Aug 1, % % Sep 1, % % Oct 1, % % Nov 3, % %. Dec 5, % % Million yuan, % Loss Rate Jan-Feb 30.76% Jan-Mar 30.36% Jan-Apr 30.56% Jan-May 30.76% Jan-Jun 32.07% Jan-Jul 32.80% Jan-Aug 29.06% Jan-Sep 30.05% Jan-Oct 28.75% Jan-Nov 27.39% Jan-Dec 22.72% Economic performance of the industry has been improving significantly since Q3, with profit growth increasing fast and loss remarkably decreasing on a month-on-month base. Loss rate of the industry also declined. According to statistics of NBS, the loss rate of the industry is 38.1%, with 8 out of 21 enterprises at loss. 5

7 Dominating factors Macro-economy Economic growth used to slow down, but is gaining speed now 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% China GDP growth during 2008-Q Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Growth rate of China GDP: 8.1% for Q1, 7.6% for Q2, and 7.4% for Q3, which is the lowest since Q The growth rate had been falling for 7 successive quarters since Q According to the latest data of NBS, the GDP growth rate of China picked up to 7.9% in Q4 2012, with the annual growth rate at 7.8% Dominating Factors IAV & PMI Industry: Industrial added value (IAV) of enterprises above designed size increased y-o-y by 11.6% in Q1, 10.5% during Q1-Q2, and 10.0% during Q1-Q3, with growth rate falling month by month. Nevertheless, the rate saw increase in successive four months during Sep-Dec. PMI: PMI in China had been falling all the way during May-Aug, with the index once bottoming at 49.2% in Aug, indicating economic recession. Nevertheless, the index had a constant increase in the following four months, with monthly index staying above 50% in Q4. 6

8 Dominating Factors Export value & FA investment 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Growth rate of export value (y-o-y) Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun Jan-Jul Jan-Aug Jan-Sep Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Jan-Feb 2012 Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-Jun Jan-Jul Jan-Aug Jan-Sep Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Dec Export: According to customs data, export value increased by 7.9% y-o-y for the year of 2012, with the growth rate down by 12.4 percentage points, while the month-on-month growth rate had been increasing, with the highest seen in December, at 14.1% Investment: Growth of fixed assets investment slowed down, with the growth rate at 20.6% y-o-y for the year of 2012, down by 3.4 percentage points year on year. The month-on-month growth rate had been increasing during Aug-Nov. Dominating Factors Less active demand Run rate of textile mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang during 2011~ Run rate(%) 0 4-Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-11 9-Nov-11 9-Dec-12 8-Jan-12 7-Feb-12 9-Mar-12 8-Apr-12 8-May-12 8-Jun-12 8-Jul-12 7-Aug-12 6-Sep-12 6-Oct-12 5-Nov-12 5-Dec-12 Run rate of looms was low, as fabric makers didn't receive many orders. During Jan-Aug 2012, run rate of the mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was much lower on a y-o-y base. After September, run rate remained stable at a higher level compared with the rate in Q From Jan to early Aug, trade volume in the Textile City of China increased by limited range y-o-y. Trade volume during Jun-Jul exceeded the same period of 2011, while from mid Aug to mid Nov, the trade volume was much lower y-o-y 7

9 二 影响行业运行的主要因素 Dominating Factors Slower textile export growth 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Growth rate of China textile & apparel export Export value (y-o-y) Exp. Val of chemical fiber (y-o-y) In 2012, export value of China textile and apparel products totaled $ billion, up by 3.32% year on year, while the growth rate fell by percentage points compared with in On the other hand, the growth rate had been inching up during Sep-Dec Chemical fiber had always enjoyed the highest growth rate of the whole textile industry, though had also been falling during May-Aug. After Aug, the rate inched up, but was very close to the industry average ever since October. Dominating Factors Fluctuations of crude oil and chemical fiber feedstock prices Price trend of crude oil/pta/pfy prices in 2012 Chemical fiber industry is vulnerable to fluctuations of crude oil value Chemical fiber enterprises face increasing risks brought by instabilities caused by crude oil volatility, as chemical fiber prices are directly tied with oil prices. For example, the tumble of crude oil value during May-Jun had pulled down chemical fiber prices, resulting in huge loss caused by inventory costs. 8

10 二 影响行业运行的主要因素 Dominating Factors Pressure from new capacities Investment growth slowed down, but pressure from new capacities remained great Polyester fiber projects commissioned in 2012 (kt/a) Company Capacity Startup time Product Shenghong Guowang High-tech 250 Feb PFY 250 Jul PFY Jiangsu Changle 250 Jan PFY Taicang Minghui 250 May PFY Zhejiang Wankai 400 Mar BGPET China Resources Packaging 600 Apr BGPET China Resources Zhuhai 300 Jun BGPET Guangdong Taibao 300 Jun BGPET Wujiang Xinmin 100 Aug PFY 100 Sep PFY Xiangsheng New Material 400 Sep PSF Fujian Jinlun 200 Sep PSF Zhejiang Shuangtu 200 Sep PFY Fujian Xindonghua 200 Sep PFY Jiaxing Longteng 200 Sep PFY Zhejiang Tongkun 300 Oct PFY Yizheng Chemical Fiber 200 Oct PSF Jiangsu Hongtai 200 Nov PFY Total 4700 Though investment growth of the industry slowed down in 2012 and construction and startup of some projects were postponed, pressures from new capacities remain great. Taking polyester as example: In 2012, 4,700kta of new capacities came on stream, including: BGPET chip 1,600kta PFY 2,300kta (incl. some that had only FGPET chip lines commissioned) PSF 700kta 二 影响行业运行的主要因素 Dominating Factors Cotton prices 用工成本 Cotton prices had been pegged at around 19,000 yuan/ton in 2012, providing a support to PSF and VSF markets. High cotton cost led more mills turn to VSF and PSF, while the wide price gap between China and overseas cotton prices badly deprived the competitiveness of China cotton yarn products in world market. 9

11 World Economy bottoms out and is gradually recovering with accelerating speed 三 2013 年化纤行业运行预测 U.N. The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 estimates world economic growth rate in 2012 at a mere 2.2%, and predicts 2.4% for Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Yellow Book of International Economy forecasts that the growth rate of economy in 2013 is likely to be flat from 2012, or with minor increase. IMF: World Economic Outlook predicts faster economic growth in world range after 2013, with negative factors getting out of the way. IMF estimates a 3.5% average world economic growth rate in 2013, higher than the 3.2% of Economy of China In mild rally, above 8% for 2013 In the central economic work conference at end of 2012, for the first time in the past 18 years the government put stability as the priority rather than speed, by emphasizing quality and efficiency of economic growth. China economic growth rate picked up in Q4, indicating a rally Industrial economic growth rate had been rising since September Investment growth rate rose in Q4 on a year-to-year basis Export value kept growing, hitting record high in December PMI had been hovering above the critical line of 50% for four successive months ever since October To summarize, economy of China has been stable-to-firm since Q3, with a mild rally in Q4. According to Development Research Center of the State Council, in 2013 China economy is expected to see slow growth in H1, and faster growth in H2, with annual growth rate above 8%. 10

12 Perspective 三 2013 年化纤行业运行预测 of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 Conclusions of CCFA: Chemical fiber industry of China has bottomed out since Q3 2012, and is in a mild rally. In 2013, chemical fiber industry of China is expected to see slow growth in H1, and faster growth in H2. Perspective of China chemical fiber industry performance in 2013 Detailed forecasts Market:The market is expected to be more stable in 2013 than in 2012, with slower growth in H1 and faster growth in H2. Huge fluctuation is unlikely besides seasonal changes. Output:Estimated at 41 million tons in 2013, with a 8% growth. Export: Estimated at 2.80 million tons in 2013, with a 15% growth. Profit: Gross profit of the industry estimated to see a 10% increase, with better performance of the industry. 11

13 Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry Where lies the market potential for acrylic fiber? Demand had been shrinking during world-wide, including China, but holding stable after Dominating trend or a temporary decline caused by economic woe? Main characters and applications of acrylic fiber Main characters of acrylic fiber: Resilience : second to polyester fiber and two times of nylon fiber, with 65% resilience rate when stretched by 20%. Fluffy and crimped, with soft touch and good shape retention. Tenacity: between 2.21~4.85cN/dtex, lower than those of polyester and nylon fibers, but times higher than that of wool. Thermal stability: Softening point at 190~230, ranked just below PES among synthetic fibers. Light stability: Losing just 20% tenacity after 1 year under direct sunshine, the best among all synthetic fibers. Main applications: apparel, upholstery and industry. Acrylic fiber resistant to acid, oxidation and many organic solvents, unresisting to alkali Acrylic fiber products Fluffy, soft touch, good warmth retention, good weather resistance, and mildew-and-moth-proof 15% higher warmth retention rate than wool, could be blended with wool, mainly used to produce hand-knitting thread, blanket, spot suits, tarpaulin, curtain, artificial fur, plush, etc. Acrylic fiber is the raw material for high-performance carbon fiber as polyacrylonitrile precursor. 12

14 Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry Where lies the market for acrylic fiber? Applications: blended with wool to produce hand-knitting thread, or made into blanket and carpet, etc.; blended with cotton, viscose fiber or other synthetic fibers to produce fabrics and indoor decorating materials; processed into lofty pure acrylic tops or blended tops with viscose fiber or wool, to produce coarse and fine hand-knitting threads. Consumption proportion in China: Apparel: about 70%; Upholstery: about 27%; Industry: about 3%. Consumption proportion world-wide: Apparel: about 60%; Upholstery: about 27%; Industry: about 13%. Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry Will carbon fiber take the leadership in development of the industry? 13

15 Global PAN-CF demand growth forecasted by Mitsubishi Forecast of PAN-CF demand growth word-wide in the major 3 sectors (t) aviation sports Daily-life By the year of 2015, world PAN-CF demand is expected to reach 73,000 tons, with 42,000 tons from daily life, 18,000 tons from aviation, and 10,000 tons from sports. Targets for high-performance fibers in the 12 th Five-year Plan Tons/year Capacity in 2010 Capacity in 2015 PAN-CF) PMIA PPTA UHMWPE PPS HT-HM PVA CBF In 2015, total capacity of high-performance fiber in China is expected to reach 160kt, ranking China as one of the leading fiber producers of the world. 14

16 Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry Where lies the competitiveness of acrylic fiber? Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry Could China-origin acrylic fiber compete in world market? 15

17 Problems in development of acrylic fiber industry How to carry out structural optimization in acrylic fiber industry? Eliminate out-dated capacities dry spinning? Merge and restructuring industry consolidation Enhance R&D increase competitiveness Thank You CCFA 16