Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors

Transcription

1 Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors Project Number: September 2007 Proposed Loan Republic of Tajikistan: Khatlon Province Flood Risk Management Project

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 31 August 2007) Currency Unit somoni (TJS) TJS 1.00 = $0.290 $1.00 = TJS3.44 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank ADF Asian Development Fund CES Committee for Emergency Situations DEAP disaster and emergency assistance policy EA executing agency EMP environmental management plan FGIA first generation imprest account IA implementing agency ICB international competitive bidding IEE initial environmental examination LIB limited international bidding MAEP Ministry of Agriculture and Environment Protection MLRWR Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources NCB national competitive bidding NGO nongovernment organization O&M operation and maintenance PIO project implementation office PMO project management office PRSP poverty reduction strategy paper PSC project steering committee QCBS quality- and cost-based selection SCES State Commission for Emergency Situations SCSNUP State Control Service for Nature Use and Protection SGIA second generation imprest account TA technical assistance USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank GLOSSARY dekhan farm private or cooperative farm jamoat administrative unit below district, comprising a group of villages, also the lowest level of local government administration oblast province

3 NOTES (i) (ii) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government and its agencies ends on 31 December. In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. Vice President L. Jin, Operations Group 1 Director General J. Miranda, Central and West Asia Department (CWRD) Director K. Matsunami, Agriculture, Environment and Natural Resources Division, CWRD Team leader Team members T. Miyazato, Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist, CWRD L. Blanchetti-Revelli, Social Development Specialist (Resettlement), CWRD B. Konysbayev, Counsel, Office of the General Counsel M. Kunzer, Environment Specialist, CWRD T. Lin, Economist, Economics Analysis and Operations Support Division, Economics and Research Department H. Maruyama, Senior Procurement Specialist, Central Operations Services B. Wilkinson, Rural Development Specialist, CWRD R. Salvo, Associate Operations Analyst, CWRD

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5 CONTENTS Page LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY i MAP v I. THE PROPOSAL 1 II. RATIONALE: SECTOR PERFORMANCE, PROBLEMS, AND OPPORTUNITIES 1 A. Performance Indicators and Analysis 1 B. Analysis of Key Problems 3 C. Opportunities 5 III. THE PROPOSED PROJECT 8 A. Impact and Outcome 8 B. Outputs 8 C. Special Features 9 D. Cost Estimates 9 E. Financing Plan 10 F. Implementation Arrangements 10 IV. PROJECT BENEFITS, IMPACTS, ASSUMPTIONS, AND RISKS 15 A. Project Benefit 15 B. Project Sustainability 15 C. Environmental Impacts 16 D. Involuntary Resettlement 16 E. Indigenous Peoples 16 F. Gender and Development 16 G. Social and Poverty Impacts 17 H. Project Risks 17 V. ASSURANCES 18 A. Operation and Maintenance Cost 18 B. Amendment of Water Code 18 C. Land Acquisition and Resettlement 18 D. Environment 19 E. Gender and Development 19 F. Employment 19 G. Health and Social Risks 19 H. Construction Quality 19 I. Policy Dialogue 20 H. Governance and Anticorruption 20 VI. RECOMMENDATION 20 APPENDIXES 1. Design and Monitoring Framework Country and Sector Analysis Major External Assistance to Water/Natural Disaster Sector Tentative Institutional and Legal Reform Schedule Detailed Cost Estimates 32

6 6. Implementation of Khatlon Province Flood Risk Management Plan Implementation Schedule Procurement Plan Summary Initial Environment Examination Resettlement Framework Summary Poverty Reduction and Social Strategy 57 SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIXES (available upon request) A. Detailed Cost Estimates (Tables 1 to 12) B. Detailed Terms of Reference for Consultant Services C. Economic Analysis D. Gender and Development Plan E. Possible Relevant Lessons Derived from Evaluation Information System

7 LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower Classification Environment Assessment Project Description Republic of Tajikistan Targeting classification: General intervention Sector: Agriculture and natural resources Subsector: Water resources management Themes: Sustainable economic growth, inclusive social development, capacity development Subthemes: Developing rural areas, fostering physical infrastructure development, other vulnerable groups, institutional development Category B. The summary initial environmental examination (SIEE) is in Appendix 9. Tajikistan is susceptible to natural disasters, particularly floods. The floods of 1998 and 1999 were especially devastating, causing 32 deaths and agricultural and infrastructure damage estimated at $55 million. The Project aims to help Tajikistan address recurring flood risks through a holistic and coordinated approach involving both physical and non-physical measures in one of the most floodprone areas in the country Hamadoni, Farkhor, Kulyab, and Vose districts in Khatlon province. A major part of the Project funds will be used for the physical works for the rehabilitation of 8.3 km of flood protection embankment along the Pyanj River. In addition, the project will develop and disseminate a flood risk map, strengthen flood warning systems, prepare a flood preparedness and evacuation plan, and strengthen flood forecasting capacity by rehabilitating the hydrometeorological network. Given that the Pyanj River borders Tajikistan and Afghanistan, the possible environmental impacts of the Project's physical works in both Tajikistan and Afghanistan were examined. The initial environment examination study found that there is unlikely to be significant negative environmental impact. The Project is expected to have a significant positive impact on ecological resources and socioeconomic conditions in the area. In addition, the project will help the Government define and implement the policy reforms needed to improve its flood preparedness, and to remove some of its persisting operation and maintenance (O&M) funding constraints for the flood levees and bank protection works. The Project will strengthen capacity at the Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources (MLRWR) and the local government bodies to manage flood disaster risks, and to apply

8 ii need-based O&M budget planning, allocations, and monitoring for the flood protection structures. The application of performancebased O&M contracts will also be pilot tested. Rationale The four districts in Khatlon province contain some of the country s most productive agricultural lands. Cotton, Tajikistan s key agricultural export commodity, is grown in 53% of the province s farm land (93,000 ha), accounting for 32% of the country s total cotton area. The area is populated by 583,700 people and has a comparatively high level of private and public sector assets, which play a pivotal role in regional agriculture, economy and trade. This area is under constant threat of flooding by the Pyanj River, as flood protection facilities have degraded over the years because of continued under-funding of O&M expenditures. In addition, the floods from the upper mountains are worsening both in intensity and duration. The Government accords the highest priority to the immediate improvement of flood protection facilities in Khatlon province. By putting in place modern flood protection, the Government also expects to reduce the annual O&M funding requirements substantially. The concept and approach of the proposed project reflect the lessons gathered under the technical assistance (TA) for Strategy for Improved Flood Management. The economic problems of the last decade have left a considerable backlog of maintenance work to be done on the protection systems. As a result, the levels of protection against flooding in many areas of the country are alarmingly low addressing this backlog in order to bring protection systems to a reasonable level has been accorded a high priority. Impact and Outcome The Project will reduce the risk of socioeconomic losses caused by floods in Farkhor, Hamadoni, Kulyab and Vose districts of Khatlon province through a holistic and coordinated approach of physical protection measures and non-physical measures, such as flood preparedness, forecasting and warning with community participation. The institutional and legal framework will be strengthened during project implementation, taking full account of social, environmental, and economic factors. Project Investment Plan The cost of the project is estimated at $28.5 million, including taxes and duties of $4.9 million. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will finance $22 million equivalent from Asian Development Fund (ADF). The remaining $6.5 million equivalent will be financed by the Government.

9 iii Financing Plan A loan in various currencies equivalent to Special Drawing Rights 14,403,000 from ADB s Special Fund resources will be provided. The loan will have a 32-year term, including a grace period of 8 years, an interest rate of 1% yearly during the grace period and 1.5% yearly thereafter, and such other terms and conditions as are set forth in the Loan Agreement. The loan will meet the costs of the infrastructure development, consultant services, institutional strengthening and office and equipment requirements. The Government will finance taxes and duties, counterpart staff, and a part of the O&M cost. Period of Utilization Until 30 June 2014 Estimated Project Completion Date Executing Agency 31 December 2013 Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources (MLRWR) Implementation Arrangements Procurement Consulting Services MLRWR will be the executing agency. A project steering committee (PSC) will be located in the President s Office and will meet twice a year. The PSC s secretariat will be located in the project management office (PMO). The existing PMO under the MLRWR for an ongoing ADB project will also serve as PMO for this project. Within three months of the loan effectiveness, each of the PMO, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment Protection (MAEP), and Committee for the Emergency Situation (CES) establish an adequately staffed PIO. Each PIO will be responsible for the day-to-day implementation of the respective component of the Project, including (i) supervision of contractors and consultants; (ii) preparation of the draft progress report and other necessary related documents; and (iii) coordination of the activities under the respective component. The Project will procure machinery, equipment, civil works, services, vehicles, office equipment, and materials. All procurement will be undertaken in accordance with ADB s Guidelines for Procurement (2007, as amended from time to time). The Project will provide 486 person-months of consulting services, to be provided by international (72 person-months) and national consultants (414 person-months). The consultants will be recruited according to ADB s Guidelines on the Use of Consultants (2007, as amended from time to time). The selection will be based on full technical proposals and quality- and costbased selection (QCBS).

10 iv Project Benefits and Beneficiaries The project area is highly vulnerable to floods and has a strong need for flood protection. Khatlon province contains most of the low-lying flat land in Tajikistan. The population density is relatively high, and predominantly rural. The population of the project area is 583,700, only 20% of whom were in employment in 2005, mainly in the agricultural sector. The average monthly income from agriculture was $15 per month. The economy of the project area is dominated by agriculture, with wheat and cotton being the most important cash crops, followed by vegetables and fruit, mainly for the local market and for domestic consumption. Assuming that a medium level of maintenance is achieved, it is considered that the proposed embankments can effectively protect against floods for the next 100 years. The economic analysis shows that the annualized benefits would be TJS8.148 million with an economic rate of return of 16.0%. If it is possible to achieve only a low level of maintenance, the level of protection will be reduced to 50 years and the annualized level of benefits will be TJS7.038 million with an economic rate of return of 13.7%. The Project will bring social benefits, particularly for poorer beneficiaries, by reducing (i) losses of personal property, houses and livestock and consequent damage to family living conditions; (ii) significant declines in income levels; (iii) emergence of disease, (iv) decreases in agricultural yields, (v) deterioration of drinking water, (vi) declines in access to essential services, and (vii) levels of migration. No significant negative environmental impact is likely. The Project is likely to have a significant positive impact on soil and water resources, agricultural productivities, public health, and rural livelihoods. Risks and Assumptions If the Government cannot provide a sufficient O&M budget for the completed flood protection embankment, it will be easily damaged by the future floods. This risk has been mitigated by including in the loan agreement a provision for heavy equipment to maintain the completed embankments and a strong commitment from the Government to provide sufficient budget for fuel, lubricant, and spare parts, which are clearly specified in the loan agreement.

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13 I. THE PROPOSAL 1. I submit for your approval the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Republic of Tajikistan for the Khatlon Province Flood Risk Management Project. II. RATIONALE: SECTOR PERFORMANCE, PROBLEMS, AND OPPORTUNITIES 2. At the request of the Government of Tajikistan, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved technical assistance (TA) for the preparation of the Khatlon Province Flood Risk Management Project (the Project). 1 The TA study was carried out from November 2006 to May This report is based on the project preparatory technical assistance feasibility study, the findings of ADB missions, lessons learned from similar projects, and discussions with government officials, other development partners, civil society, and beneficiaries. The project design and monitoring framework is in Appendix 1. A. Performance Indicators and Analysis 2 3 Tajikistan is a mountainous, landlocked and isolated country with high mountains and significant river systems. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992 it was the poorest of the former Soviet republics, and a subsequent 5-year civil war both delayed economic transition and slowed growth prospects. The economy grew by 7.0% in 2006, driven by increases in aluminum prices and approximately $718 million in remittances 3 from large numbers of male migrants. However, the country s options are limited by a narrow export base of largely cotton and aluminum, structural difficulties in agriculture, and limited capacity for international borrowing to fund other economic expansion. Per-capita income levels of $350 per year demonstrate the high level of poverty, and low government revenues severely constrain service provision, particularly in rural areas. 4. Of Tajikistan s total area of 14.3 million hectares (ha), only 4.3 million ha is agricultural land and only 0.8 million ha is arable. Despite the low amount of available arable land, agriculture is the major source of livelihood for more than 64% of the population, and makes significant contributions to the economy. In 2004, output from agriculture generated 22% of gross domestic product (GDP), 20% of exports, 67% of employment, and 39% of tax revenues. Of Tajikistan s 7.0 million people, 70% live in rural areas. Rural poverty incidence declined from 83% in 1999 to 64% in For poverty reduction to be effective, rural households must be able to protect their access to and productivity of their land and be able to mitigate the risk of the loss of livelihoods and assets. 5. Tajikistan is prone to frequent natural disasters, including floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches, earthquakes, droughts and epidemics because of its terrain and climate. Catastrophic events with an annual probability of occurrence of 0.5% (events expected to occur once every 200 years) would have a major impact on an already vulnerable economy and it has been estimated that the economic losses from such an event would exceed 20% of Tajikistan s GDP. 4 All areas of the country would be affected. The combination of low gross national 1 ADB Technical Assistance to the Republic of Tajikistan for Preparing the Khatlon Province Flood Management Project. Manila. 2 See Appendix 2 for further analysis of the sector. 3 ADB Regional Study on Remittances in Central Asia and South Caucasus. Initial Presentation of Results at the ADB Annual General Meeting in Kyoto, Japan, 4 May ADB Regional Cooperation on Disaster Management and Preparedness. Senior Officials Meeting on Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation August Urumqi, XUAR, People s Republic of China.

14 2 product (GNP) and the risk of floods and other natural disasters on the national, provincial and local economies is a serious brake on social development and economic growth. 6. Floods are a particularly severe disaster risk, because of the mountainous nature of the country. The mountain system is geologically young and eroded and mountain slopes are steep in many parts of the country. Climactic systems source water from glacial and snowmelt at high elevations. These conditions easily generate destructive floods. While annual total rainfall is not particularly high, intensive daily rainfall in excess of 100 mm is known. Floods from larger rivers tend to be generated through rapid snowmelt, coupled with periods of heavy rainfall. The years 1998 and 1999 were particularly bad for flooding, leading to 32 deaths and agricultural and infrastructure damage estimated at $55 million. 7. The relatively densely populated Khatlon province occupies the south-west corner of Tajikistan adjacent to the Uzbekistan border to the west and the Afghanistan border to the south. The population of the project area (Hamadoni, Farkhor, Vose, and Kulyab districts) is 583,700. Only 20% of adults were formally employed in 2005, mainly in agriculture. The average monthly income from agriculture was $15 per month. The economy of the project area is dominated by agriculture, with wheat and cotton being the most important cash crops, followed by vegetables and fruit, mainly for the local market and domestic consumption. Poverty is significant, endemic, and higher than in most other areas of the country. 8. Khatlon province contains large reclaimed flood plain in the 1930s by Soviet embankment construction along the Pyanj and tributary Yakhsu and Kazilsu rivers. This area forms a significant percentage of Tajikistan s total arable land and much of the irrigated land area. Khatlon province contains most of the low-lying land in Tajikistan. The Pyanj river forms the international border with Afghanistan, and the Babatag Mountains form the international border with Uzbekistan. Runoff from the Pyanj river basin is generated mainly in summer because of snow- and icemelt. The volume of annual runoff depends chiefly on the quantity of snow accumulation in winter and air temperatures during the following summer. The maximum discharge is usually in July or August, while the minimum occurs in mid-winter. 9. In the years since independence, the fertile plains adjacent to the Pyanj, Kizilsu and Yakhsu rivers in Khatlon province have become increasingly vulnerable to floods. Lives have been lost and flood embankments, houses, canals, land, roads and bridges have been destroyed. There were severe floods in Kulyab, Vose and Farkhor districts in 1998 and 1999 caused by the Yakhsu and Kizilsu river systems. Subsequently, smaller floods have caused further damage. A major flood took place in 2005 in Hamadoni district caused by embankment failure along the Pyanj river, with damage estimated at over $18 million. 10. The flood risk on the flood plains of the Kizilsu and Yakhsu rivers in Kulyab, Vose and Farkhor districts in Khatlon province is very high because of the destruction of flood embankments since At least 15 km of flood embankment have been destroyed so far. The probability of flooding in some parts may now be higher than 50% (an average chance of flooding once in 2 years). The irrigation infrastructure, inherited at the end of the Soviet era, has suffered from a lack of investment in routine maintenance. This has led to progressive loss of cultivable land and damage to embankments, intakes and canals. The lack of maintenance leaves communities, infrastructure and valuable agricultural land highly vulnerable to further loss or damage on an almost annual basis. In effect there is no flood protection in some places. One hundred and six villages in the catchment area are designated as high flood risk. 11. The Pyanj river emerges from being relatively confined in a valley onto a large outwash fan. At the head of the fan the river is characterized by its steep slope, its gravel and cobble

15 3 bed, and its braided bed form. A notable feature of the main river channel is that it tends to attach to one mountainside or the other, with braided channels crossing gravel bars from one side to the other. The current design and construction methods of flood embankments and spurs aim for economy and expediency but at the cost of high maintenance burdens. Without proper maintenance, it is inevitable that flood risk will increase because of the erosion, slumping, and breaching of embankments due to the highly energetic and unstable channels of the Pyanj river. 12. The situation in the Kizilsu and Yakhsu valleys is quite different. Here the rivers have been severely constrained by flood embankments on both sides with the adjacent land heavily developed for agriculture and settlement. This rigid river training has encouraged more gravel and silt to be transported further down the valleys than would naturally be the case, raising river bed levels and flood levels. In Kulyab and Vose, the main channels of the Kizilsu and Yakhsu rivers appear to have little capacity left. Consequently, the embankments have been scoured, overtopped, and breached. Lack of adequate maintenance has allowed once minor damage to spread almost unchecked until it has become a major issue. In 2007, many villages and farms in Kulyab and Vose are highly vulnerable to serious flooding. This state of affairs may have been exacerbated by the local practice of excavating river gravels close to the embankments. B. Analysis of Key Problems 13. Careful analysis reveals the following key flood management performance problems in the project area and generally: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x) (xi) the current Water Code does not incorporate the concept of flood management; institutional responsibilities for flood management are not clearly specified in existing legislation; there are no specific allocations of core capital and recurrent funds to the flood management institutions; flood defences have failed because of a lack of maintenance; accurate flood forecasts have not been available because only part of the precipitation and river monitoring network is functional and forecasting tools are not developed; flood warnings have not reached the residents of flood risk areas soon enough; many residents of flood-risk areas have been unprepared for floods, and unaware of how to mitigate the risk of loss of assets and critical papers; the socioeconomic impacts of flooding have been large and in some locations irreversible; the rivers in the Hamadoni area are naturally unstable and erosive and are in conflict with flood plain development for agriculture and settlement; land use changes in highland subcatchment areas may have increased flood frequency and magnitude; and global warming and climate change may have increased flood frequency and magnitude and may continue to do so. 14. The key flood management institutions are the State Commission for Emergency Situations (SCES), the Committee for Emergency Situations (CES), the Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources (MLRWR) and the Agency for Hydrometeorology within the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment Protection (MAEP). However, their specific roles and responsibilities with respect to flood management are not completely defined in the underlying legislation and are not integrated or well coordinated within a coherent flood management system. This causes gaps and overlaps in predicting floods and preparing for them, in mitigating

16 4 risk, in addressing floods when they occur, and in post-flood repairs. Furthermore, there are no specific allocations of capital or recurrent funds for flood management at each institution. Flood management and disaster management in general appears to be managed by the central Government on a contingency basis rather than as a core activity. 15. Since 1992, the Government has been forced into a strategy of reactive emergency repairs to flood defenses in the project area and elsewhere following a series of severe floods. These repairs have had to be funded partly by international partners and partly from state reserves on an as-needed basis. There is a shortage of central recurrent budgets for operation and maintenance (O&M), and water users are unable to pay enough for flood protection from the irrigation canals. The situation is now widely recognized by the Government and by the donor community to be unsustainable. There is growing acceptance that there needs to be a more holistic and strategic approach to flood management. 16. The most important environmental issue is the conflict between agriculture and settlement on the flood plains and the naturally violent and unstable nature of the rivers. To sustain agricultural production and development, the rivers have to be managed very carefully and significant resources provided for O&M of the aging irrigation and embankment systems. Unfortunately, since independence in 1992, this has been beyond the means of central, provincial and district governments. Consequently there has been progressive destruction of land, property and infrastructure. 17. The provision of adequate maintenance is a considerable challenge for the Government. Total expenditure on flood protection works decreased sharply from $11.5 million in 1985 to $0.43 million in 1999 and it has remained at roughly this level since then. Proper O&M of flood protection embankments requires 2%-3% of the total capital investment cost annually. One problem MLRWR faces in maintaining the flood embankments is the poor condition of the heavy equipment. In Hamadoni district, the existing stock of machinery for maintenance is between 15 and 30 years old and 10 of the 23 machines are unserviceable. If flood embankments are not properly maintained, they will erode and flood protection capacity will fall. 18. Flood risk maps show the areas of a flood plain that are likely to flood. They are used to define different flood risk areas within the flood plain according to flood frequency and severity of flood impact. The flood risk of each area defined in this way then determines which flood management measures are most appropriate in that zone and which areas should be prioritized. Unfortunately there are no detailed flood risk maps in the project area, so there are no proper emergency evacuation plans in the villages along the Pyanj, Yakhsu and Kizilsu rivers. 19. Although a flood warning system exists for the Pyanj river at Hamadoni, based on the rate of rise of the river level at Khirmanjo approximately 100 km upstream, the warnings are imprecise. The river gauge is in a poor condition and difficult to reach because it is on the Afghanistan border. A flood warning system has recently been restored on the Yakhsu river at Karboztonak which is linked to the Agency for Hydrometeorology in Dushanbe and also, by radio, to downstream communities. Other community flood warning systems are being introduced or proposed by international nongovernment organizations (NGOs) such as Mission East and Oxfam, but most villages will not have flood warning systems under these programs. Even when these simple tools are in place, villages are not trained to use them effectively. 20. The socioeconomic impact of flooding is high. There is a strong link between floods and poverty 5 and there is substantial loss of livelihood after floods. Whereas only 7% of flood victims 5 ADB Floods and the Poor, Water for All. Manila (publication no. 11).

17 5 in the four districts in Khatlon province believe their income was below average before flooding, 71% believe it was below average after flooding. This correlates with estimates that production of grain fell by 70%, of vegetables by 83%, and of grapes by 95% following floods. After floods 38% of cattle and 58% of poultry were lost. Over 96% of houses were seriously or moderately damaged and 54% of the land was flooded and inundated with debris. Disease, deteriorating drinking water quality, water logging of land, and greater emigration are characteristic of the aftermath of floods. 21. The CES is responsible for ensuring that the relevant government, provincial and district departments and communities at risk of flooding are adequately prepared so that the probability of household losses can be lower. The CES has training centers in its central and district offices but it lacks the resources to deliver a comprehensive program of flood preparedness training. However, improvements are now being made with support from international donors. There is no standard system of certification of village preparedness, villages and rapid response teams lack equipment, and there is insufficient coordination at the jamoat (local government) level. There is no regular and routine system of simulations or drills to ensure villages and local governments are well prepared to address flood risks and disasters. Although NGOs are increasingly involved in disaster preparedness work at the village level, there is not enough collaboration between the CES, local governments, and NGOs to create a cohesive and effective flood management system. Finally, flood mitigation efforts are scattered and in some cases inconsistent. A far more standard method to address this issue must be found. 22. Most international experts predict that perennial snow- and icemelt will increase due to global warming and that storms will also increase. The key findings of a major recent climate change analysis 6 indicated that Tajikistan may face an increase in annual, minimum and seasonal mean temperatures; critical changes in precipitation; a rise in the levels of lakes because of glacier degradation; droughts; and other frequent extreme weather events, worsening already serious flood problems. In Khatlon province the prospect is that the summer floods on the Pyanj river may become larger, accelerating the erosion of the Hamadoni flood embankments. On the Kizilsu and Yakhsu rivers, more storms will increase the frequency and severity of floods in Kulyab, Vose and Farkhor. 7 C. Opportunities 23. ADB s disaster and emergency assistance policy (DEAP) 8 provide direction for the proposed project. The DEAP aims to integrate disaster risk management into the development process of developing member countries and to build their disaster and hazard risk management capacity. It also recommends that disaster risk be taken into account in preparing ADB country strategies, plans and projects. A key element of the DEAP is institutionalizing disaster risk management by identifying risks during ADB s country programming schedules and building risk reduction strategies into project plans. In the indicative rolling country operations business plan 9 the proposed Project is expected to address medium- to long-term flood management issues and to promote sustainable, inclusive economic growth in rural communities in selected flood-prone areas, consistent with the overall rural development approach. 6 Global Environment Facility (GEF) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Climate Change in Tajikistan: Where We Are and What to Expect in the Future. 7 The Project will coordinate with the proposed regional technical assistance project: Promoting Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and Pacific. 8 Approved by the Board on 1 June ADB ADB Indicative Rolling Country Operations Business Plan. Manila (approved in May).

18 6 24. A number of related activities also provide lessons for this Project. They include the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Disaster Risk Management Capacity-Building Program, the World Bank s Emergency Flood Assistance Project, 10 the ADB Emergency Flood Rehabilitation Project, 11 and the ADB Strategy for Improved Flood Management 12 (see Appendix 3). 25. The fundamental opportunity presented by the Project is the chance to put in place a comprehensive integrated flood management approach to replace the current ad hoc arrangements. The Project will reduce the severe economic and social costs of floods by promoting the use of combined physical and non-physical approaches to flood protection. 13 On the non-physical side there are three key areas to be addressed under the integrated approach. First, legal and regulatory changes can establish a clear line of authority and responsibility for flood management. This will enable appropriate arrangements for budgets, forecasting, mitigation, maintenance, addressing of floods when they occur, and handling any reconstruction or aftermath. Second, flood forecasting and risk mapping can be arranged and updated so flood risk is better understood, predicted, and mitigated. Third, a combination of the CES, local governments at the district and jamoat levels, villages, and NGOs can work together on effective, properly resourced flood preparedness, evacuation plans, mitigation plans, flood monitoring and alerts, including simulations to confirm readiness, and response teams The introduction of structural flood management measures to improve the flood embankments on the Pyanj, Kizilsu and Yakhsu rivers will substantially lower flood risk. When the current improvement works being carried out on the Pyanj river as part of another ADB project 15 are complete, some flood-prone areas in Hamadoni will be protected to the 1% probability level (an average chance of flooding once in 100 years). These improvements will apply to the first 12 km of embankments. However, further downstream there are damaged embankments near Metintugai which are not being improved. The flood risk in this area is considered to be in the range of 5-10% (an average chance of flooding once in years). To reduce this risk to the same level as that obtained upstream, damaged flood embankments will have to be rehabilitated and canal embankments reinforced. There is an urgent need to study and design better flood protection for the worst flood damaged areas of the Kizilsu and Yakhsu flood plains, where risks may be as high as 50% (flooding once every 2 years). 27. Lowering the maintenance burden of structural improvements in the project area will increase the likelihood of a successful maintenance regime in the medium term. A number of ways of reducing the flood embankment maintenance burden on the Government have been considered, including replacing the current deteriorated and inefficient plant, increasing water fees, contracting out maintenance, voluntary community participation, and low or maintenancefree designs. Of these, the replacement of machinery is considered to be the most practical and beneficial. 10 World Bank Credit 3123-TJ: Emergency Flood Assistance Project for SDR3.800 million approved on 27 August 1998, and supplemental credit of SDR1.500 million approved on 14 December ADB Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors on a Proposed Loan to the Republic of Tajikistan for the Emergency Flood Rehabilitation Assistance Project. Manila (Loan 1714-TAJ[SF], for SDR3.601 million, approved on 2 December. 12 ADB Technical Assistance to the Republic of Tajikistan for Strategy for Improved Flood Management. Manila. 13 ADB Summary of ADB Water Policy Actions--All 40 Policy Actions. Comprehensive Review of ADB s Water Policy Implementation. 14 The proposed project will cover the CES work and local government arrangements for equipment, response teams, and overall NGO/government coordination at the district, jamoat and village levels, while a proposed Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction project, entitled Community Participatory Flood Management, will address the other areas and plans on the community/ngo side. 15 ADB Irrigation Rehabilitation Project. Manila, for $22.72 million equivalent, approved on 10 December.

19 7 28. The opportunities for non-physical improvements include preparation and enactment of legal and institutional reforms and the establishment of an appropriate permanent flood management institution. The seeds of such an institution have already been planted in the CES. Although it is currently under-resourced, the CES is generally recognized to be the focus of disaster management activities in Tajikistan and the repository of existing disaster expertise inherited from the Soviet era. Legal and regulatory enhancements would enable the CES to specify, supervise, and coordinate the disaster-related activities of all the implementing agencies notably, in the case of floods, the MLRWR and the Agency for Hydrometeorology. 29. Further opportunities for legal reform include the removal of ambiguities in existing legislation regarding the responsibility for disseminating flood warnings and responsibility for the design, construction, and maintenance of flood protection structures. Other legal reforms to improve control of developments in the flood plain are needed. Financial reforms to secure annual funding for the flood management activities of the implementing agencies, particularly the operation and maintenance of flood protection works, are also needed. 30. Detailed topographic, social, environmental and economic surveys will evaluate the extent and value of the assets at risk. Computer modeling of flood inundation caused by design floods with probabilities of, for example, 1%, 2%, 4%, 10%, and 20% (average chances of flooding once in 100, 50, 25, 10, and 5 years) as well as the necessary training to build national capacity in this specialty will be used to prepare flood risk maps. Community participation in such surveys will add significantly to their accuracy and usefulness. These maps will become key planning tools with which to delineate flood risk zones. Appropriate flood preparedness programs for each zone will be designed for use by communities, NGOs, local governments and the CES to arrange flood preparedness and amelioration plans. 31. Effective flood forecasting will help both the Government and communities to lower the risk of loss of life, assets, and property. This requires reliable real-time monitoring of precipitation amounts and river levels and the development of flood forecasting models formulated and calibrated against reliable and accessible historical flood data. The possible effects of climate change need to be considered through the application of internationally and nationally recognized scenarios. Rehabilitation and modernization of the Agency for Hydrometeorology s network of climate stations and river gauges all over the country, including telemetry and communication systems, is needed. The hardware and software of the Agency for Hydrometeorology s database system need rehabilitating and updating so they can produce forecasting models. Disaster response and mitigation activities are coordinated by the Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coordination Team (REACT), established in 2001 by the Government and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA). The Project will cooperate with REACT on monitoring and forecasting floods. 32. There is a key opportunity to develop Government community joint participation in the flood management process. Such partnerships have been effective in other parts of the world in mitigating the damage and hardship caused by flooding. At its best, community participation creates a sense of common cause which can convert victims into protagonists and advocates. When Government community partnerships are effective, there is joint active involvement in planning, emergency exercises, mitigation works, patrolling, reporting, local infrastructure maintenance, and warnings. 33. The Project and an associated proposed Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction (JFPR) grant will use this opportunity to engage the Government, communities, and NGOs. The Government s role will include (i) standardization, coordination, simulations, and quality control of local emergency plans, for evacuation and mitigation of floods; (ii) setup, training, and

20 8 equipping of local flood warning systems; (iii) arrangements for early warning and information communications on potential risks and actual flood situations; (iv) training, equipping and supply of rapid response teams; and (iv) post-flood surveys and reconstruction support. Community participation includes mobilizing and arranging disaster evacuation and mitigation plans, setting up voluntary workforces to ease the burden of flood infrastructure maintenance on the Government, establishing communal management and harvesting of a forested riparian buffer to supplement hard flood defenses, conducting community monitoring of rivers and storms to address increases in flood risks, and participating in the simulations and other arrangements to address flood risks and events. III. THE PROPOSED PROJECT A. Impact and Outcome 34. The Project will reduce socioeconomic damage caused by floods in the project area. The outcome of the Project will be effective and sustainable flood management structural facilities, such as flood embankments, and non-physical flood risk mitigation system comprising improved flood preparedness, forecasting and warning, and also strengthened institutional and legal framework concerning flood risk management that takes into account social, environmental and economic factors. B. Outputs 1. Institutional and Legal Reforms 35. The Project will help Government improve laws and regulations to identify appropriate authority to be responsible for flood management activities among relevant government agencies, dissemination of flood warnings, flood preparedness, and maintenance of flood protection structures, and for restricting of the use of land in flood prone areas. 36. Under the component, 116 person-moths of national consulting services were provided to support institutional and legal reform, such as to (i) review existing water code, (ii) review existing legal and institutional arrangements to support the implementation of an integrated flood management system, (iii) review the role of key institutions for the flood management activities, and (iv) assist the role of secretariat for the amendment of water code, and (v) train staff related to flood management activities. 2. Physical Measures 37. To achieve a flood protection level of once in 100 years probability in Hamadoni district 4.8 km of damaged flood embankments will be rehabilitated and 3.5 km of adjacent irrigation canal embankments will be reinforced. Heavy equipment for O&M will be provided to reduce the initial burden of Government expenditure for O&M. 3. Non-physical Measures 38. Flood Risk Maps. Under the Project, topographic social, environmental and economic surveys, and computer modeling of flood inundation areas, risk maps will be prepared and disclosed to the public after consultation with stakeholders for the community development plan, land use plan, and the location of flood shelters.

21 9 39. Flood Preparedness. The flood risk maps will be key planning tools. They will delineate flood risk zones for which flood preparedness programs will be designed. These programs will include annual flood awareness campaigns and evacuation drills at district, community, and village levels and the provision of rapid response team equipment. 40. Flood Forecasting. The Agency for Hydrometeorology s entire network of climate stations and river gauges in the project area will be rehabilitated and modernized. The hardware and software components of the database will be upgraded in order to facilitate the development of the forecasting models. 41. Flood Warning. The accuracy and timeliness of flood warning triggers in the project area will be improved. In future each flood risk area will receive warnings with a lead time of at least 3 hours and flood water depth forecasts will be accurate to within 0.5 m. Equipment will be provided and villagers will be trained in flood monitoring. 4. Capacity Building for Efficient Project Management 42. To facilitate Project implementation, the existing PMO under MLRWR will be expanded for the PMO of the Project instead of establishing a new PMO. A group of international and national consultants will support the PMO and train staff of the PMO and project implementation offices (PIOs) in project management. C. Special Features 43. The Project represents a shift from the previous reactive infrastructure-oriented flood control to a comprehensive, integrated and proactive approach to the management of floods. By including flood warning, public awareness, flood risk maps, and community evacuation plans, the Project will help people to address such risks before they occur. A key feature of this integrated approach is that people living in flood risk areas will be aware of the risk of floods, be prepared for them, and take responsibility for monitoring and ameliorating flood risk. 44. This is the first ADB-funded flood-related project in Tajikistan to be implemented through three agencies in an integrated manner. The MLRWR will operate the PMO and construct physical structures; the Agency for Hydrometeorology will manage the hydrometeorological network and flood forecasting; and the CES will manage flood risk mapping, flood preparedness, and coordination with local governments and rural communities. 45. The very high maintenance needs of the flood protection embankments in the project area are a special feature of the project. The main cause of the breach in Hamadoni in 2005 was poor maintenance of the embankments, which are prone to severe damage at high water levels, especially at the spurs. It is difficult to inspect such damage because, even outside the flood season, the toes of the embankments are submerged under fast flowing water. The recent and proposed embankment rehabilitation will be quickly undermined if proper O&M is not carried out. To avoid this, the Government has asked ADB to replace the deteriorated heavy equipment currently used for O&M in order to reduce its financial burden. The Government is strongly committed to funding the O&M of the new heavy equipment and the labor and materials required to maintain the embankments. D. Cost Estimates 46. The project investment cost is estimated at $28,499,700 equivalent, including taxes and duties of $4,898,100, physical and price contingencies of $4,913,500, and $885,100 in interest

22 10 charges during implementation. Cost estimates by project component are summarized in Table 1, while the detailed cost estimates are provided in Appendix 5. Table 1: Project Investment Plan ($ 000) Item Amounts a A. Base Cost b 1. Policy Reform Physical Measures 18, Non-physical Measures 1, Capacity Building for Efficient Project Management 2,654.6 Subtotal (A) 22,701.1 B. Contingencies c 4,913.5 C. Financing Charges during Implementation Total (A+B+C) 28,499.7 d a Includes taxes and duties of $4,898,100 b In mid-2007 prices c Physical contingencies computed at 16% for civil works; and 10% for field research and development, training, surveys and studies d Includes interest, computed at 1% per annum during construction Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. E. Financing Plan 47. The Government has requested ADB to provide a loan equivalent to $22.0 million from ADB s Special Funds resources to help finance the Project. The loan will have a 32-year term, including a grace period of 8 years, an interest rate of 1% yearly during the grace period and 1.5% yearly thereafter, and such other terms and conditions as are set forth in the loan agreement. All taxes and duties will be financed by the Government. Table 2: Financing Plan ($ million) Source Total % Asian Development Bank Loan Government Total Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. F. Implementation Arrangements 1. Project Management 48. The management arrangements for the Project consist of a project steering committee (PSC), an executing agency (EA), a project management office (PMO) and three project implementation offices (PIOs). The organization chart is attached as Appendix Within three months of the date of the loan effectiveness, the Government will establish a Project Steering Committee (PSC) to (i) provide policy guidance on the implementation of the Project activities and flood management activities financed by other donors; (ii) monitor Project

23 11 impacts; (iii) review and evaluate Project performance; (iv) review Project audits; and (v) ensure close coordination among agencies involved in flood management projects. The PSC will be chaired by the First Deputy Prime Minister and comprising senior staff of MLRWR, MAEP, CES, and other relevant ministries and agencies. The PSC will be located in the President s Office and shall meet twice a year. The PSC s sectariat will be located in the PMO. 50. MLRWR as the EA will be responsible for overall execution and coordination of the Project, and the timely submission to ADB of (i) withdrawal applications; (ii) consolidated Project progress and other reports; (iii) consolidated audited accounts of the Project, MLRWR will also implement Institutional and Legal Reform component and Improvement of Physical Infrastructure. 51. MAEP will be the Implementing Agency for rehabilitation and modernization of the network of climate stations and river all over the country and upgrading hardware and software to facilitate the development of the forecasting models; CES will be the Implementing Agency for (i) developing flood risk maps based on new topographic social environmental surveys and computer modeling of flood prone areas, (ii) developing appropriate flood preparedness program and conducting annual flood awareness campaigns and evacuation drills at district and community levels; and (iii) improving the accuracy and timeliness of the existing flood warning triggers in the Project area so that each flood prone area receives flood warnings. 52. The project management office set up under the ongoing ADB-financed Irrigation Rehabilitation Project (footnote 15) will serve as the PMO for this Project. The PMO will be responsible for (i) implementing Project activities in accordance with the Project design; (ii) coordinating activities between PIOs and other agencies concerned; (iii) ensuring compliance with environmental requirements and other safeguard measures; (iv) maintaining appropriate accounts, including reports on withdrawal applications and disbursement; (v) carrying out procurement activities; and (vi) preparing quarterly progress and other reports in format acceptable to ADB. At all times throughout Project implementation, PMO remains adequately staffed with professional and clerical personnel with the necessary experience and expertise in finance, accounting, procurement and contract administration. 53. Within three months of the loan effectiveness, each of the PMO, MAEP, and CES establishes an adequately staffed PIO. Each PIO will be responsible for the day-to-day implementation of the respective component of the Project, including (i) supervision of contractors and consultants; (ii) preparation of the draft progress report and other necessary related documents; and (iii) coordination of the activities under the respective component. 2. Implementation Period 54. The Project will be implemented from 2008 to 2013 with the project completion expected by December The closing date for disbursement will be 6 months from the date of project completion. The implementation schedule is shown in Appendix Procurement 55. All ADB-financed procurement will follow ADB s Procurement Guidelines (2007, as amended from time to time). ADB will finance procurement of civil works, vehicles, materials and equipment as described in the procurement plan (Appendix 8). Contracts valued in excess of $1 million will be procured through international competitive bidding (ICB) Preference will be given to the domestic contractors for civil works.