T A O F C O PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030 PART B POST-2012 CLIMATE POLICY FRAMEWORK PART C PROSPECTS FOR NATURAL GAS

Transcription

1 T A BL PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030 E O F PART B POST-2012 CLIMATE POLICY FRAMEWORK C O NT E N TS PART C PROSPECTS FOR NATURAL GAS PART D ENERGY PROSPECTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA ANNEXES

2 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 1 IMPLICATIONS OF CURRENT ENERGY POLICIES 2 IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON ENERGY INVESTMENT 3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY AND CO 2 IMPLICATIONS OF THE 450 SCENARIO THE 450 SCENARIO AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL COSTS AND BENEFITS IN THE 450 SCENARIO 7 FUNDING LOW-CARBON GROWTH 8 COUNTRY AND REGIONAL PROFILES IN THE 450 SCENARIO 9 OUTLOOK FOR GAS DEMAND 10 GAS RESOURCES, TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTION PROFILES 11 OUTLOOK FOR GAS SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT 12 REGIONAL ANALYSIS 13 PROSPECTS FOR NATURAL GAS PRICING 14 OVERVIEW OF ENERGY TRENDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA ASEAN-4 COUNTRY PROFILES ANNEXES

3 Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List of Figures 21 List of Tables 31 List of Boxes 36 List of Spotlights 38 Executive Summary 41 Introduction 53 Scope and methodology 53 Principal assumptions 56 Population 56 Economic growth 58 Energy prices 63 CO 2 prices 68 Technology 68 Part A: Global energy trends to Global energy trends in the Reference Scenario 73 Highlights 73 World energy trends to Primary energy mix 74 Regional trends 76 Sectoral trends 79 Energy production and trade 79 Oil market outlook 81 Biofuels outlook 87 Gas market outlook 88 Coal market outlook 89 Power and renewables 96 Electricity demand 96 Electricity supply 97 New capacity and investment in infrastructure 102 Water desalination 103 Energy investment Implications of current energy policies 109 Highlights 109 Introduction 110 Implications for the environment 110 Global trends in energy-related CO 2 emissions 110 Local and regional air pollution World Energy Outlook 2009

4 Implications for energy security 115 Oil security 115 Natural gas security 120 Electricity security 122 Selected economic implications 123 Spending on imports 123 Export revenues 125 Implications for energy poverty Impact of the financial crisis on energy investment 135 Highlights 135 How the crisis has affected energy investment so far 136 Impact on oil and gas investment 138 Global trends and near-term outlook 138 Impact of the credit crunch on oil and gas financing 139 Upstream investment 141 Downstream investment 149 Implications for capacity are we heading for a mid-term supply crunch? 150 Impact on biofuels investment 151 Impact on coal investment 154 Overview 154 Impact on major coal producers 155 Impact on power-sector investment 157 Electricity demand 157 Power-sector investment trends and outlook 158 Nuclear power investment 160 Renewables-based power-generation investment 161 What role for government? 164 Part B: Post-2012 climate policy framework Climate change and the energy outlook 167 Highlights 167 Introduction 168 Greenhouse-gas emissions in the Reference Scenario 169 Trends across all sectors 169 Global trends in energy-related CO 2 emissions 170 Trends in energy-related CO 2 emissions in key regions 181 Sectoral trends in energy-related CO 2 emissions 184 The implications of the Reference Scenario for climate change 190 Greenhouse-gas concentration 190 Climatic consequences 191 The cost of delayed action 192 A global carbon budget to last a generation? 192 Energy sector lock-in 194 Table of contents 15

5 5 6 Energy and CO 2 implications of the 450 Scenario 195 Highlights 195 Methodology and assumptions 196 Overview 196 Greenhouse-gas emissions trajectory 196 Policy framework 201 Macroeconomic impact 203 Implications for energy-related CO 2 emissions 204 Contribution of different abatement measures to the 450 Scenario 210 Implications for energy demand 211 Implications for energy supply 216 Oil 216 Natural gas 217 Coal 218 The 450 Scenario at the sectoral level 221 Highlights 221 Overview 222 Power generation 222 Carbon intensity and CO 2 reductions in the power sector 223 Evolution of the generation mix 228 Capacity additions 234 Mothballed and decommissioned plants 235 Transport 236 CO 2 trends 237 Road transport 237 Aviation and maritime 241 Energy trends and fuel mix 242 Regional trends 243 Implications for technology deployment 245 Implications for transport industry structure and policy 246 Industry 247 Regional trends 249 Sub-sectors 250 Buildings 251 Regional trends Costs and benefits in the 450 Scenario 257 Highlights 257 Incremental investment needs in the 450 Scenario 258 Timing of incremental investment 262 Overall investment in power plants 263 Investment in nuclear power 266 Investment in renewable energy for large-scale power production 269 Investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) 271 Investment in biofuels production World Energy Outlook 2009

6 Investment in transport 274 Passenger cars 274 Aviation 278 Other transport 278 Investment in industry 278 Investment in buildings 280 Investment in fossil-fuel supply 282 Mitigation costs per unit of CO 2 reduction 282 Benefits of investing in low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency 286 Reduced local pollution 286 Valuing the benefits of the 450 Scenario 288 Investment in research, development, demonstration and deployment 290 Current status 290 Role for governments to enhance RD&D Funding low-carbon growth 293 Highlights 293 Introduction 294 Financial support for mitigation in developing countries 294 Overall level of support by OECD+ countries 296 Mechanisms for delivering financial support 299 Carbon markets and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 299 International funding pools 308 Financing issues for businesses, households and governments 311 Financing by businesses 313 Financing by households 314 Financing by governments 315 Country and regional profiles in the 450 Scenario 319 What is included in the profiles? 319 World 322 OECD+ 326 The United States (US) 330 The European Union (EU) 334 Japan 338 Other Major Economies (OME) 342 Russia 346 China 350 Other Countries (OC) 354 India 358 Part C: Prospects for natural gas Outlook for gas demand 365 Highlights 365 Projected trends in natural gas demand 366 Reference Scenario 366 Table of contents 17

7 450 Scenario 372 Understanding the drivers of gas demand 374 The relationship between gas use and economic activity 375 Economics of inter-fuel competition 378 The impact of technological innovation and climate change 385 Government policies and geopolitics Gas resources, technology and production profiles 389 Highlights 389 Gas resources and reserves 390 Classifying gas resources 390 Proven reserves 391 Gas in place and ultimately recoverable resources 394 Unconventional gas: characteristics and production technology 397 Tight gas 398 Coalbed methane 399 Shale gas 400 Gas hydrates 411 Exploitation of unconventional gas resources outside North America 413 Technology to exploit shale gas 413 Above-ground considerations 414 Long-term gas-supply cost curve 416 Special analysis of the production profiles of big gas fields 417 The world s largest gas fields 417 Production profiles and decline rates 421 Outlook for gas supply and investment 425 Highlights 425 Projected trends in natural gas production and trade 426 Reference Scenario Scenario 443 Investment and cost outlook 445 Investment requirements to Cost trends Regional analysis 453 Highlights 453 North America 454 Gas demand 454 Gas supply: United States 456 Gas supply: Canada and Mexico 458 LNG imports 459 Russia and the Caspian Region 459 Gas demand 459 Russian gas supply 463 Caspian gas supply World Energy Outlook 2009

8 OECD Europe/European Union 476 Gas demand 476 Gas supply 478 Europe s 2020 supply options 480 The Middle East 485 Regional demand and supply 485 Qatar 487 Iran 490 Other Middle East 494 Africa 497 Asia-Pacific 501 Latin America Prospects for natural gas pricing 507 Highlights 507 Gas pricing along the supply chain 508 North America: what will drive gas prices? 509 Continental Europe: what role for gas-on-gas competition? 515 Asia-Pacific: how will pricing evolve in the main importing countries? 520 Rest of the World: will price-setting become more market-based? 524 LNG trade and the prospects for regional gas market convergence 525 Contractual arrangements: more flexibility in prospect 526 Spot trade: renewed growth or consolidation? 527 LNG as a driver of regional gas market integration 531 Part D: Energy prospects in Southeast Asia Overview of energy trends in Southeast Asia 535 Highlights 535 ASEAN energy overview 536 Principal assumptions 539 Economic growth 539 Population 541 Energy pricing and subsidies 542 The Reference Scenario 543 Energy demand 543 Oil supply 548 Natural gas supply 552 Coal supply 555 Power sector 556 Renewables supply 562 Energy-related CO 2 emissions and local pollution 563 Energy investment 565 The 450 Scenario 566 Energy demand 567 Table of contents 19

9 Energy-related CO 2 emissions 568 Incremental investment and co-benefits 569 ASEAN energy co-operation 570 The ASEAN Power Grid 572 The Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline 574 ASEAN oil security Chapter 16: ASEAN-4 country profiles 581 Highlights 581 Indonesia 582 Overview and assumptions 582 Energy policy 583 Energy demand 585 Oil supply 588 Natural gas supply 589 Coal supply 590 Electricity generation 592 Climate change and local pollution 593 Thailand 593 Overview and assumptions 593 Energy policy 595 Energy demand 597 Oil supply 599 Natural gas supply 600 Coal supply 600 Electricity generation 600 Climate change and local pollution 601 Malaysia 601 Overview and assumptions 601 Energy policy 603 Energy demand 604 Oil supply 606 Natural gas supply 607 Coal supply 609 Electricity generation 609 Climate change and local pollution 610 Philippines 611 Overview and assumptions 611 Energy policy 612 Energy demand 614 Oil supply 615 Natural gas supply 616 Coal supply 616 Electricity generation 616 Climate change and local pollution World Energy Outlook 2009

10 ANNEXES Annex A. Tables for Reference Scenario projections 621 Annex B. Sensitivity analysis 659 Annex C. Abbreviations, definitions and conversion factors 665 Annex D. Acronyms 675 Annex E. References 679 List of figures Introduction 1 Population by major region 58 2 Primary energy demand and GDP, Per-capita income by region 63 4 Average IEA crude oil import price 65 5 Ratio of natural gas and coal prices to crude oil in the Reference Scenario 67 Part A: Global energy trends to 2030 Chapter 1. Global energy trends in the Reference Scenario 1.1 World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Incremental primary energy demand by fuel and region in the Reference Scenario Per-capita primary energy demand by region in the Reference Scenario World final energy consumption by fuel and sector in the Reference Scenario World fossil-energy production by region in the Reference Scenario Change in primary oil demand by region and sector in the Reference Scenario Passenger light-duty vehicle fleet and ownership rates in key regions in the Reference Scenario Oil production by source in the Reference Scenario Non-OPEC oil production and the oil price in the three oil shocks Biofuels demand by region in the Reference Scenario Primary natural gas demand by region in the Reference Scenario Incremental coal production by type and region in the Reference Scenario Coal supply cash-cost curve for internationally traded steam coal for 2008 and average FOB prices for 2008 and first-half World electricity generation by fuel in the Reference Scenario Coal-fired power-generation capacity under construction by country Installed nuclear power-generation capacity by region in the Reference Scenario Share of renewables in electricity generation by region in the Reference Scenario Power-generation capacity additions by region, Table of contents 21

11 1.19 Electricity generation from combined water and power plants in North Africa and the Middle East Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure in the Reference Scenario, Share of energy investment in GDP by region in the Reference Scenario, Chapter 2. Implications of current energy policies 2.1 Energy-related CO 2 emissions by fuel and region in the Reference Scenario World energy-related CO 2 emissions in WEO-2009 and WEO Dependence on net imports of oil by major country/region in the Reference Scenario Dependence on net imports of natural gas by country/region in the Reference Scenario Expenditure on net imports of oil and gas as a share of GDP at market exchange rates in the Reference Scenario Annual expenditure on net imports of oil and gas in the Reference Scenario Cumulative oil and gas export revenues in the Reference Scenario for selected key exporters Oil and gas export revenues as a share of GDP at market exchange rates for selected producers in the Reference Scenario Electrification rates and population without access to electricity, Number of people without access to electricity in the Reference Scenario Incremental electricity generation and investment in the Universal Electricity Access Case, Chapter 3. Impact of the financial crisis on energy investment 3.1 Worldwide upstream capital expenditures Worldwide upstream capital expenditures by type of company Exploration and development capital spending and average nominal IEA crude oil import price Global asset financing of bio-refineries Status of ethanol plants in Brazil Historical world electricity consumption Global investment in new renewables-based power-generation assets Venture capital and private equity new investment in clean energy companies, Global orders for wind turbines 163 Part B: Post-2012 climate policy framework Chapter 4. Climate change and the energy outlook 4.1 World anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions by source, World anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions by source in the Reference Scenario World Energy Outlook 2009

12 4.3 Historical link between energy-related CO 2 emissions and economic output, and the pathway to achieving a 450 Scenario Green energy components of the G20 stimulus packages, Emissions of energy-related CO 2 in 2020 in the Reference Scenario and reductions if OECD countries meet their emissions targets Per-capita energy-related CO 2 emissions in the Reference Scenario Energy-related CO 2 intensity and GDP per-capita, Share of global annual and cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions since 1890 in the Reference Scenario Cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions since 1890 in the Reference Scenario Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region in the Reference Scenario How the European Union complies with its EU ETS cap in the Reference Scenario China s energy-related CO 2 emissions in the Reference Scenario World energy-related CO 2 emissions from the power sector and CO 2 intensity of power plants in the Reference Scenario World low-carbon electricity generation in the Reference Scenario Average CO 2 intensity of new LDVs by region in the Reference Scenario Industry energy-related CO 2 emissions by sub-sector in the Reference Scenario Long-term concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases resulting from the Reference Scenario Comparison of the Reference Scenario emissions trajectory with relevant studies assessed by the IPCC Cumulative CO 2 emissions by scenario compared to various budgets 193 Chapter 5. Energy and CO 2 implications of the 450 Scenario 5.1 Greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories by scenario World greenhouse-gas emissions by type in the 450 Scenario Policy framework in the 450 Scenario Abatement by policy type in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, Energy-related CO 2 emission reductions by region and sector in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario, Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region in the 450 Scenario Per-capita energy-related CO 2 emissions in selected countries in the 450 Scenario World energy-related CO 2 emission savings by policy measure in the 450 Scenario World primary energy demand by fuel in the 450 Scenario Biofuels demand by type and scenario World electricity generation from non-hydro renewables by type in the 450 Scenario Incremental world electricity demand by sector and scenario, Table of contents 23

13 5.13 Net oil imports in selected regions by scenario Cumulative OPEC oil-export revenues by scenario Change in coal production by scenario and region 219 Chapter 6. The 450 Scenario at the sectoral level 6.1 Change in energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector and region in the 450 Scenario relative to 2007 levels Change in world energy-related CO 2 emissions from the power generation sector in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario CO 2 intensity of electricity power plants CO 2 emission savings by type in the power generation sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the 2007 fuel mix for selected countries Average long-run marginal cost (LRMC) of selected power-generation technologies in OECD+, with and without a CO 2 price Electricity generation by type for selected countries in the Reference and 450 Scenarios World installed coal capacity and retirements/mothballing in the 450 Scenario Regional coal-fired electricity generation by plant type and scenario Energy-related CO 2 emission reductions in transport by sub-sector in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario Share of global passenger vehicle sales by engine technology and scenario CO 2 emissions per kilometre by vehicle type and scenario Share of global PLDV sales in 2007 and 2030 in the Reference and 450 Scenarios Regional fuel consumption in road transport by fuel type and scenario Share of PLDV sales by vehicle type for selected regions in the 450 Scenario World industry energy consumption and energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario World average annual change in energy-related CO 2 emissions in industry by type and scenario Change in OECD+ energy demand by end use in residential sector in 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Change in energy-related CO 2 emissions in buildings by scenario in Other Major Economies, Chapter 7. Costs and benefits in the 450 Scenario 7.1 Cumulative additional investment needs by sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, Cumulative incremental investment and CO 2 savings in by country/region in the 450 Scenario, relative to the Reference Scenario Global annual incremental investment and CO 2 savings in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2009

14 7.4 Cumulative incremental investment in , by sector and region in the 450 Scenario, relative to the Reference Scenario Total global investment in renewables, nuclear, CCS and fossil fuels for the power generation in the 450 Scenario Current estimates of overnight project costs of planned nuclear power plants in the United States Annual investment in renewables for large-scale power generation in the 450 Scenario Investment in biofuels production by scenario, Cumulative incremental investment in transport by mode in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Maximum potential and incremental costs of vehicle technologies for fuel savings compared with a year-2000 gasoline ICE car Cumulative incremental investment in industry in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, Cumulative investment in fossil-fuel supply by fuel and scenario Mitigation costs of CO 2 reductions in 2030 in the 450 Scenario, relative to the Reference Scenario Mitigation costs and associated CO 2 reductions by power-generation technology in 2030 in the 450 Scenario, relative to the Reference Scenario Incremental investment needs and fuel-cost savings for industry, buildings and transport in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Oil and gas import bills in selected countries/regions by scenario Annual air pollution control costs by region and scenario IEA government spending on energy research, development and demonstration 291 Chapter 8. Funding low-carbon growth 8.1 Global carbon market trading volumes and values Share of CDM emissions reduction by type of project, Carbon trade and CO 2 price for power generation and industry under different levels of financing by OECD+ countries in Potential suppliers of carbon credits given eligibility of 1.2 Gt of non- OECD abatement in power generation and industry in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Abatement costs incurred by OECD+ and non-oecd in the carbon market for power generation and industry under different levels of financing by OECD+ countries Share of power generation output by status of utility, Global additional investments in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario by sector in 2020 based on current capital ownership Global additional investments in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario by sector based on current capital ownership 312 Table of contents 25

15 Chapter 9: Country and regional profiles in the 450 Scenario 9.1 World energy-related CO 2 emissions World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement World power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario World share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario World additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario OECD+ energy-related CO 2 emissions OECD+ energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement OECD+ power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario OECD+ share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario OECD+ additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario US energy-related CO 2 emissions US energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement US power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario US share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario US additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario EU energy-related CO 2 emissions EU energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement EU power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario EU share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario EU additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Japan energy-related CO 2 emissions Japan energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement Japan power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario Japan share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario Japan additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario OME energy-related CO 2 emissions OME energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement OME power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario OME share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario OME additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Russia energy-related CO 2 emissions Russia energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement Russia power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario World Energy Outlook 2009

16 9.34 Russia share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario Russia additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario China energy-related CO 2 emissions China energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement China power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario China share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario China additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario OC energy-related CO 2 emissions OC energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement OC power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario OC share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario OC additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario India energy-related CO 2 emissions India energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement India power-generation capacity in the 450 Scenario India share of passenger vehicle sales by technology and average new vehicle on-road CO 2 intensity in the 450 Scenario India additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario 361 Part C: Prospects for natural gas Chapter 10. Outlook for gas demand 10.1 Year-on-year change in world primary natural gas demand by major region Primary natural gas demand by region in the Reference Scenario World primary natural gas demand by sector in the Reference Scenario Incremental primary natural gas demand by region and sector in the Reference Scenario, Change in primary natural gas demand by sector and region in the 450 Scenario versus the Reference Scenario, Natural gas intensity by scenario and region World primary natural gas demand versus GDP by sector and scenario, Primary natural gas demand in the Reference Scenario and Higher and Lower GDP Growth Cases Long-run marginal cost of generation for gas-fired CCGT power plants and other technologies at different fuel prices in the OECD Long-run marginal cost of generation for gas-fired CCGT power plants compared with other technologies and fuels in OECD countries in Table of contents 27

17 Chapter 11. Gas resources, technology and production profiles 11.1 Typology of natural gas resources Proven reserves of natural gas by region Proven reserves and reserves-to-production ratio by region Ultimately recoverable conventional natural gas resources by region, end Production of unconventional gas in the United States United States shale gas plays Barnett shale wells completed and gas production Gas production and recovery profiles of Barnett shale horizontal wells Production decline rates for Barnett shale horizontal wells Projected ultimate recoverable resources of existing Barnett shale horizontal wells Threshold wellhead gas price needed to yield a 10% return on capital in the main producing counties of the Barnett Shale Hypothetical production profile of a new gas shale play, based on the typical profile of Barnett shale wells Sensitivity of threshold wellhead price to increases in gas recovery and variations in capital cost per well Gas hydrate resource triangle Long-term gas-supply cost curve World gas production from selected super-giant and giant fields, by field vintage Associated and non-associated gas production from selected super-giant and giant fields Typical gas production profiles by category of field 422 Chapter 12. Outlook for gas supply and investment 12.1 Natural gas production by region in the Reference Scenario Change in natural gas production by major country in the Reference Scenario World natural gas production by field vintage in the Reference Scenario World natural gas production by type in the Reference Scenario Net inter-regional natural gas trade flows between major regions in the Reference Scenario, 2007, 2015 and Transportation capacity between major regions in the Reference Scenario Inter-regional natural gas exports and imports by producing and importing region in the Reference Scenario World inter-regional natural gas trade by type in the Reference Scenario Natural gas liquefaction capacity in operation and under construction Liquefied natural gas capacity Change in natural gas production by region in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario Natural gas trade by scenario, Breakdown of cumulative investment in gas-supply infrastructure by activity in the Reference Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2009

18 12.14 Change in cumulative investment in gas-supply infrastructure by region and activity in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario, IEA Upstream Investment Cost Index and annual inflation rate Oil price and upstream costs, Relationships between upstream cost components and oil and gas prices LNG liquefaction plant capital costs 451 Chapter 13. Regional analysis 13.1 North American natural gas demand by sector in the Reference Scenario North American natural gas demand by sector in the 450 Scenario United States natural gas supply in the Reference Scenario United States average gas price and drilling activity North American natural gas supply in the Reference Scenario Selected natural gas import prices versus Russian average export price Energy intensity of GDP in selected countries and regions Russia s gas balance, Eurasian main gas production areas and pipeline routes Russia s gas production by source in the Reference Scenario Projected Russian gas exports to Europe and potential growth in gas export capacity Turkmenistan gas-export price and the European netback market value OECD Europe gas demand by sector in the Reference Scenario OECD Europe gas production by source in the Reference Scenario Indicative costs for potential new sources of gas delivered to Europe, Indicative cost curves for new supplies to selected European gas markets, Natural gas balance in the Middle East by scenario Qatari and Iranian gas infrastructure Natural gas production in selected Middle Eastern countries by scenario Net exports of African natural gas by scenario Natural gas balance in China by scenario 503 Chapter 14: Prospects for natural gas pricing 14.1 Oil and natural gas prices in the United States How oil prices affect gas prices in North America Monthly oil and natural gas prices in the United States Illustration of netback market-value pricing Gas trading hubs in Continental Europe Average spot natural gas prices in Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom Actual gas prices and the economic value of gas in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa, Average international oil and gas company LNG self-contracting commitments, Table of contents 29

19 14.9 LNG contract start-up years and durations Spot LNG trade by country 528 Part D: Energy prospects in Southeast Asia Chapter 15. Overview of energy trends in Southeast Asia 15.1 Key energy challenges in each ASEAN country ASEAN population by country ASEAN retail prices of gasoline and diesel by country, August ASEAN primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario ASEAN total final consumption by sector in the Reference Scenario ASEAN vehicle ownership and fleet in the Reference Scenario ASEAN oil production by country in the Reference Scenario ASEAN oil net-import dependence by country in the Reference Scenario Spending on oil imports as a share of GDP at market exchange rates in ASEAN by country in the Reference Scenario ASEAN gas production by country in the Reference Scenario ASEAN generation capacity by country and fuel in the Reference Scenario ASEAN efficiency improvements in coal-fired generation in the Reference Scenario ASEAN energy-related CO 2 emissions by country in the Reference Scenario ASEAN energy-related CO 2 emissions reduction by source in the 450 Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario Existing and proposed ASEAN Power Grid interconnections The Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline 575 Chapter 16. ASEAN-4 country profiles 16.1 Indonesia s primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Indonesia s PLDV ownership and fleet in the Reference Scenario Indonesia s oil balance in the Reference Scenario Indonesia s natural gas balance in the Reference Scenario Indonesian coal production by type and hard coal net exports in the Reference Scenario Indonesia s electricity generation by fuel in the Reference Scenario Thailand s primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Malaysia s primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Malaysia s final energy consumption by sector in the Reference Scenario Malaysia s electricity generation by fuel in the Reference Scenario Philippines primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Philippine installed electricity generation capacity in the Reference Scenario World Energy Outlook 2009

20 List of tables Introduction 1 Selected major new energy-related government policies taken into account in the Reference Scenario 56 2 Population growth by region 57 3 Real GDP growth by region 62 4 Fossil-fuel price assumptions in the Reference Scenario 64 Part A: Global energy trends to 2030 Chapter 1. Global energy trends in the Reference Scenario 1.1 World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario Primary energy demand by region in the Reference Scenario Primary oil demand by region in the Reference Scenario Oil production and supply by region/country in the Reference Scenario Primary coal demand by region in the Reference Scenario Coal production by region in the Reference Scenario Net inter-regional hard coal trade by region in the Reference Scenario Final electricity consumption by region in the Reference Scenario Projected capacity additions and investment in power infrastructure by region in the Reference Scenario Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure by region in the Reference Scenario, Chapter 2. Implications of current energy policies 2.1 Emissions of major air pollutants by region in the Reference Scenario Net inter-regional oil trade in the Reference Scenario Key global oil transit choke points Electricity access in the Reference Scenario 132 Chapter 3. Impact of the financial crisis on energy investment 3.1 Total investment plans of 50 leading oil and gas companies Major upstream oil and gas projects deferred by at least 18 months, suspended or cancelled Major oil refinery projects deferred by at least 18 months, suspended or cancelled Status of biofuel-production capacity worldwide Production, exports and investment of 25 leading coal companies Electricity demand growth rates for selected countries 157 Part B: Post-2012 climate policy framework Chapter 4. Climate change and the energy outlook 4.1 Examples of new policies incorporated in the Reference Scenario National greenhouse-gas emissions goals in OECD countries 175 Table of contents 31

21 4.3 World s 40 biggest emitters of energy CO 2 per capita, Energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector in the Reference Scenario Installed nuclear capacity by region in the Reference Scenario Cumulative CO 2 budgets for corresponding with probabilities of keeping the global temperature increase below 2 Celsius 193 Chapter 5. Energy and CO 2 implications of the 450 Scenario 5.1 World greenhouse-gas emissions trajectories in the 450 Scenario Fossil-fuel price assumptions in the 450 Scenario CO 2 savings due to national policies and measures and sectoral approaches, Domestic CO 2 emissions by region in the 450 Scenario World primary energy demand by fuel in the 450 Scenario Net natural gas imports in key importing regions by scenario 218 Chapter 6. The 450 Scenario at the sectoral level 6.1 Electricity generation by fuel and region in the 450 Scenario Capacity additions by fuel and region in the 450 Scenario World transport energy consumption by fuel and energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 450 Scenario World industry energy consumption by fuel and energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 450 Scenario World buildings energy consumption by fuel and energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 450 Scenario 251 Chapter 7. Costs and benefits in the 450 Scenario 7.1 World cumulative incremental investment ( ) and CO 2 savings (2030) in power generation and biofuels supply in the 450 Scenario, relative to the Reference Scenario World cumulative incremental investment ( ) and CO 2 savings (2030) in end use in the 450 Scenario, relative to the Reference Scenario Change in cumulative power-plant investment and capacity in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Cumulative investment in power plant by country/region in the 450 Scenario Cumulative investment in renewables, CCS and nuclear power by country/region in the 450 Scenario Nuclear capacity under construction as of end-august Investment and generating costs of renewables for power generation in the 450 Scenario The top ten wind turbine suppliers, by global market share Cumulative incremental investment in in renewable energy in buildings, in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario Average annual incremental investment by country/region and sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2009

22 7.11 Average annual incremental investment by country/region and sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, Emissions of major air pollutants by region in the 450 Scenario Estimated life-years lost due to exposure to anthropogenic emissions of PM Chapter 8. Funding low-carbon growth 8.1 Incremental investment needs by region and sector in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario in Financial support from OECD+ to non-oecd countries under different funding assumptions, Financial support of specific abatement measures in selected sectors in non-oecd countries under different funding assumptions, World Bank climate funds and facilities, end National proposals for raising international funds for mitigation and adaptation 310 Chapter 9: Country and regional profiles in the 450 Scenario 9.1 World key indicators World energy demand and electricity generation OECD+ key indicators OECD+ energy demand and electricity generation US key indicators US energy demand and electricity generation EU key indicators EU energy demand and electricity generation Japan key indicators Japan energy demand and electricity generation OME key indicators OME energy demand and electricity generation Russia key indicators Russia energy demand and electricity generation China key indicators China energy demand and electricity generation OC key indicators OC energy demand and electricity generation India key indicators India energy demand and electricity generation 360 Part C: Prospects for natural gas Chapter 10. Outlook for gas demand 10.1 Primary natural gas demand by region in the Reference Scenario Primary natural gas demand by region in the 450 Scenario 373 Table of contents 33

23 10.3 Summary of main drivers of gas demand by sector Assumed cost and technical parameters of power plants in the OECD starting commercial operation in World primary natural gas demand in the Reference Scenario and the Higher and Lower Energy Prices Cases 385 Chapter 11. Gas resources, technology and production profiles 11.1 Major conventional gas discoveries and reserve additions, Conventional natural gas resources by region, end Global unconventional natural gas resources in place Principal physical properties of the leading shale-gas plays in North America The world s biggest conventional gas fields by peak production The world s biggest conventional gas fields by initial reserves Plateau production characteristics by size, location and type of gas field Production-weighted, average observed decline rates by size, location and type of gas field 423 Chapter 12. Outlook for gas supply and investment 12.1 Natural gas production by country/region in the Reference Scenario Flared gas based on satellite data Net inter-regional natural gas trade in the Reference Scenario Natural gas liquefaction capacity Natural gas liquefaction capacity to be commissioned in Natural gas production by country/region in the 450 Scenario Cumulative investment in gas-supply infrastructure by region and activity in the Reference Scenario, Chapter 13. Regional analysis 13.1 North American existing and planned LNG import capacity Selected current and prospective gas fields in Russia Natural gas production of Caspian region producers and Russia in the Reference Scenario Europe s gas balance by scenario LNG supplies and indicative total costs for new supplies to Europe, Pipeline routes, assumptions and indicative costs for new supplies to Europe, Major gas projects in Qatar based on North Field gas reserves South Pars development phases Africa s proven natural gas reserves and production Algeria s gas export capacity Australian LNG projects World Energy Outlook 2009

24 Chapter 14: Prospects for natural gas pricing 14.1 Composition of wholesale gas transactions by price-formation mechanism and region, Impacts of changes in oil prices on gas prices in the United States 512 Part D: Energy prospects in Southeast Asia Chapter 15. Overview of energy trends in Southeast Asia 15.1 Key energy indicators for ASEAN by country Energy sector overview for ASEAN by country ASEAN key economic indicators and GDP growth assumptions by country in the Reference Scenario ASEAN oil refining capacity and planned additions by country ASEAN existing and planned LNG infrastructure Plans for nuclear power plant construction in ASEAN by country Current status of the ASEAN power utilities by country ASEAN electricity access by country, Biofuels policies in selected ASEAN countries ASEAN emissions of major pollutants in the Reference Scenario ASEAN cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure in the Reference Scenario ASEAN primary energy demand in the 450 Scenario ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Co-operation, Existing bilateral gas pipeline interconnections Planned gas pipeline interconnections 576 Chapter 16. ASEAN-4 country profiles 16.1 Key energy indicators for Indonesia GDP and population growth assumptions in Indonesia in the Reference Scenario Indonesia s energy-related CO 2 and local air pollutant emissions in the Reference Scenario Key energy indicators for Thailand GDP and population growth assumptions in Thailand in the Reference Scenario Thailand s energy-related CO 2 and local air pollutant emissions in the Reference Scenario Key energy Indicators for Malaysia GDP and population growth assumptions in Malaysia in the Reference Scenario Malaysia s energy-related CO 2 and local air pollutant emissions in the Reference Scenario Key energy indicators for Philippines GDP and population growth assumptions in Philippines in the Reference Scenario Philippine energy-related CO 2 and local air pollutant emissions in the Reference Scenario 618 Table of contents 35

25 List of boxes Introduction 1 To what extent are high oil prices to blame for the economic crisis? 60 Part A: Global energy trends to 2030 Chapter 1. Global energy trends in the Reference Scenario 1.1 Interpreting the Reference Scenario results Impact of falling investment on oilfield decline rates Changes in power-generation projections in this year s Outlook 98 Chapter 2. Implications of current energy policies 2.1 The future of the IEA oil emergency response mechanisms The 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas dispute The implications of phasing out energy subsidies The Universal Electricity Access Case 132 Chapter 3. Impact of the financial crisis on energy investment 3.1 How has the crisis affected energy demand so far? 137 Part B: Post-2012 climate policy framework Chapter 4. Climate change and the energy outlook 4.1 Embedded energy Analysis of the EU ETS in the Reference Scenario Environmental impacts of a 6 C temperature rise 192 Chapter 5. Energy and CO 2 implications of the 450 Scenario 5.1 Key new features of WEO-2009 climate change analysis Carbon markets and carbon prices in the 450 Scenario 208 Chapter 6. The 450 Scenario at the sectoral level 6.1 The policy framework for the power generation sector in the 450 Scenario The policy framework for the transport sector in the 450 Scenario Fuel-pricing policy and its impact on the sectoral agreement The policy framework for the industry sector in the 450 Scenario The policy framework for the buildings sector in the 450 Scenario 252 Chapter 7. Costs and benefits in the 450 Scenario 7.1 Calculating the investment needs Uncertainties about calculating mitigation costs for transport World Energy Outlook 2009

26 Chapter 8. Funding low-carbon growth 8.1 WEO-2009 carbon-flow modelling Negative-cost efficiency investments? Turning potential into reality Financing research and development of clean energy Greening the national tax system 317 Part C: Prospects for natural gas Chapter 10. Outlook for gas demand 10.1 The potential for natural gas vehicles 371 Chapter 11. Gas resources, technology and production profiles 11.1 Resource and reserve definitions Assessments of unconventional resources Shale-gas production technology The IEA field-by-field gas production database Defining field production profiles, plateaus and decline rates 421 Chapter 12. Outlook for gas supply and investment 12.1 Modelling natural gas production and trade in WEO Chapter 13. Regional analysis 13.1 Azerbaijan: a tale of higher GDP and lower energy demand South Yolotan/Osman: a Turkmen super-giant Qatar s booming LNG industry 490 Chapter 14: Prospects for natural gas pricing 14.1 Pricing mechanisms defined The mechanics of netback market value pricing Evolution of the pricing of Japan s LNG imports The Australian gas market: a case study of competitive pricing in Asia-Pacific 523 Part D: Energy prospects in southeast Asia Chapter 15. Overview of energy trends in Southeast Asia 15.1 Nuclear power: what role could it play in ASEAN? Energy strategy for an island state: Singapore Bypassing piracy in the Strait of Malacca Territorial claims in the South China Sea Increasing the role of renewables in Southeast Asia 564 Chapter 16. ASEAN-4 country profiles 16.1 The important role of PETRONAS in the Malaysian economy Geothermal in Philippines 617 Table of contents 37

27 List of spotlights Part A: Global energy trends to 2030 Chapter 1. Global energy trends in the Reference Scenario How do the energy demand projections compare with WEO-2008? 77 Chapter 2. Implications of current energy policies Do energy producers need greater security of demand? 127 Chapter 3. Impact of the financial crisis on energy investment Canadian oil sands: is the boom over or taking a breather? 147 Part B: Post-2012 climate policy framework Chapter 4. Climate change and the energy outlook Is the financial crisis an unexpected opportunity to step up the climate change effort? 171 Chapter 5. Energy and CO 2 implications of the 450 Scenario Other possible stabilisation targets where does the current debate stand? 198 Chapter 7. Costs and benefits in the 450 Scenario CO 2 savings for free? 277 Part C: Prospects for natural gas Chapter 10. Outlook for gas demand Does carbon pricing mean more or less gas use? 384 Chapter 11. Gas resources, technology and production profiles What might prevent the take-off of unconventional gas production worldwide? 415 Chapter 12. Outlook for gas supply and investment Is peak gas on the horizon? 433 Chapter 14: Prospects for natural gas pricing Is the Gas Exporting Countries Forum the new Gas-OPEC? 530 Part D: Energy prospects in Southeast Asia Chapter 15. Overview of energy trends in Southeast Asia Time for Southeast Asia to reduce its reliance on exports for growth? World Energy Outlook 2009