Mexico s Special Program for Climate Change (PECC)

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1 Mexico s Special Program for Climate Change (PECC) Julia Martínez Fernández Coordinator of the Climate Change Program National Institute of Ecology INE / 9 June 2009

2 Most important effects of climate change in Mexico 1. Growing desertification in the Central and North portions of Mexico. Reduction of agricultural potential. Difficulties for water supply in several areas. 2. Flooding in coastal areas. 3. Increase of extreme hydro-meteorological events. 4. General effects in forest areas (forest degradation and increase in fires) and hydrological effects. 5. Loss of biodiversity. 6. Impacts on human health.

3 Climate change scenarios for Mexico: Expected changes in temperature and precipitation Very likely that mean temperature in Mexico will increase by 2 to 4 C by 2080, mainly in the northern part of Mexico. In the Winter, very likely that precipitation will decrease by 15% in the central part of the country, and by 5% in the region around the Gulf of Mexico. In the Summer, precipitation may decrease by 5% in the central part of Mexico. Delays on the beginning of the rain season are expected, and the season will likely extend to the Autumn in many parts of the country.

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5 GHG Inventory update (in process) Preliminary data: GHG emissions of energy sector : 430 MTCO2e Estimated national GHG emissions: 715 MtCO 2 e 430 Mton COeq.

6 Evolution of CO 2 emissions SOURCE: CMM Prepared with data from Balance Nacional Energético (BNE) [National Energy Balance] 2004, Ministry of Energy (SENER) 2005; Outlooks for the Electrical Sector, Natural Gas Sector, Liquefied Propane Gas Sector and Petroleum Sector, , Ministry of Energy 2005.

7 Roadmap for Climate Change Policy in Mexico Scientific research Analysis of national circumstances National greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory GHG emissions, concentrations and impacts modeling, scenarios and projections Vulnerability assessments to climate variability and extreme events Public awareness strategies Design and analysis of policies for GHG mitigation and adaptation to climate change Policy implementation at national, regional and local scales, and at general or sector-specific levels

8 National Development Plan ( ) Eje 4. Environmental sustainability 4.6 Climate Change OBJECTIVE 10 To reduce GHG emissions OBJECTIVE 11 To promote adaptation measures to face climate change

9 Interministerial Climate Change Commission The Inter Ministerial Climate Change Commission (ICCC) was established for the purpose of coordinating the actions of the agencies and entities of the Mexican Federal Government related to: the design and implementation of national policies for preventing and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions adapting to the effects of climate change and, in general promoting the development of climate change action programs and strategies geared to the fulfillment of the commitments made by Mexico within the UNFCCC and other instruments deriving from it, in particular the Kyoto Protocol.

10 Prospective Scenario Emissions and growth are being decupled Energy Intensity and per capita CO2 emissions

11 The Special Program on Climate Change Program (PECC) PECC will stablish quantitative mitigation and adaptation goals for the period In 2012 the mitigation goal is roughly 50 MtCO2e (about 8% of total emissions). For the period , twelve groups of measures account for % of the GHG potential For the long term (2050) Mexico aspires to reduce emissions by 50% in reference to year In the period , the Mexican oil and gas industry will invest US$ 7,000 million

12 PECC Index A. Long term vision A national (aspirational) goal by2050 aligned to the required global mitigation actions B. Adaptation policy Actions to be adopted in different sectors and following three stages from now to C. Mitigation policy Emission reductions to 2012, mainly in: 1. LULUCF, 2. energy generation, 3. energy use, 4.solid waste and wastewater. Framework to create a carbon market D. Cross cutting issues International policy / Economics of climate change / Institutional adjustments / R&D / Capacity building & communication

13 Long term vision and mitigation estimates under different asumptions 1 The World Bank: México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono: MEDEC 2 McKinsey, con el Centro Mario Molina: Low Carbon Growth: a Potential Path for Mexico

14 MEDEC Study This study is part of the Clean Energy Investment Framework that seeks to assist its client countries to address climate change, with an initial focus on the five developing countries of China, Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa. Within this framework, the World Bank proposes to develop a Low Carbon Development Scenario Analysis in Mexico, including identifying a program of low carbon investments that could be funded by international and domestic resources. The energy sector Fixed energy end use (residential, commercial, public buildings, industrial and agricultural) sectors Forestry, agriculture, cattle raising, waste and bioenergy The transport sector Source:The World Bank: México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono: MEDEC

15 MEDEC Study Under the Baseline Scenario, total CO 2 emissions from power generation increase by 230 percent from 138 Mt CO 2 e in 2008 to 312 Mt CO 2 e in 2030 Installed Capacity in 2030: Baseline vs. MEDEC (GW) Under the low-carbon MEDEC scenario, the share of coal would decline from 28 to 4 percent, while the contribution of lowcarbon technologies would increase substantially: wind increases from 1 to 11 % geothermal from 2 to 8 % biomass from 0 to 10 % hydro from 23 to 26 % Source: The World Bank: México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono: MEDEC

16 Low-Carbon Growth A Potential Path for Mexico By using existing and near-commercial technologies, Mexico has the potential to peak GHG emissions by 2015 and reduce them by 25 percent versus 2005 levels by 2030 this is 54 percent below the point emissions would reach without action. Source: McKinsey, Centro Mario Molina: Low Carbon Growth: a Potential Path for Mexico

17 National carbon abatement cost curve for Mexico GHG abatement cost curve for Mexico in 2030 Cost, US$/tCO2e Source: McKinsey, Centro Mario Molina: Low Carbon Growth: a Potential Path for Mexico

18 Low-Carbon Growth A Potential Path for Mexico Reducing emissions from the power sector (26 percent of total abatement opportunity). The share of renewable in the power sector could be increased from 16 percent in 2005 to nearly 50 percent of generation in 2030, most notably from wind, solar, and hydro power. Source: McKinsey, Centro Mario Molina: Low Carbon Growth: a Potential Path for Mexico

19 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TENTION Julia Martínez Fernández Coordinator of the Climate Change Program National Institute of Ecology INE / jmartine@ine.gob.mx