A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Transcription

1 252 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 DIN Gala Berlin November 29 th, 212

2 12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2

3 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3

4 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output 3: Industrial output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4

5 My perspective: A small and fragile world Source: KPMG, 21 J Randers 5

6 Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 29 J Randers 6

7 For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website

8 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 8

9 World population will peak in 24 Gpersons 1 % / yr 5, 8 Population ( scale) 4, 6 3, 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2, 2 Death rate 1, g database with slides Graph , Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 9

10 World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 1,$ / person-yr 15 6, Gp Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) World GDP ( scale) 4,8 3, , Gross labor productivity (scale ) 1,2 1.2 g database with slides Graph 3a Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity,. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 1

11 Share of GDP in investment will grow % 4 G$ / yr Investment share in GDP ( scale) World GDP (scale ) Consumption (scale ) g database with slides Graph Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 11

12 Energy use will peak in 24 Gtoe / yr 2 toe / M$ 3 G$ / yr Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) World GDP (scale ) Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 197 to 25 g database with slides Graph 6 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 12

13 Gtoe / yr 6,5 Fossil fuels will prevail 5,2 Coal use 3,9 Oil use 2,6 1,3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use, Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 197 to 252 g database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 13

14 World CO 2 emissions will peak in 23 GtCO2 / yr 5 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr CO2 emissions Climate intensity ( scale) 4 2 = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 197 to 25. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 14

15 Temperature and sea-level will rise ppm 5 deg C 2,5 m CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) 2, 1, Sea level rise (scale ) 1,.6 1,5.3 g database with slides Graph , Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 15

16 Food will satisfy demand but not need Gt / yr 12,5 Gha 2, t/ha-yr 1 1, Food production ( scale) 1,6 8 7,5 Cultivated land (scale ) Gross yield (scale ) 1,2 6 5,,8 4 2,5,4 2 g database with slides Graph 11, , Figure 6-1: Food Production World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 16

17 Enough land but less of it undisturbed Ggha 12,5 1, Total biocapacity ( scale) gha / person 1,5 1,2 7,5 Non-energy footprint ( scale),9 5,,6 2,5 Unused biocapacity per person (scale ) g database with slides Graph 12a, ,3, Figure 6-2: Biological Capacity World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 17

18 Average disposable income 197 to 25 (in 25 PPP $ per person-year) WORLD BRISE 3. China OECD less US USA RoW Residual Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 18

19 Main conclusion from 252 World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 252 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis World society will spend much money repairing climate damage after it has occurred - instead of spending it up front reducing climate gas emissions J Randers 19

20 Democratic decision making takes time COP 15 meeting in December 29 J Randers 2

21 What should be done? Globally 1. Slow population growth: Have fewer children, particularly in the rich world 2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels, first in the rich world 3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly energy system in the poor world 4. Temper short-termism: Establish supranational institutions 5. Establish new goals for rich society: Higher wellbeing in a world without growth J Randers 21

22 What is the role of standardisation? 1. Be a supplement to national regulation and supranational institutions in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 2. Help introduce solutions that are better even if they are more expensive than the alternative 3. Establish goals for energy intensity (energy per GDP) and climate intensity (CO2 per energy) and ensure systematic progress towards these goals 4. At all levels, just like in past efforts to increase quality J Randers 22

23 I don t like what I see! jorgen.randers@bi.no J Randers 23