Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo; Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Regina

Transcription

1 Evaluating climate risks and developing adaptation strategies to manage risk and take advantage of a warming climate - examples from and for business Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo; Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Regina The challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come [ ] Once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the G20 s Financial Stability Board. SustainTech 2018, 22 March 2018, Saskatoon

2 Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure climate variability vulnerability climate opportunities coping strategy global warming carbon tax climate risks governance oversight responsibility adaptive capacity climate change denial carbon capture and storage extreme weather

3 Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure climate variability vulnerability climate opportunities coping strategy global warming carbon tax climate risks governance oversight responsibility adaptive capacity climate change denial carbon capture and storage extreme weather

4 Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure climate variability vulnerability climate opportunities coping strategy global warming carbon tax climate risks governance oversight responsibility adaptive capacity climate change denial carbon capture and storage extreme weather

5 Climate change is a business problem Financial Times, May 24, 2014 Business risk from climate change now top of mind for Canada s corporate boards Globe and Mail, November 22, 2017 Business leaders face many questions with the impacts of climate change Globe and Mail, March 9, 2018 Four Reasons Climate Change Adaptation Should be on Every Executive's Radar Network for Business Sustainability, September 28, 2017 Carney's Climate Fight Gets $6.3 Trillion Boost From Firms Bloomberg, December 12, 2017 More Than 900 Examples Of How Climate Change Affects Business Forbes, March 15, 2017

6 Climate Change as a Business Issue FEI Canada is the all industry professional membership association for senior financial executives

7 Canada s First Regional Climate Service In 1998, the federal government proposed a Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network and a physical node where the effects of climate are significant and where some adaptation research capacity and coordination already exists. On March 24, 2000, Minister of Natural Resources, Ralph Goodale, announced the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, Canada s first regional climate center - a partnership of the governments of Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

8 More than 100 PARC Research Projects Including some some major initiatives ($100K to > $2M over 2-5 years): C-CIARN Prairies, : NRCan Manitoba Hydro Research Chairs, Climate Change Scenarios, Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment, : GoA Biophysical Impact Assessment / SaskAdapt, : GoS Prairies Chapter of the National Assessment, : NRCan Phase 1 of the Prairies RAC, : NRCan Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes (VACEA), : NSERC, SSHRC, IDRC South Saskatchewan River Basin Adaptation Project, : WaterSMART Solutions / NSERC Urban Water Management in the Context of Climate Change, : EPCOR, City of Calgary, AB Innovates Water Resources Challenges in a Changing Climate, : ECCC

9 More than 400 inquiries from government agencies, communities, and public and professional organizations, for example: Conference Board of Canada Town of Viking, AB AB Epidemiology Association SK Federal Council Industrial Vegetation Management Assoc of AB AB Agriculture and Rural Development Consulting Engineers of SK Engineers Canada Canadian Institute of Public Health Inspectors MB Hydro National Roundtable on Environment and Economy Prairie Provinces Water Board APEGGA Swift Current Creek Watershed Stewards SK Soil Conservation Assoc City of Grande Prairie, AB Prairie Improvement Network Old Wives Watershed Assoc SK Environmental Industry Managers Assoc SK Institute of Agrology Prairie Conservation Action Plan Parkland Conservation Farm Agricultural Service Boards of Alberta Red River Basin Commission Kanai Blood Indian Tribe MB Conservation AB Lake Management Society Western Boreal Growth and Yield Association SE AB Watershed Alliance Pacific NW Economic Region Mountain Parks Heritage Interpretation Association Climate Change Central Royal SK Museum Partners for the SK River Bain Bow River Basin Council APEGS Grande Prairie Chamber of Conference Sturgeon River Watershed Alliance Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada SK Ministry of Advanced Education National Council of Women SK Irrigation Projects Assoc Society for Range Management Transportation Assoc of Canada AB Caucus - House of Commons Yorkton Aircraft Service Sierra Club AB Irrigation Projects Assoc Canadian Institute of Forestry Rotary Club of Canmore International Mountaineering Federation SK Forest Centre Agency Chiefs Tribal Council Model Forests Banff Town Council Files Hills Qu Appelle Tribal Council Trans Canada Corporation Taber, AB SaskPower TransGas Limited

10 Temperature Anomaly ( C) January 2018 was the 397 th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average Below average Above average

11

12 PAGES2k Consortium A global multi-proxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Nature Scientific Data

13 Average Minimum Daily Winter Temperature ( C), Regina, SK,

14 GCM: Global Climate Model RCM: Regional Climate Model

15 GCM and RCM grids

16 Temperature Change ( C) Projected Climate Changes, Western Canada versus winter Much Warmer and Wetter Warmer Possibly Drier summer Precipitation Change (%) Source: PCIC

17 Climate Moisture Index Anomaly (mm), May-June-July, western Canada From 11 RCMs wettest driest

18

19 Temperature Change ( C) Projected Climate Changes in Winter winter Precipitation Change (%) Source: PCIC

20 Temperature Change ( C) Projected Climate Changes, CGCM3, from to Precipitation Change (%)

21

22

23 July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30

24

25 Mean Water Year Flow (m 3 /s) South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat,

26 North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton,

27 SW Saskatchewan September 2015

28 Address Information Gaps: In order to expand The City s understanding of historical drought conditions it is important to reevaluate historical drought using tree ring analysis historically conducted by the David Sauchyn (University of Saskatchewan [sic])

29 The South Saskatchewan River Basin - Adaptation to Climate Variability Phases 1-3 Peach-Athabaca River Basin Adaptation to Climate Variability

30

31 EPCOR Utilities Ltd provides water supply and wastewater treatment to 85 communities in western Canada March 2007: Traditional planning would consider flow characteristics of the raw water streams as knowns in the system. [ that is, a stationary climate and water regime]

32 On May 2nd [1796] William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river.

33 Water-Year Flow (m 3 /s) 900 years of weekly flows, North Saskatchewan River Sauchyn and Ilich, 2017, WRR

34 Canadian Association on Water Quality Conference, 21 February 2012, Burlington ON Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Municipal Source Water Supply L. Gyurek, S. Craik, & S. Neufeld, EPCOR Water Services Inc. a better understanding of natural hydroclimatic variability in surface waters, water utilities including EPCOR are revisiting this assumption of a static water supply. Specifically EPCOR supported collaborative research with the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative a thousand year record of hydroclimatic variability This work will allow EPCOR to better assess future risks to water supply and quality and develop risk mitigation strategies.

35 Neufeld (2016)

36 December 2014: Source Water Protection Plan To address potential impacts of climate change on water supply, EPCOR partnered with Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) Understanding that water resources are not a stationary, water management must be adjusted to a hydrological cycle which is increasingly sensitive to the timing and frequency of rainfall events. PARC is continuing to work with EPCOR to refine predictions and probabilities of water flow on a monthly basis in order to inform planning.

37 Long-term variability and reliability of the flow of the Athabasca River Sauchyn, DJ, St Jacques, J-M, Luckman, BH Long-term reliability of the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada) as the water source for oil sands mining, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 112 no. 41, , DOI /pnas

38 Teck, which has not committed to building the mega-mine [260,000 barrels of oil per day], has pegged the cost of Frontier at roughly $20.6-billion (Globe and Mail, 9 July 2015) We would like to use your tree rings to inform future stages of planning of a proposed oil sands mining project

39 Weekly Flow Available to the Industry (m³/s) Hydroclimatic Scenarios for Proposed $20.6B Frontier Mine * Historical ( ) Synthetic (3000 years) Tree ring (532 years) Climate Change, (Year 2026) Climate Change, (Year 2066) Probability of Exceedance (%) * Canada s largest diversified mining company Long et al. 2016

40 Estimated water demand for solution potash production Solution mine million m 3 /yr Water supply Watershed Operating mines: Belle Plaine 26.0 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu Appelle River Patience Lake n/a Patience Lake South Saskatchewan River K + S 15.5 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu Appelle River Approved developments: Wynyard n/a Blairmore Formation Qu Appelle River Milestone 21.9 Regina wastewater treatment plant Qu Appelle River Vale 21.0 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu Appelle River Southey max 14.5 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu Appelle River Developments under review: Muskowekwan 13.1 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu Appelle River

41 Potash Mining Canada is the primary potash producer and exporter. 96% of Canadian potash is produced in Saskatchewan by 11 mines. 9 new projects: All, but one, solution method; 6 approved; 1 mine started its operation in May. 7 expansion projects. Water use: 2010: 22M m : 127M m 3 Andreichuk. 2017

42 42

43 Canada in a Changing Climate: Assessing the Knowledge for Action 2020 Release Date Canada in a Changing Climate - Regional Perspectives British Columbia Prairies* Ontario Quebec Atlantic Provinces Northern Canada * Dr. D. Sauchyn, Lead Author Canada in a Changing Climate- National Issues Our Society Urban Rural Indigenous Our Environment Water Resources Ecosystem Services Our Economy Costing Impacts and Adaptation Economic Sector Perspectives Looking Forward International Dimensions New and Emerging Issues

44 44 A new approach includes: Key messages: to focus chapters on priority issues Multiple products released throughout the process; include writing for multiple audiences More inclusive and transparent process input from stakeholders and public Inclusion of Indigenous knowledge (guidance to be provided) Early and sustained engagement of amplifier organizations; collaborative process and products All writing and figures developed for digital delivery

45 Resilient Vulnerable Time

46 For more information: The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative was created in 2000, as a partnership of the governments of Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. sauchyn@uregina.ca