How we can plan measures to control micro-pollutants in river basins

Transcription

1 How we can plan measures to control micro-pollutants in river basins Carlos Constantino Strategic Advisory Services - Research 16 January

2 How we can plan measures to control micro-pollutants in river basins River basin management plans set out how organisations, stakeholders and communities work together to improve the water environment. Planning is the process of thinking about and organising the activities required to achieve a desired goal. Planning can be envisaged as a three-step process Choosing a destination Evaluating alternative routes, and Deciding on a specific course of action. 16 January

3 Choosing a destination The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires Member States to achieve Good status for all water bodies. Our destination is set. 16 January

4 Choosing a destination Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) specify limits on the concentrations of chemical substances that pose a significant risk to the environment or to human health in surface waters. EQSs are expressed in a number of different formats: Water column concentration; Annual Average (AA) and Maximum Allowable Concentration (MAC). Different values for freshwater and salt water. Concentrations determined by direct measurement. Biota concentration various values derived by different agencies (human health, secondary poisoning, aquatic life usually the most stringent will apply). Concentrations determined by direct measurement. Bioavailable concentration concentration determined by measurement of multiple physico-chemical parameters (e.g. metal concentration, DOC, ph, hardness) and modelling. 16 January

5 Choosing a destination Hg 0.07µg/L MAC, 20µg/kg Biota Cu 1.0µg/L as bioavailable DEHP 1.3µg/L AA Different kinds of interventions may be required to ensure compliance for different standards and different chemicals. 16 January

6 Evaluating options Pollutants have different sources (source apportionment). End-of-pipe inputs (inputs from within the sewer catchment) Diffuse inputs (run-off, atmospheric deposition etc). The contribution from different sources will be different at different locations, therefore requiring different interventions. In the absence of usage interventions (e.g. bans or restrictions on use not always possible/desirable) it may be necessary to actively control inputs from either or both point and diffuse sources. 16 January

7 Evaluating options What do we need to know? Where do the pollutants come from? What mitigation options (treatment technologies and interventions) are available? Will the mitigation options work? How much will they cost? Who should pay? 16 January

8 Evaluating options Trial and error (do it and see what happens ) Slow Expensive Inefficient Computer modelling Modelling is about building representations of systems that exist in the real world to allow ideas to be investigated in a time and resource efficient manner. The goal of modellers is to bring models based on a comprehensive understanding of a system to bear on problems of operational or practical interest. 16 January

9 Evaluating options Modelling is used to facilitate decision making and planning in a broad range of subject areas: Weather prediction Space flight Climate science Oceanography River Basin Management Planning 16 January

10 Evaluating options Discharge permits ensure that inputs from point sources such as wastewater treatment works do not result in EQS exceedances. Water quality modelling underpins management decisions on discharge permitting and therefore the investment and actions to improve water quality. Over the past two decades c 25 billion of water industry expenditure has been directly related to maintaining and improving the aquatic environment. 16 January

11 Evaluating options Numerous modelling tools have been developed in the UK over the past three decades. These reflect how measures to control pollutants have been planned in the past and provide clues on how measures to control (micro)pollutants might be planned in future. RQP SIMCAT SAGIS- SIMCAT SAGIS- SIMCAT- DST 16 January

12 Evaluating options 16 January

13 - Polluter Pays Principle - Catchment based permitting - Biota and bioavailability EQS Evaluating options >1990s RQP SIMCAT >2000s SIMCAT SIMCAT/SAGIS >Now SIMCAT/SAGIS+ Decision Support Tool MPER + PBT - Availability and use of digitally formatted data - Computer processing and analytics - New knowledge (catchment science, chemistry, ecotoxicology) 16 January

14 Evaluating options Methodology for permitting discharges from point sources >1990s RQP SIMCAT 16 January

15 c Distribution of flows and quality used to produce distribution of downstream quality and to back-calculate the required discharge quality f F T C 16 January

16 Evaluating options (RQP) 16 January

17 Evaluating options (SIMCAT) Catchment scale RQP. Quantifies inputs from multiple discharges and carries input loads forward. Facilitates catchmentscale discharge planning. SIMCAT (Simulation of Catchments) 16 January

18 Evaluating options (SIMCAT) Relocate WwTWs inputs to a single downstream WwTW OR Improvements at some or all catchment WwTWs 16 January

19 Evaluating options (SIMCAT) National SIMCAT models SIMCAT models for most UK RBDs Representation of all large point source discharges Enabled modellers to ask what if type questions at a national scale. Facilitates chemical-by-chemical discharge permit planning. 16 January

20 Evaluating options (SAGIS) As controls on point source inputs have taken effect, pollutant inputs from other sectors and sources have become relatively more important, leading to the development of SAGIS (Source Apportionment GIS) >2000s SAGIS-SIMCAT 16 January

21 Evaluating options (SAGIS) 16 January

22 Evaluating options (SAGIS) Emissions Inventory Apportionment Breakdown by River Basin District Emissions Inventory Apportionment Breakdown by Input Sector 1% 0% 8% 4% 5% 22% 2% 1% 6% 27% 1% 47% 16% 10% 0% 1% 29% 0% 0% 0% 18% 2% Anglian Dee Humber North West Northumbria Severn Solway Tweed South East South West Thames Western Wales Sewage treatment works Industrial discharges Livestock Highway run-off Atmospheric deposition Intermittent discharges Direct mine water discharges Diffuse mine water discharges Urban run-off Background inputs 16 January 2018 Septic tanks 22

23 Evaluating options (SAGIS) Takes account of inputs from multiple sectors, quantifies inputs at a sector and RBD scale. Extended to facilitate planning for lakes and estuaries. Enables modellers to ask what if type questions that consider controls on point and diffuse source inputs (application of the Polluter Pays Principle). Product of evolution. Builds on earlier approaches, adapting to new context Incorporates new data, and advances in computer science and scientific understanding. 16 January

24 - Polluter Pays Principle - Catchment based permitting - Biota & bioavailability EQS Evaluating options (DST) >Now SIMCAT/SAGIS+ Decision Support Tool MPER + PBT - Availability and use of digitally formatted data - Computer processing and analytics - New knowledge (catchment science, chemistry, ecotoxicology) 16 January

25 Evaluating options (DST) Micro-pollutants - decision makers want to understand how to achieve compliance for all pollutants. Complexities - Multiple sources of chemicals - Differences in where there is risk - Different treatment options required for different pollutants - Cannot sum the cost to treat the chemicals individually 16 January

26 Large number of unique arrangements of options (~16k) - Numerous potential scenarios Complexity! Non-compliance for phosphate, HBCDD Non-compliance for phosphate, TBT, copper Non-compliance for phosphate, TBT, copper, cypermethrin, HBCDD 16 January

27 Evaluating options (DST) Consolidated inputs (SIMCAT outputs) Input formatting module Decision Support Tool (DST) GUI Solver Output formatting module Output SIMCAT data Model data Scenario criteria Determinand A Determinand B Determinand C Determinand D Calibration spreadsheet tool Options, costs and effectiveness data for multiple chemicals (CIP2) Basis for costs and effectiveness calculations Confidence of compliance target (N/M/H) Scenario mode ( feasible or fair ) Customisation (e.g. selection or options specification) Mixed integer linear program/algorithm Uses SAGIS outputs as inputs Outputs visualised via SAGIS 16 January

28 Cost ( M) Evaluating options (DST) 90 Cost of measures and total compliance passes 80 53/80 60/ /80 60/ /80 55/ / / A B C D Face value Fair share 44 baseline passes Improvements follow the order SRP (6) > HBCDD (2) > Cypermethrin (1) > TBT (0) > Zinc (0) 16 January

29 Evaluating options (DST) Can be used wherever there is a SAGIS-SIMCAT model available. Allows companies to develop plans to address multiple chemicals of concern and quantify co-removal benefits for non-target chemicals. Shortens planning horizon. Supports catchment based planning and permitting. 16 January

30 What do we need to know? Where do the pollutants come from? Existing modelling tools have the ability to quantify inputs for different sources. What mitigation options are available? Data on costs and effectiveness of different treatment technologies for different chemicals is emerging from CIP2. This can be used in conjunction with existing modelling tools. Will the mitigation options work? Existing modelling tools can provide estimates on the extent to which compliance can be achieved. How much will they cost? Existing tools can generate cost estimates that can be used in cost benefit analyses to inform decision making. Who should pay? 16 January

31 How can we plan measures to control micro-pollutants in river basins? The existing suite of UK water quality planning tools therefore already provide a sound basis for planning controls on micro-pollutants. RQP SIMCAT SAGIS- SIMCAT SAGIS- SIMCAT- DST 16 January

32 Where to next? Biota and bioavailability based EQSs planning 16 January

33 Thank you 16 January