Climate Change: Local Authority Activity

Transcription

1 Climate Change: Local Authority Activity in North East England Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator 18 Months ago. No detailed picture of how climate might impact the region No robust emissions inventory nor understanding of policy implications Economic implications of climate change for the region unknown? 1

2 The Bottom Line - what we need to deliver Enhanced resilience of our infrastructure, communities and business and natural environment to climate change Reductions in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of 80% - by 2050 Opportunities for competitive advantage and economic diversification realised Adaptation What is Climate Change Adaptation? measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities. Physical actions e.g: raising the height of sea defences Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings Building Adaptive Capacity e.g: Raising awareness of impacts Tools / context etc for decision makers 2

3 Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation New critical threshold Vulnerability Climate variable Critical threshold New coping range Coping range Past Present Lag Decision to adapt Future Implementation of adaptation Time Planning time horizon Slide courtesy of UKCIP What can we expect in the North East? Changing weather patterns Warmer, wetter winters Hotter, drier summers Reduction in soil moisture in summer Increase in high intensity rainfall events Polarisation of rainfall Higher incidence and severity of storm events Changes is biodiversity Changing patterns of public usage natural environment 3

4 Resolution Issues Does not consider: Altitude Topography Proximity to coast etc Gives: Broad, generic data Warmer, wetter winters Hotter, drier summers 4

5 Climate Change Adaptation in the North East 3 Data Resolutions. 3 Spatial Levels Regional Sub-regional District 5

6 Climate Change (2050s) Environment Agency Regional Weather Impact Generator Impacts 6

7 Earwig modelling Does consider: Altitude Topography Proximity to coast etc Gives: (caveat) High resolution Considerably more detailed Allows understanding of impacts at a level that enables ACTION Why choose the 2050s? Climate change is already happening Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it CC over next yrs due to historic emissions Within long-term planning horizons 7

8 UK CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 2009 Summer average temperature Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security NE England central estimate Medium emissions The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC North East Study C 16 8

9 For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases NE England central estimate Medium emissions Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher than +1% North East Study mostly ~5% up to 10% 17 For rainfall we see significant winter increases Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption NE England central estimate Medium Emissions Risks of national Infrastructure For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be higher than +32% North East Study 8 to 20% 18 9

10 Relative sea level rise (medium emissions, 50 th percentile) North East Study 30cm 19 10

11 NI 188 Getting started Public commitment and impacts assessment Comprehensive risk assessment Comprehensive action plan Implementation, monitoring and continuous review NI 188 Hartlepool, Newcastle, North Tyneside, Redcar &Cleveland, Darlington, Durham, Gateshead, Northumberland, South Tyneside, Sunderland Middlesbrough, Stockton 8 out of 12 LAs have NI188 in their LAAs The highest proportion in England 11

12 Mitigation What is Climate Change Mitigation? Reducing emissions of Greenhouse Gasses Reducing levels of atmospheric GHGs Emissions Trading Schemes Action on emissions e.g: Improving energy efficiency / process efficiency Renewables Reducing atmospheric GHGs e.g: Sink locking up CO2 in tree planting etc Sequestration removing CO2 and storing Mitigation Resource efficiency component: Emissions assessed Mitigation actions identified & prioritised Actions implemented GHG emissions reduced Decouple C emissions from economic growth Improved resource efficiencies realised Future liabilities reduced Future adaptation costs minimised Improved license to operate 12

13 Council Energy Managers workload Mitigation & Adaptation NI185, NI186, NI187, NI188 CAA Use of Resources 10:10 Climate Change Act Local Carbon Frameworks Nottingham Declaration North East Declaration Local Strategic Partners Earth Hour EEC, CERT, CESP, HESS Low Carbon Communities Grants etc, Carbon Trust Support, Energy Saving Trust Support ESCos Service Plans Procurement Local Development Framework Local Transport Plan City Region Agenda Green Economy Business Support Feed in Tariffs Technology Strategy Board Transition Towns Green Awards TRACE 13

14 Commits NE LAs to go beyond 20% reduction in GHG by 2020 The first Region in Europe to have signed Must develop SEAPs within one year Will require support to ensure delivery CoM Support Group formed Assisting in Baseline preparation and SEAP development Common Carbon Accounting and Scenario Planning tool first region in UK Equates to derogation of UK Carbon Budget first in UK Significant Challenge 14

15 We re getting the data we need to use it (wisely!) 15

16 "I was pleased to see the strength of the Climate Change Partnership in the North East, particularly the quality of the North East Adaptation Study. "The study tells us what we need to do to adapt in the face of dangerous climate change. This work and the commitment from many groups and sectors, including local government in the North, is very encouraging." Rt Hon. Hilary Benn, Secretary of State for the Environment We are already seeing in the North East the thinking, action and sense of purpose to deliver real progress on fighting climate change. Joan Ruddock, Department of Energy and Climate Change Minister, 2009 Contact Adrian Hilton, Regional Climate Change Co-ordinator 16